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| Turkish President Erdogan visiting the US from May 16 |
Al-Montor in an editorial questions if Turkey’s fractured opposition could unite and produce a leader like French
presidential winner Emmanuel Macron, driven by shared apprehension over
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule? Can the critical presidential
election in 2019
mobilize the opposition against him?
It's possible on paper, for the constitutional changes narrowly approved
in the April 16 referendum have changed the rules of the game. Under
the proportional representation system of the outgoing parliamentary
regime, removing Erdogan and the
Justice and Development Party
(AKP) from power was virtually impossible under existing political
balances.
The new rules, however, allow an abrupt change in the seat of
power by offering ground for alliances in the second round of the
presidential vote. In other words, the new constitutional order
that Erdogan wanted so badly and ultimately obtained risks becoming a
political trap for him.
This possibility has stirred heated debate in Turkey since the
referendum, with the opposition encouraged by the first serious signs
that Erdogan can be defeated.
Despite the unfair campaign conditions and
allegations of electoral fraud, the “yes” camp came up with only 51% of
the vote, about 10 fewer percentage points than the combined vote the
AKP and its referendum ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), got
in the general elections in 2015. In addition, the “no” vote prevailed
in 17 major urban centers, including the country’s three biggest cities.
Thee fragility of Erdogan’s victory has given a boost to a gloomy opposition
that expected a much worse outcome and animated the political scene.
Veteran politician
Deniz Baykal, former head of the main opposition
Republican People’s Party
(CHP) and still an influential parliament member, argued in a May 1
interview that the opposition should unite around a common candidate for
the 2019 election, the first under the amended constitution.
If CHP
chair Kemal Kilicdaroglu does not plan to run for president, he should
consider stepping down to allow for a stronger mobilization for the
polls, Baykal argued. In another surprise statement, he suggested that
former President
Abdullah Gul, once Erdogan’s right-hand man, could be considered a joint candidate for the “no” camp.
With his veiled affirmation of Gul — an AKP founder at odds with Erdogan
— as a possible candidate to unite the opposition, Baykal put into
words something that many have silently thought of as a way to stop
Erdogan. The mere utterance of this prospect was enough to rattle AKP
ranks.
Baykal’s suggestion for a leadership change in the CHP also rattled
the main opposition, sparking an internal power struggle and calls for
an
extraordinary party convention. The party’s in-house conflicts and the issue of whom it will back in the 2019 polls suddenly became intertwined.
Even more importantly, the hard-pressed CHP leader made it clear that the
search for alliances
for 2019 had already begun. “It would be wrong to behave as if the
entire 49% [of the ‘no’ vote] belongs to us and embark on determining a
candidate accordingly,” Kilicdaroglu said in a May 9 address to fellow
party members in the parliament, stressing that he had consulted with
the heads of more than 50 civil society organizations and was planning
to visit fellow party leaders to discuss the process.
Political activity on the opposition’s left will clearly increase in
this framework. Yet, it is the conservative camp that will make any
alliance against Erdogan relevant and strong. At the referendum, 10% of
AKP voters defied Erdogan, voting against the amendments. Will this
group expand ahead of 2019? And even more importantly, will it become
politicized? Those are vital questions for the coming period that are
simmering anew in conservative quarters following Baykal’s mention of
Gul as a possible joint candidate.
AKP officials urged Gul to speak out and clarify whether he does intend
to confront Erdogan in the presidential race, while Erdogan slammed the
idea as an effort to sow discord in the AKP ranks.
True to form, Gul remained cautious, neither opening nor closing the
door. Speaking on May 5, he reiterated that he was keeping away from
active politics, but at the same time stressed his “responsibility to
share his knowledge and experience for the sake of the country.”
The AKP’s first prime minister and president, Gul has remained an
important figure for the party and Turkish politics since completing his
presidential term in 2014. Having fallen out with Erdogan over his
policies after 2013, Gul represents the reformist and liberal leaning of
the AKP’s original philosophy. As such, he enjoys a certain sympathy in
opposition quarters and stands a chance of luring support from across
the political spectrum should he decide to challenge Erdogan in the
presidential race. So far, the non-confrontational Gul has held back
from speaking out about his differences with Erdogan and creating
discord and division in the AKP. The main reason was probably his belief
that he had little chance of prevailing over Erdogan.
But given the growing discontent among conservatives and former AKP
heavyweights, Erdogan’s continued pursuit of one-man rule could now
upset the equilibrium. In his May 5 remarks, Gul seemed to speak on
behalf of a certain group and orientation. Referring to vicious attacks
from pro-government quarters, he said, “I condemn the unmentionable
words and the foul language used against the AKP's real pioneers and
founders and the unethical behavior within the party. Everybody now
knows how this is being orchestrated.” Alluding to Erdogan, he expressed
regret at “the silence in the face of all this.”
If an alliance emerges spontaneously around him, the possibility of Gul
making a political move remains on the table in the new environment
after the referendum. As Erdogan’s authoritarianism deepens and economic
or foreign policy crises erupt, Gul is likely to remain relevant ahead
of the critical election in 2019.
The key question, however, is whether the opposition — displeased and
worried but still scattered and confused — can organize politically to
mount a serious challenge. One must admit that this is no easy prospect.
The 49% “no” camp includes antagonistic political movements whose
reasons for rejecting the constitutional changes do not necessarily
overlap, meaning that their ability to agree on and vote for a joint
candidate cannot be assumed.
Moreover, Turkey’s political culture lacks any strong traditions of
electoral alliances and compromise. Reconciliation between the MHP’s
dissident naysayers and the Kurds, or between the conservatives and the
left, seems quite difficult. Finally, the AKP remains the country’s
strongest and best-organized political machine, with its popular support
still at about 44% despite the recent hemorrhage.
All those developments are putting Turkish politics on a new and uncharted track.
US president Trump, who was the first Western Head Of State to
congratulate Mr. Erdogan on his so-called referendum, victory, also did
not mention the Turkish President's human rights abuses, including the
imprisonment of journalists, politicians, civil servants and educators.
President Erdogan will be hosted by the US President in the White House when he visits the US starting May 16..
Given the unstable political situation in Turkey, President Trump might
once again be betting on the wrong horse and eventually shoot himself in
the foot ?
EU-Digest
