Turkey - let's get real - a far bigger and more serious problem than Crimea - by RM

 








While the world  focuses on Crimea and the comical  "tick-tac-toe" between President's Obama and Putin,  there is another geo-political  problem, which in terms of scope and strategic importance to the West, is far more critical than Crimea.

That problem is called Turkey, on the opposite side of Crimea, with the Black Sea in between .

Here we are now facing a corrupt and paranoid PM and his government, who have gone power crazy and totally out of control, taking Turkey down the road of potentially violent public disturbances and economic meltdown.

Even though, in all fairness Erdogan's accession on to Turkey's political scene more than 10 years ago "raised many eyebrows right from the start, most Turks gave him the benefit of the doubt and overlooked Erdogan's hard-line reputation, and the religious undertone of his AKParty given the apparent prosperity the country was experiencing under his leadership. 

Then came a change, the "Genie got out of the bottle", and the AKparty and Erdogan became more and more dictatorial, eliminating all forces of opposition, including those in the powerful Turkish military, the press and many other organizations.

The situation got even worse after Erdogan  got into a "spat" with his Guru and Mentor, Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, who lives in Pennsylvania, USA, as an exile and from there also  controls a global network of schools and organizations under the banner  "Moderate and Peaceful Islam.".   

Obviously back in Pennsylvania Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, was not very happy his "pupil"  Erdogan had stopped listening to him and rumors and evidence began circulating about the billions Erdogan and his croonies in government had swindled.

Erdogan pointed his finger at his former buddy Muhammed Fethullah Gülen claiiming that it was him who had created a  parallel state within the state that wanted to topple his government. 

Unfortunately for Erdogan despite his illegitimate reshuffling of thousands of police officers and hundreds of judges and prosecutors, he nor his government were able to track down a single piece of evidence of what he called a "parallel state".

In light of all these signs of corruption, it has also become evident to many people in Turkey that the whole parallel state argument by Erdogan  was an imagined enemy that Erdogan, like Don Quixote, used in his fight against the "windmills".

But Erdogan still has quite a few cards to play. As a result of the Turkish electoral and voting system Erdogan and his party still control the Turkish parliament.  Consequently Erdogan's AKParty is approving new laws on a daily basis to consolidate and strengthen his grip on every level of the Turkish  society. 

Mr Erdogan's other major fobia is that he is totally intolerant of criticism from whatever source it comes and has not hesitated to use his powers to have anyone he considers "a threat to the Republic" thrown into jail.

Turkey now has more journalists in prison than just about any other country in the world.

Turkey ranked 154th out of 180 countries surveyed in the World Press Freedom Index released by the Reporters Without Borders Association on Feb. 12, even behind China and  war-torn nations such as Afghanistan and Iraq.  The report noted further that “the Gezi Park revolt highlighted the repressive methods used by the security forces, the increase in self-censorship and the dangers of the prime minister’s populist discourse,”

More recently, audio recordings that appear to be of Erdogan have shown how deeply he is involved in government corruption, were posted on Twitter by an anonymous account holder, just weeks before the March 30 local elections in the country.

 Even though Erdogan denied that these recordings were legitimate he apparently decided it was better to be 'safe than sorry' and just get rid of Twitter altogether.

On Thursday, March 20 Erdogan made good on his promise to wipe out Twitter in his country, and Turkish tweeters are now reporting that they are unable to access the service.

Twitter published a message on its service that same day advising users in Turkey that it was still possible to send Tweets on twitter using mobile phone text messaging. 

Erdogan has previously also called social media a "menace to society" and threatened to ban YouTube and Facebook.  Last year, at least 25 people were arrested for tweeting messages of protests against Erdogan and his government. It now also appears that Facebook is being shut down in Turkey.

Indeed, the world, and particularly the EU should wake up and "smell the roses"  about the situation in Turkey, 

Like it or not, Turkey is a powerful economic ally of the West, a member of NATO and a candidate member of the EU with a population of 81.7 million. 

In contrast Crimea and its  2.3 million people, which since 700 BC  has been changing hands many times including being part of the Cimmerians, Bulgars, Greeks, Scythians, Romans, Goths, Huns, Khazars, Kievan Rus, the Byzantine Empire, Venice, Genoa, Kipchaks, the Golden Horde, the Ottaman Empire, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, Germany, Ukraine and now Russia again. 

