At the cusp of the
new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks
are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation
that a long
Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between
Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand.
China’s rise is fueling a
wide range of territorial disputes in Asia and challenging America’s
strategic leadership in the region. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
apparently become a semi-frozen conflict, but one that could reignite
at any time.
There is also the
chance of another epidemic, as outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, and other
infectious diseases have shown in recent years. Cyber-warfare is a
looming threat as well, and non-state actors and groups are creating
conflict and chaos from the Middle East to North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Last, but certainly not least, climate change is already causing
significant damage, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent
and lethal.
Yet it is Europe that
may turn out to be the ground zero of geopolitics in 2016. For
starters, a Greek exit from the eurozone may have been only postponed,
not prevented, as pension and other structural reforms put the country
on a collision course with its European creditors. “Grexit,” in turn,
could be the beginning of the end of the monetary union, as investors
would wonder which member – possibly even a core country (for example,
Finland) – will be the next to leave.
If Grexit does occur,
the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU may become more likely. Compared
to a year ago, the probability of “Brexit” has increased, for several
reasons. The recent terrorist attacks in Europe have made the UK even
more isolationist, as has the migration crisis. Under Jeremy Corbyn’s
leadership, Labour is more Euroskeptic. And Prime Minister David Cameron
has painted himself into a corner by demanding EU reforms that even the
Germans – who are sympathetic to the UK – cannot accept. To many in
Britain, the EU looks like a sinking ship.
If Brexit were to
occur, other dominos would fall. Scotland might decide to leave the UK,
leading to the breakup of Britain. This could inspire other separatist
movements – perhaps starting in Catalonia – to push even more forcefully
for independence. And the EU’s Nordic members may decide that with the
UK gone, they, too, would be better off leaving.
As for terrorism, the
sheer number of homegrown jihadists means that the question for Europe
is not whether another attack will occur, but when and where. And
repeated attacks could sharply reduce business and consumer confidence
and stall Europe’s fragile economic recovery.
Those who argue that
the migration crisis also poses an existential threat to Europe are
right. But the issue is not the million newcomers entering Europe in
2015. It is the 20 million more who are displaced, desperate, and
seeking to escape violence, civil war, state failure, desertification,
and economic collapse in large parts of the Middle East and Africa. If
Europe is unable to find a coordinated solution to this problem and
enforce a common external border, the Schengen Agreement will collapse
and internal borders between the EU member states will reappear.
Note EU-Digest: Europeans must keep history in mind when looking at the future - united we stand - divided we fail - There is no alternative.
