Europen Heat Waves to worsen study predicts

Study predicts worsening killer heat waves in Europe

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Britain: Ukip to team up in 'unholy alliance' with Steve Bannon's new far right European movement

Ukip has pledged to work with Steve Bannon’s new European alt-right movement, forging what critics have branded an “unholy alliance” to bring down the EU and fuel populism across the continent.

Mr Bannon, a former investment banker who founded the website Breitbart, has pledged to bolster the continent’s far right with a new foundation called The Movement that would dole out resources to eurosceptics and anti-EU populists.

The former chief strategist of Donald Trump has rattled Brussels after stating his intention to create a “supergroup” in the European parliament after next’s year’s EU elections, with extreme right-wingers taking as many as a third of the legislature’s seats.

Though Ukip MEPs will not be able to participate directly in the parliament because of Brexit, a spokesperson pledged that the party would share experience with Mr Bannon’s project to give it a leg up, stating they expected the group to have a “large impact” on European politics and hoped for “a new army of eurosceptic MEPs”.

Mr Bannon’s move into Europe also appears set to have an impact on the dynamics of Brexit talks, with one source close to Brexit negotiations telling The Independent that Brussels has been spooked by the alt-right project.

As a result, EU officials are increasingly resistant to calls for the Article 50 negotiating period to be extended, so as to avoid eurosceptic Britain participating in the European parliament elections scheduled for next May.

The EU is said to fear that such an outcome would see Ukip, which won the 2014 European elections in the UK, return to the parliament and bolster the numbers of Mr Bannon’s new anti-EU group.

Note EU-Digest: Democratic EU member states and the EU Commission better wake-up to this threat, which certainly is no laughing matter and must be taken very seriously. 

Read more: Ukip to team up in 'unholy alliance' with Steve Bannon's new far right European movement | The Independent

Turkey: The pastor, the banker, and the irresistible drama in Turkish-US relations

US President Donald Trump once looked to be Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s biggest fan, uttering at a recent NATO summit: “I like him, I like him.” No longer.

This week, the US Treasury announced sanctions on two Turkish ministers over the case of Andrew Brunson, an American pastor who has been in jail for 21 months and who has been the subject of months of secret negotiations between Ankara and Washington.

Although the move is symbolic – given the plethora of bilateral disputes between the sides and Turkey’s drift away from liberal Western norms – the Trump administration’s decision could become a historic milestone for Turkey’s position in the West.

Nonetheless, in the unpredictable global environment we live in and with volatile leaders on both sides, it is also possible that this will end up being a detour in relations between the two long-time allies. As happened with Russia after the Turkish air force downed a Russian fighter jet in 2015, and with Germany following the Turkish authorities’ arrest of two dozen German citizens last summer, this crisis might blow over in seven or eight months, leading first to a thaw and then to normalisation.

Still, the events of this week are momentous – the first serious fissure between Ankara and Washington since the 1975 US arms embargo on Turkey following the Turkish incursion into Cyprus.

Using the Magnitsky Act, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Turkish Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gül and Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu, designating them “leaders of Turkish government organizations responsible for implementing Turkey’s serious human rights abuses” – and, as such, accountable for the decision to persecute Brunson on trumped-up charges.

Brunson has been living in Turkey for 23 years, running a small protestant church in Izmir. He was caught up in Turkey’s massive dragnet after the coup attempt, accused of “supporting terrorism” – as most foreign nationals detained during that period were – by way of his alleged links with both the Gülen movement and Kurdish separatists. It took more than a year for the authorities to produce an indictment – which turned out to be a jumble of espionage charges, secret testimonies, allegations of links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and local Gülenists, and an insidious plot to create an independent “Kurdistan” through the Christianisation of Syrian-Kurdish immigrants. A pro-government newspaper even claimed that, had the coup attempt been successful, Brunson would have been appointed as director of the CIA
.

It is troubling, if not unusual, for Turkish prosecutors to come up with wild accusations against foreign detainees. The practice reflects, above all, the emergence of a deeply paranoid security state that senses a threat from, as opposed to camaraderie with, Turkey’s traditional Western allies. German-Turkish journalist Deniz Yücel and human rights activist Peter Steudtner were similarly accused of “aiding an armed terrorist group”. The perception that the American “deep state” is behind the coup attempt and is harbouring Fethullah Gülen – a US-based cleric whose supporters played a leading role in the event – has now become the standard view in the Turkish bureaucracy. Turkey’s new national security ideology casts suspicion on foreigners, human rights activists, journalists, and liberal-leaning non-governmental organisations for knowingly or unknowingly participating in an effort to weaken or destroy Turkey.

