European Economy: The ECB goes Rogue - by Sylvester Eijffinger

The European Central Bank has done it again. At its recent meeting in Frankfurt, the ECB Governing Council decided to increase bond purchases further, from €60 billion ($67 billion) to €80 billion per month, with corporate bonds now also eligible for purchase. The deposit rate, too, was reduced once again, and now stands at -0.4%. This is far from a neutral policy – and it takes the ECB far beyond its mandate of preserving monetary stability.

The motivation behind the recent policy moves is clear: ECB President Mario Draghi is committed to curbing deflation, a serious threat to economic growth. After all, in a deflationary environment, it is more difficult to repay debt, so companies will tend to postpone investment. Recent Eurostat figures, which show that the annual consumer-price index fell by 0.2% last month, heighten concerns.

But while what is happening is technically deflation – that is, sustained price-level decreases that may be reflected in employment or other contracts – it is not structural deflation. Instead, it largely reflects low oil prices, which have fallen by more than 70% since June 2014. In fact, if we discard energy and food prices, the eurozone is in a situation of structural low inflation. That, together with the oil price, should actually benefit the economy, as it gives a boost to consumption and investment.

So why has the ECB’s massive quantitative easing (QE) program, which has put plenty of money into circulation, failed to stimulate demand for goods and services? One problem is that banks are reluctant to pass the negative deposit rate through to the savings rate, for fear of losing depositors. They are thus forced to increase further their margins on mortgages and loans to small and medium-size enterprises. As a result, contrary to the goal of QE, they are extending less credit to households and companies.

Meanwhile, banks, households, and small and medium-size enterprises are still excessively leveraged, and need time to pay down their debts. While this might seem to suggest that the ECB’s focus on boosting inflation is the right one, the reality is that a straightforward expansion of the bond-purchase program ignores the underlying structural issues afflicting the eurozone’s weaker economies. Worse, by enabling those economies to borrow cheaply, QE permits them to avoid implementing difficult structural reforms.

Draghi and the doves on the ECB Governing Council – namely, the presidents of southern European countries’ central banks – seem to think that they can get a car moving simply by giving it more gas, even if its clutch is broken. The hawks in the ECB Governing Council, such as Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot, see the folly in this approach, but they are in the minority.



The ECB goes Rogue - The New Times | Rwanda

European Economy: Why Europe is terrified of deflation - by Paul Ames

From Putin’s hordes massing over the eastern borders of Ukraine to the army of home-grown Islamic State fanatics threatening a murderous return from the Middle East, Europe has a lot be frightened of right now.

Yet there’s another nightmare haunting Europe’s economic policy makers: a monster called deflation that’s already clawing at the continent’s financial fundaments.

“We are meeting here at the time when Europe is facing a great threat,” Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Szczurek warned in a recent speech. “We are on the verge of deflation,” he told a Sept. 4 conference in Brussels. “As Europeans we should never forget that it was depression and deflation … that brought to power the totalitarian regime that devastated our continent through the world war and unspeakable atrocities 75 years ago.”

At first glance deflation doesn’t sound so bad.

“Anybody who doubts how bad it could get should look back to the last time the US caught a serious dose of deflation. They called that the Great Depression.”

Prices go down, what’s not to like?

Yet the cold economic reality means that when prices fall people stop spending, hoping things will get even cheaper. In response, businesses cut production and lay off workers. That means even less demand, and prices drop further.

By then, your economy’s in a vicious downward spiral.

Making things worse, those falling prices bring declining wages and worsening debt burdens.

Anybody who doubts how bad it could get should look back to the last time the United States caught a serious dose of deflation, from 1929-33. They called that the Great Depression.

Why Europe is terrified of deflation - Salon.com

EU Economy: Europe fears deflation as Ukraine stays centre-stage

The eurozone's growing fears of deflation will be stirred again on Friday when preliminary consumer price data for August will be issued with signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be looking at bolder steps to help the region's stagnant economy.

Analyst polled by Reuters forecast the annual inflation rate to slip to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent in July, falling even further below the ECB's target of below but close to two per cent and mired deep in what the bank calls the "danger zone." The ECB cut interest rates in June and promised banks cheap long-term loans starting in September and any new measures before those loans kick in had been considered unlikely.

However, in remarks that opened the door to possible policy action at the bank's next meeting in September, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the bank is prepared to respond with all its "available" tools should inflation drop further.

Speaking at a global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Draghi said he is confident that the steps already announced, helped by a weaker euro would boost demand in the ailing economic bloc. But in stronger language than he has used in the past, he stressed the central bank stands ready to do more. "The (ECB's) governing council will acknowledge these (economic) developments and within its mandate will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability over the medium term," he said.

The main weapon at the bank's disposal, printing money to buy bonds, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), is still opposed by Germany's Bundes bank which plays down the danger of deflation. In his remarks on Friday, Draghi did not mention the policy specifically, but a growing number of analysts believe it is only a matter of time before the ECB follows the path already trodden by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

"The ECB will ultimately move to QE unless the euro weakens appreciably," said Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho, adding that, "In the near term stagnation and near-zero inflation in the eurozone are almost a certainty. Developments in Ukraine will continue to be a major focus for markets, with the negative headlines of recent weeks having pushed German bond yields to new lows."

Read more: Europe fears deflation as Ukraine stays centre-stagEU Economy: Europe fears deflation as Ukraine stays centre-stag

EU-Economy: Quantitative easing: ECB getting closer to US Fed-style stimulus ( Lets hope not) - by David McHugh

The European Central Bank has deployed a raft of aggressive measures to boost Europe's economy, but stopped short of the one many economists insist would do the most to help: large-scale purchases of bonds.

That could change sooner rather than later, analysts say, if inflation remains low.

Purchases of bonds using newly created money — called quantitative easing — have been used with some success so far by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. They can reduce market interest rates, making it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow, helping growth.

So why not in Europe?

To begin with, the ECB faces technical and practical challenges that other major central banks don't have. It has 18 different government bond markets, raising the question of whose bonds to buy and how many.

Beyond that, creating new money has long faced resistance in Germany, the biggest economy in Europe where central bank stimulus measures are looked upon with suspicion and have a prominent place in public discussions.

But after Thursday's meeting, things could be shifting.

At a press conference on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi held the door open to such bond purchases, suggesting Germany has at least softened its outright resistance. If inflation falls further, analysts think the ECB could start quantitative easing.

"Are we finished?" he said after the decision. "The answer is no." The ECB is keen to bring up the inflation rate, which at 0.5 percent is so low it raises fears the eurozone will fall into outright deflation, a crippling downward price spiral.

Note EU-Digest:  quantitative easing is the kiss of death for an economy and even though it creates some relief at first it will eventually come and haunt you, as the US is experiencing, but not speaking about. 

Read more: FRANKFURT, Germany: ECB getting closer to Fed-style stimulus - Business Breaking News - MiamiHerald.co