With only five months to go until the next parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, scheduled for March 2017, the country’s political parties are gearing up for the campaign. Debates over the annual budget in September gave a glimpse into the strategies of the main characters and how the main campaign themes of healthcare, migration and the economy might play out. The precise level of support each party will achieve is hard to predict due to the volatility of Dutch elections, but a fragmented parliament and a complicated coalition formation process are likely.
The elections for the Tweede Kamer, which is the most important chamber of parliament, will take place on 15 March if the present coalition government manages to serve its full term – which would be the first time this has occurred since 2002. Parties’ names and candidate lists should be registered with the Electoral Council in the coming months. The election will use a proportional representation system across a single nationwide constituency, ensuring the share of the 150 seats each party will receive is in line with the number of votes they obtain.
At present, the Tweede Kamer harbours 15 parliamentary groups, including five splinter groups. The current government relies on the support of the right-wing VVD of Prime Minister Mark Rutte (40 seats) and the centre-left PvdA (36 seats). The latter is internationally known for its Minister of Finance, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chair of the Eurogroup (the ministers of finance of the Eurozone countries).
The recent budget debate underlined Rutte’s status as an able survivor in Dutch politics. Since becoming prime minister after elections in 2010 and 2012, he has shown sufficient flexibility to gain majority support for a series of major reforms to sustain the welfare state in the fragmented first and second chambers of parliament. Rutte now sits at the centre of the VVD’s campaign as the party looks toward 2017.
The leaders of the opposition parties will mostly be the same as in the last election in 2012, from the Animal Rights Party to the pensioners’ party, 50Plus. Only the small GroenLinks and ChristenUnie parties have changed leaders among the main players, although the PvdA still has to decide on a new leader (with its present parliamentary leader Diederik Samson one of the candidates). A new party, Denk, which split-off from the PvdA, will campaign for the sake of migrants and their descendants. On the right, two new parties are to be led by the leading faces of the referendum campaign against the EU-Ukraine Treaty which took place in April.
At present, the VVD’s main opponent is the anti-Islam and anti-EU Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, which has topped some recent polls. The VVD is in favour of fiscal austerity and a (European) free market, while it also advocates tough anti-crime and anti-terrorism policies, and is strict on migration and integration. The budget debate showed how the VVD has sought to distinguish itself from Wilders and the PVV. The party has emphasised its role in steering the Netherlands through economically difficult times and has also underlined that everyone should accept Dutch norms and values: that is, that Muslims and migrants should accept, but can also enjoy the country’s constitutional freedoms.
Read more: EUROPP – The 2017 Dutch parliamentary elections: A fragmented picture as Rutte and Wilders draw their battle lines