But Brunson’s case is unique because his name has emerged as a rallying cry for the evangelical community in the United States – ultimately making the fate of the Presbyterian pastor a key issue in the strained Turkish-US relationship. When Erdogan held his first official meeting with Trump in Washington in May 2016, the White House organised a prayer vigil calling for Brunson’s release. 

Trump brought up the case three times during a luncheon with Erdogan that day and during subsequent phone conversations with Erdogan. Meanwhile, Congress has held hearings on the case and referred to Brunson in various legislative bills on Turkey. Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Trump supporters such as Jay Sekulow – an attorney on the president’s legal team who leads the American Center for Law and Justice – have all been involved in the Brunson saga. In this way, demands for Brunson’s release have become a permanent fixture in Turkey’s messy alliance with Washington.

Of course, the alliance is no less steady than a tired marriage mired in bickering and a litany of mutual grievances. Ankara has never quite forgiven Washington for not handing over Gülen. Turkey also objects to US support for Syrian Kurds affiliated with the PKK in the fight against the Islamic State group (ISIS). On top of this, the Turkish president has lashed out at the prosecution of Halkbank executive Hakan Atilla in a New York court case concerning the evasion of US sanctions on Iran. As Halkbank is one of Turkey’s largest state banks, Ankara fears that a US Treasury fine on the institution would trigger a domino effect in the Turkish financial system, at a time when the economy is experiencing a serious downturn.

In Trump, Ankara once had a sympathetic ear. From the get-go, the US president seemed eager to build a good relationship with Turkey’s strongman leader. This accorded with the prevailing view of the foreign policy establishment in Washington, which continues to believe that it is important to keep Turkey anchored to the West. However, Erdogan’s anti-Western rhetoric, poor human rights record, and decision to purchase Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems have all made it harder for American friends of Turkey to make the case for improved relations. US officials have publicly warned that Turkey’s purchase of S-400s would jeopardise NATO’s defences and could result in US sanctions.

Meanwhile, Congress has introduced legislation that threatens to block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and also discusses the case of Brunson and Turkey’s imprisonment of US citizens and consular employees. (Several other US citizens, and two Turkish citizens who are US consular employees, remain in custody in Turkey; a third remains under house arrest.)

 One of the most dispiriting aspects of all this is that Turkey’s hostage diplomacy sometimes works. Ankara’s decision to return Yücel to Germany has led to the normalization of relations with Berlin and ended an unofficial German embargo on arms sales to Turkey.

 

Last week, the Turkish courts released Brunson from jail and put him under house arrest at his home in Izmir. But Washington saw this as a half-measure. Both Trump and Pence took to Twitter to threaten sanctions if Brunson was not released. US officials continued quietly looking into the possibility of using the Magnitsky Act to penalise Ankara

.

This drama even includes an Israeli sideshow. In expectation of Brunson’s release, Trump reached out to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to ask for the release of Turkish activist Ebru Ozkan, who Israel jailed for allegedly aiding Hamas. The 27-year-old was released on 11 June, the day after Trump’s call. 

Erdogan has recently acknowledged as much, but said this week that Turkey never entertained the idea of a direct swap for Brunson. In a meeting this week, Turkey’s National Security Council said that “threatening” rhetoric against Turkey was “unacceptable.” 

 

Even in difficult marriages, divorce is not an easy choice. In the case of Turkish-US relations, there have always been considerations and strategic imperatives that prevented harsh measures against Ankara – such as Washington’s reliance on Incirlik Air Base, and goals of keeping Turkey out of Russia’s arms and maintaining an important NATO alliance in the Middle East.

But the mood in Washington seemed to change very fast this week. Following Trump’s threat of “large sanctions” on Turkey, Turkish officials attempted a quiet diplomacy with the US, offering to release Brunson at his next hearing in October. However, they appear to have misjudged Washington’s patience with the matter, as the sanctions announced this week suggest.