Crimea or Turkey - Come on EU Commission and EU-Parliament - You don't need to be Einstein to figure that one out ?

As to Crimea, let's be frank - Crimeans voted fair and square they don't want to be part of Ukraine anymore. Maybe the simple solution would be for President Obama to shake hands with President Putin, wish Crimea well, and tell  President Putin not to start messing with Ukraine in the future,  or else. 

Let's get real - its time to focus on Turkey. .

EU-Digest

Ukraine: Obama and Putin Playing Chess With New Cold War At Stake - by RM

It's amazing to hear US Senator McCaine calling for force to solve the Ukraine crises while President Obama and President Putin are playing a complicated game of chess in trying  to solve the problem without militarily involvement.

How can President Obama and his European allies counter Putin's opening gambit of this chess game? And how can the United States and the EU roll back what Putin has pulled off so far?

The US Obama Administration and the EU can-not and must-not confront Russia militarily -- it would be suicide in today's nuclear age.

At this point it looks like actions from the West against Russia, over the long term, will come in a form where it will hurt Russia and President Putin's popularity at home the most - economics.

But not everyone agrees that this scenario is the best course of action - certainly not the Republicans in the US, or for that matter, the conservative right-wingers in Britain.

US Republican Sen. John McCain - presently one of the the least popular senators in the US of those surveyed by the Public Policy Polling, with low marks from members of his own party, independents and Democrats, is among the Republican's loudest critics of the Obama Administration foreign policy.

He directly blamed President Obama's "incompetent" foreign policy for inviting the crisis in Ukraine and  recently told a pro-Israel group that the president has repeatedly failed to demonstrate American strength in the face of adversaries.

McCain was not the only Republican to criticize the Administration's handling of the crisis.Many other GOP critics just about tripped over each others feet to attack Obama.

On Sunday March 2, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., even went as far as to tell CNN in an interview, "we have a weak and indecisive president whom invites aggression.".

As an independent congressman remarked afterwards, "this kind of rhetoric by the Republicans can basically be qualified as that of five year old's playing with marbles and one suddenly throwing a tantrum."

To put some perspective as to the causes of what is happening in Ukraine, and why Obama and Putin are now having to negotiate and play a game of chess,  requires us to turn back the clock to when the Soviet Union (USSR) formally ceased to exist on 26 December 1991. 

From that date onward,  the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran.

At the same time, the US also increased its military capability in Europe after it brought an additional 12 countries from central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the already existing NATO alliance. This in fact has now brought US military power and might directly on Russia’s borders.

Apart from facing the issue of encirclement President Putin probably also had a few other sleepless nights after he compared US military spending, which is 40% of the worlds total military spending,  to that of his own country, which is only 5.5% of the total global military spending.

Let's face it and be realistic, Russia is now basically between "a rock and a hard place" and  that is not a good place for them or anyone else to be in.

Obviously there are no angels on either side -  but for this issue is to be resolved everyone has to take a step back, look at the bigger picture, calm down and reach a negotiated diplomatic solution.

EU-Digest

Russia: President Vladimir Putin deserves kudos for 2014 Sochi Olympics - a job well done

President Vladimir Putin

Even though most of us in the Western Press had initially used every possible occasion to be critical about a variety of issues surrounding  the Sochi Olympics project, the Olympics not only got off to a brilliant start, but also throughout the games showed to be a smooth and perfectly managed operation.

This was recognized by just about everyone afterwards.

Olympic Committee officials went to great lengths to praise these much-maligned Games in their closing news conference.

"They've done a phenomenal job," said USOC chairman Larry Probst, mentioning everything from smooth transportation to Vladimir Putin's presence throughout the previous 15 days. "(Putin) has really owned these Games," he said.

Like it or not, President Vladimir Putin deserves to receive Kudos, not only for these Olympic games, but also for doing everything in his power to turn Sochi into a household word and exposing a cultural, warm and friendly face of  Russia to the rest of world.

