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| Could Russia become a full member of the EU? |
A little over a year Cyrus Sanati wrote in an OpEd for Fortune
Magazine: "Britain’s exit from the European Union opens the door to a
possible
Russian entry—a “Rentry” or perhaps “Russ-in”—into the (now) 27-member
club. While it could take years, even decades, before the Russian
Federation could meet all the criteria under the so-called
Copenhagen Criteria to join the EU as a full member, it is far more likely to occur now with the U.K. out of the picture."
"Obviously the question now is: "why not? "
Tempting Russia with EU membership would do far more to elicit better
behavior from Moscow than the weak economic sanctions the EU currently
imposes on it. Russia’s entry would not only be a boon for trade in the
region, but it would also finally make Europe a true superpower with the
ability to take on China and the U.S. both economically and militarily.
At
first blush, it might crazy to think “Rentry” could happen. After all,
tensions between Russia and the EU are arguably at their highest level
since the end of the Cold War. Last week, amid Russia’s continued
aggression in the Ukraine, the EU extended its long-running banking
sanctions against Moscow for another year.
Retaliatory Russian sanctions against EU foodstuffs will remain in effect as well,
costing
the EU agri-food sector billions of euros in lost revenue. Meanwhile,
net foreign direct investment flows between Russia and Europe are now at
their lowest level in nearly two decades, going from $80 billion in
2013 to almost nil last year.
And if the economic tension wasn’t bad enough, the Baltic states and
Poland,
which are all EU (and NATO) members, have increased their defense
spending considerably following Russia’s invasion of the Crimea two
years ago. They are increasingly concerned that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s
long-standing leader, might try to reenact the opening scene of World
War II and invade their territories. This might be paranoid, but it’s
not totally off-base.
Still, despite the increased tensions and
simultaneous crash in energy prices, Russia remains the EU’s
fourth-largest trading partner and the EU continues to be Russia’s
biggest trading partner; total trade between the two was nearly €209
billion in 2015,
according to figures from the European Commission.
If energy prices rebound, which will happen sooner or later, those
trade figures will explode. Back in 2012, before energy prices crashed
and before sanctions were imposed, annual trade between the two
equaled
€338 billion, making Russia the EU’s third largest trading partner
behind the U.S. and China.
If there was truly free trade and open
borders between Russia and Europe, that number could easily double or
triple in just a few years.
It will be hard for the sides to
continue dismissing each other given their close geographical proximity
and historical ties. Indeed, half of the European Union was either
directly or indirectly ruled from Moscow at some point in the last
century. As such, much of the infrastructure needed for trade—such as
pipelines, roads, and railroads—are already connected. Today, Russia
supplies nearly all he natural gas for many of the eastern members of
the EU, as well as the bulk of Germany’s needs. As Germany continues to
retire its nuclear and coal power plants, this link will only grow more
important.
"The question is therefore not if, but when will both the EU and
Russia start looking at their relationship in a more serious way,
despite all the negative rhetoric coming from Washington about Russia."
EU-Digest