It is hard to predict how long this saga will continue but, as one US official noted, “this is just the beginning [of US measures]. Brunson must be released in the end.” Meanwhile, the knotty set of problems in the Turkey-US relationship – from S-400s to Syrian Kurds, F-35s, and the Halkbank fine – have all somehow become intertwined, with Brunson at the centre of it all.

Note EU-Digest: Again the dirty game of power politics. Also, what is quite interesting to note is that the US government leaders in the past and present have never been able to give some clear picture on the status of the Gülen movement in the US. What kind of a deal has the US with him, and why are they so tight-lipped about why he was allowed "to set up shop" in the US?

Read more: The pastor, the banker, and the irresistible drama in Turkish-US relations | European Council on Foreign Relations

Global Politics: U.S. Risks Losing World Power to China and Russia by Splitting with Allies on Iran, Experts Say - by Tom O'Connor

The U.S. could risk forfeiting its central role on the international stage both politically and economically by splitting with its allies and other major powers that oppose upcoming sanctions against Iran, according to two former State Department officials who helped craft the 2015 nuclear deal.

In line with President Donald Trump's withdrawal from a 2015 nuclear agreement in May, the U.S. was set to impose Monday the first batch of sanctions that would affect Iran, as well as European and other international companies. The decision would be only the latest of a series of schisms between the Trump administration and the EU, which has continued to endorse the Iran deal.

When asked by Newsweek if top U.S. rivals China and Russia could stand to benefit from the split, former State Department Deputy Lead Coordinator and Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation Jarrett Blanc said "yes."

"This is not strategic behavior, we're all over the map, we don't have a list of priorities, we're not relating issue A to issue B and so then of course that puts in a stronger position anyone who can set their priorities and tie these issues together,"  Blanc said Wednesday during a conference call hosted by progressive think tank Diplomacy Works, based in Washington, D.C.

Read more: U.S. Risks Losing World Power to China and Russia by Splitting with Allies on Iran, Experts Say

Climate change: 90 F degrees recorded in Arctic Circle

Read more at: https://mashable.com/2018/07/31/arctic-heat-wave-climate-change/?europe=true

Social Media - Fake News: Facebook says it found new covert campaign to spread divisive political messages

On Tuesday morning, the political and tech worlds were startled to learn that Facebook had identified and stopped a new covert campaign to spread divisive political messages on its platform, the first such announcement since 2017.

But Facebook released only some of the pages and content publicly. What it did not reveal was the depth some of the pages went to stoke racial tension and incite division among Americans.

NBC News was able to retrieve some of the pages Facebook deleted via a web archive search, which allows people to see internet pages that have been deleted.

A review of some of the deleted pages from groups identified by Facebook as part of the “inauthentic coordinated behavior” found efforts to target people based on liberal politics as well as Hispanic and African heritage.

One deleted post called for protesters to occupy the headquarters of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.

Posted by a group called “Resisters,” an event that was initially titled “Stop Ripping Families Apart! DC,” was later retitled “Stop Ripping Families Apart! Take over ICE HQ” after Facebook users said they would attend. A total of 131 people later marked themselves as having attended the June 27 rally outside of ICE’s Washington offices.

Read more: Facebook says it found new covert campaign to spread divisive political messages

France US Relations: Quit the EU for better trade deal, Trump reportedly told Macron

Donald Trump suggested to Emmanuel Macron that he pull France out of the European Union in return for a bilateral trade deal, it has been claimed.

The offer, aimed at destroying the Europe alliance, was reported to have been made during a private meeting when Macron visited the White House at the end of April.

The Washington Post said the US president asked Macron: “Why don’t you leave the European Union?” In return, Trump suggested the US could offer France a substantial bilateral trade deal.

The article claimed that Trump promised to give France better trade terms than the EU as a whole gets from the US.

The columnist at the Washington Post, Josh Rogin, cited two unnamed European officials as the source of his report, adding that the proposition revealed “a basic lack of understanding of Macron’s views and those of the people who elected him”. It was “an instance of the president of the United States offering an incentive to dismantle an organsation of America’s allies, against stated US government policy”.

Note EU-Digest: How can the EU Commission swallow this, if true ? 

Read more: Quit the EU for better trade deal, Trump reportedly told Macron | US news | The Guardian