Indeed, Mr. Putin might not be everyone's friend - which great leader ever is- but he will certainly be viewed by historians later as the Russian leader who picked up Russia by the bootstraps, after it was down and nearly out when the Soviet Union fell apart, and turning it into the modern society it is today.   

According to Russian public opinion polls, Mr Putin not only remains popular - his popularity is even rising.  In the latest poll, taken in December 2013, by the independent research organization, the Levada Centre, 68 per cent of respondents said that if new presidential elections were held this they would vote for Putin. This was up by 10 per cent from December 2012.

Why is Mr. Putin so popular at home? The simple answer is that the Russian population of 144 million is much better off today than it has ever been. Real incomes have risen substantially over the past decade, and the share of the population living below the poverty line has fallen.

The range of available consumer goods is worlds apart from when the Soviet Union fell apart little more than two decades ago.  Many of the middle class Russian families are now taking vacations outside their country and in the summer you will now find Russians vacationers just about everywhere in the world with a large contingent  in Turkey and Thailand..

During his two terms as president, Putin signed into law a series of liberal economic reforms, such as the flat income tax of 13 percent, a reduced profits tax, a new Land Code and a new edition (2006) of the Civil Code. Within this period, poverty in Russia was cut by more than half and real GDP has grown rapidly.

Some of the main features of Putin's regime so far have been: development of a corporatist system by pursuing close ties with business organizations, social stability and co-optation of opposition parties.

In 2005, Putin launched National Priority Projects in the fields of health care, education, housing and agriculture. In his May 2006 annual speech, Putin proposed increasing maternity benefits and prenatal care for women. Putin was strident about the need to reform the judiciary considering the present federal judiciary "Sovietesque", wherein many of the judges hand down the same verdicts as they would under the old Soviet judiciary structure, and preferring instead a judiciary that interpreted and implemented the code to the current situation.

In 2005, responsibility for federal prisons was transferred from the Ministry of Internal Affairs to the Ministry of Justice.

The most high-profile change within the national priority project frameworks was probably the 2006 across-the-board increase in wages in healthcare and education, as well as the decision to modernize equipment in both sectors in 2006 and 2007.

So far during Putin's government, poverty was cut more than half and real GDP has grown rapidly.

In a rare sign of emotion and patriotism, he once said in an interview with Time magazine: "Russia is an ancient country with historical, profound traditions and a very powerful moral foundation. And this foundation is a love for the Motherland and patriotism. Patriotism in the best sense of that word. Incidentally, I think that to a certain extent, to a significant extent, this is also attributable to the American people."

Kudos Mr. Putin, Sochi was a job well done.

EU-Digest

Russia: Since his ‘formal’ return to power in May 2012 – was he ever really away?

President Vladimir Putin has been eager to restore Russia’s superpower status to distract from domestic problems. Russian leaders have traditionally demonstrated Moscow’s clout first in the post-Soviet space, particularly in Eastern Europe.

The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) and the Warsaw Pact have today been replaced by the Eurasian Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The question is how should the EU respond to this new geopolitical competition with Moscow?

Faced with domestic difficulties, autocratic governments often strive for foreign successes to divert attention and shore up public support. This was the case when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands in the early 1980s and Putin’s actions today are not much different. Russia is confronted with huge problems in education, housing and health services, not to mention the anarchy and bloodshed in the Northern Caucasus.

Well-educated young people are taking to the streets demanding a share of the Kremlin’s welfare.

Putin hasn’t addressed these domestic challenges head on, focusing instead on foreign policy. At first, Russia became increasingly isolated because of its stance on Syria and Iran, but thanks to clever Russian diplomacy and a hesitant U.S., Moscow achieved remarkable successes in 2013 like the chemical weapons deal on Syria and the interim nuclear agreement on Iran. And in Eastern Europe, Ukraine ‘chose’ to deepen co-operation with Russia instead of forging closer ties with the EU.

Eastern Europe is divided into two spheres of influence. The EU uses its Eastern Partnership (EaP) to promote co-operation with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine. It is not a waiting room for EU membership, but a project to enhance these countries’ stability and prosperity and to ensure safe borders for the EU.

On the other side, Russia has the Eurasian Union-to-be (EaU) and the CSTO. For now, the EaU is nothing but a customs union that includes Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, but the Kremlin intends to bring in Ukraine and some other former Soviet republics to form a competitor to the EU. The CSTO is Russia’s military instrument in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and includes a military assistance clause to prevent an attack on any of its member states. The basis of Putin’s foreign and security policy objectives – as laid down in Russian security documents – is that Russia has privileged interests in the former Soviet republics and therefore the right to intervene.

The issues at stake in Eastern Europe are a complicated web of political, military, economic and energy issues. From the start, the Kremlin denounced the EaP as an unacceptable project, seeing it as the EU’s way of drawing Eastern Europe away from Russia and into the Western orbit. As a result, pro-EU governments in Moldova and Georgia suffered boycotts – as Ukraine, too, felt this last summer, before President Viktor Yanukovich realigned from Brussels to Moscow. In the same vein, Georgia’s intention to join NATO in 2008 was a step too far for Moscow and the Russian invasion of Georgia put an end to this plan, at least for many years to come.

On the economic front, energy rules. Despite the EU’s claims to have a common energy policy, Moscow successfully divides and rules the EU member states. The European Commission has launched a legal case against Russia’s energy giant Gazprom for monopolistic action in the new Eastern EU states, which are highly dependent on Russian gas. What’s more, Moscow is doing everything it can to thwart the EU’s project to construct pipelines directly to Azerbaijan and possibly Central Asia in order to wean itself from dependence on Russian gas. Russia’s own alternative pipelines to circumvent the current one through Ukraine – Nord Stream to Germany and South Stream around the Black Sea – are yet another way to try to undermine the EU’s common energy policy.

So how can the EU win the geopolitical game with Moscow? The answer to this is quite simple and is to be found in European unity and vigour. For too long Brussels has failed to do so and Moscow has exploited this with its ‘divide and rule’ policy in Europe. The EU should be much more aware of Russia’s foreign policy objectives and anticipate its actions. If the EU is more cognizant of Russia opposition to the EaP, then it could take measures to soften Moscow’s boycotts of EaP member states.

The EU claims to stand for democracy and human rights and Brussels should therefore go beyond merely making statements and actively support human rights groups and the political opposition in Russia as well as in Ukraine. And instead of bi-lateral energy deals with Moscow, all 28 EU member states together should sign one gas contract with Russia and collectively support gas pipelines to bypass the Russian ones.

With a genuinely cohesive energy policy, the EU will strengthen its political manoeuvrability vis-à-vis the Kremlin, and thus bolster its endeavours in the field of human rights and democracy. Such policies will show former Soviet republics that the EU has much more to offer them than Moscow’s alternative Eurasian Union.

Note EU-Digest:  Marcel de Haas is a Senior Researcher at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael

EU-Digest

Russia Winter Olympics: Gay people should feel comfortable at the Sochi Olympics says President Putin

Gay people should feel comfortable at the Sochi Olympics but “leave children in peace,” Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said Friday.

In June, Putin signed into law a bill forbidding the promotion of homosexuality to minors, sparking months of controversy ahead of the February 7-23 event in Sochi.

The law’s proponents argue that it is aimed at protecting children from harmful influences, but critics allege the move restricts freedom of speech and is part of a broader crackdown on Russia’s gay community.

Gay sex is not a crime in Russia, so gay people can “feel calm, at ease, but leave children in peace, please,” Putin said at a meeting with Olympic volunteers in the mountain village of Krasnaya Polyana, the base outside Sochi for Olympic snow sports.

The remarks come a day after Putin repeated his vow that there would be “no discrimination” at the Games. He has previously said that Russia will “do everything” to ensure a warm welcome for Sochi guests “regardless … of sexual orientation.”

Russia's Interior Ministry, which controls the police, has vowed to enforce the controversial anti-gay law at the Olympics. There will also be tight restrictions on protests, which are confined to a park in a small town that lies more than 12 kilometers from any Olympic venues.

U.S. President Barack Obama will not attend the Games, and his nomination of two gay former athletes to his country’s delegation has been widely interpreted as a comment on the Russian law.

Note EU-Digest: Let's not make a mountain out of a molehill . Gay sex is not a crime in Russia, but promoting sex  - whatever kind of sex - involving minors is not acceptable in any country.  

EU-Digest