Turkey - Economic Meltdown ?: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames lira crash on Donald Trump 'plot - by Chris Baynes

Turkey’s president has blamed the crash of the lira on the United States, claiming a “political, underhand plot” had sent the value of his country’s currency tumbling to record lows.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Donald Trump of waging “economic war against the entire world”, after the American leader escalated a diplomatic feud by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium.

“The aim of the operation is to make Turkey surrender in all areas, from finance to politics,” the Turkish president told supporters in the Black Sea city of Trabzon.

The lira has lost more than 40 per cent of its value against dollar this year, amid worsening ties between Turkey and the US and concerns over Mr Erdogan’s influence over the economy.

The fall turned to meltdown on Friday, when the lira dropped 14 per cent, rattling global markets.

Speaking in Trabzon, Mr Erdogan dismissed suggestions that Turkey was facing a financial crisis like those seen in Asia two decades ago.

"What is the reason for all this storm in a tea cup? There is no economic reason,” he said. ”This is called carrying out an operation against Turkey.”

“We will give our answer, by shifting to new markets, new partnerships and new alliances, to the one who waged an economic war against the entire world and also included our country.

“Some close the doors and some others open new ones.”

Mr Trump announced additional sanctions on Turkish metals last week as relations between the two nations continued to sour over Ankara's detention of a US pastor.

"Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time," tweeted the US president, two days after talks between American and Turkish officials about pastor Andrew Brunson, 50, ended without any obvious progress.

Note EU-Digest: this whole confrontation between the US and Turkey has mainly to do with the mid-term US election and boosting the Evangelical support for the Republicans. Specially if Trump is able to bring Pastor Andrew Brunson back to the US, from Turkey, where he is under house arrest for supposedly collaborating with what the Erdogan government called "terrorists".

Read more: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames lira crash on Donald Trump 'plot' | The Independent

Turkey - Presidential Elections: Can Erdogan's economic record help him keep seat amid challenges? - by Umut Uras

Sitting by his small telephone sale and repair shop in the buzzing Istanbul district of Besiktas, Hasan Kus is pessimistic about the future of Turkey's economy.

A little over a week before the country's key elections, the 44-year-old believes the financial situation will worsen regardless the outcome of the June 24 polls. "People are merely trying to pick the better scenario, compared to the other ones," says Kus, before trying to sell a phone charger to a customer.

The economy is going to be a decisive factor in the upcoming vote that will transition Turkey from a parliamentary system to an executive one, in line with constitutional changes approved in a referendum last year.

The presidential and parliamentary polls will be held under a state of emergency, in place since July 2016 following a failed deadly coup blamed by the government on the movement of Fethullah Gulen, a US-based self-exiled religious leader.

On the economic front, the polls come against a conflicting backdrop of skyrocketing growth rate - up 7.4 percent last year - and a depreciating currency.

The Turkish lira dropped more than 20 percent against the US dollar this year, prompting the Central Bank to raise interest rates multiple times to shore up one of the world's worst-performing currencies. Meanwhile, both inflation and current account deficit are on the rise.

Under these circumstances, the Turkish electorate appears divided about who is best equipped to deal with the ongoing economic uncertainties.

Voters who blame the uncertainty on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) believe change is needed after 15 years to correct the policies that spawned the current problems.

Note EU-Digest: It is time for a change in Turkey after 15 years of Erdogan. President Erdogan has brought Turkey close to total economic ruin, and based on latest polls can only win the upcoming Presidential elections if he succeeds, once again, to have his associates fiddle with the ballot boxes and votes to change the outcome....? 

Read more: Can Erdogan's economic record help him keep seat amid challenges? | Turkey News | Al Jazeera

Suriname: Thousands protest against electricity, water price hike in Suriname

Suriname in turmoil: Desi Bouterse -Dictator turned President

For the second time in three weeks, thousands took to the streets of Paramaribo protesting against austerity measures from the Desi Bouterse led administration on Thursday.
Some protestors called for Bouterse to “go home” while others denounced price hikes for electricity and water.

The protest was organised by several worker’s unions and private sector organizations who have stated that harsher times are coming with another hike in the price of electricity coming in September this year and January 2017.

In a petition presented to speaker of the house, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, the protestors claim that inflation has risen to 46 per cent, while the national currency is losing its value everyday due to an “incompetent monetary policy by the government”.

“Numerous public servants, pensioners, disabled persons and others who have become victims of the ongoing financial and economic crisis are serious financial problems and should be immediately compensated for the inflation”, protesters said in the petition.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a Stand-by Agreement of US$ 478 million to boost the government’s economic restructuring program amid a drop in commodity prices.

The IMF also announced that it will immediately disburse US$81 million as part of a two-year agreement.

However, Members of Parliament from the opposition voiced their anger in parliament on Tuesday, accusing the government of by-passing the legislative in its engagement with IMF to strike the loan agreement.

The restructuring program aims to strengthen Suriname’s public finances following a drop in prices for its principal commodities namely gold and oil.

According to the IMF the sustained drop in the prices of gold and oil has caused substantial external and fiscal deficits, and international reserves have declined significantly.

These negative external developments, combined with the closure of Suriname’s alumina refinery in late 2015, have pushed the economy into a recession. “Implementing the structural reform agenda is essential to ensure a prosperous future for Suriname,” the IMF said in a statement.



Read more: Thousands protest against electricity, water price hike in Suriname - News - JamaicaObserver.com

Turkey - let's get real - a far bigger and more serious problem than Crimea - by RM

 








While the world  focuses on Crimea and the comical  "tick-tac-toe" between President's Obama and Putin,  there is another geo-political  problem, which in terms of scope and strategic importance to the West, is far more critical than Crimea.

That problem is called Turkey, on the opposite side of Crimea, with the Black Sea in between .

Here we are now facing a corrupt and paranoid PM and his government, who have gone power crazy and totally out of control, taking Turkey down the road of potentially violent public disturbances and economic meltdown.

Even though, in all fairness Erdogan's accession on to Turkey's political scene more than 10 years ago "raised many eyebrows right from the start, most Turks gave him the benefit of the doubt and overlooked Erdogan's hard-line reputation, and the religious undertone of his AKParty given the apparent prosperity the country was experiencing under his leadership. 

Then came a change, the "Genie got out of the bottle", and the AKparty and Erdogan became more and more dictatorial, eliminating all forces of opposition, including those in the powerful Turkish military, the press and many other organizations.

The situation got even worse after Erdogan  got into a "spat" with his Guru and Mentor, Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, who lives in Pennsylvania, USA, as an exile and from there also  controls a global network of schools and organizations under the banner  "Moderate and Peaceful Islam.".   

Obviously back in Pennsylvania Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, was not very happy his "pupil"  Erdogan had stopped listening to him and rumors and evidence began circulating about the billions Erdogan and his croonies in government had swindled.

Erdogan pointed his finger at his former buddy Muhammed Fethullah Gülen claiiming that it was him who had created a  parallel state within the state that wanted to topple his government. 

Unfortunately for Erdogan despite his illegitimate reshuffling of thousands of police officers and hundreds of judges and prosecutors, he nor his government were able to track down a single piece of evidence of what he called a "parallel state".

In light of all these signs of corruption, it has also become evident to many people in Turkey that the whole parallel state argument by Erdogan  was an imagined enemy that Erdogan, like Don Quixote, used in his fight against the "windmills".

But Erdogan still has quite a few cards to play. As a result of the Turkish electoral and voting system Erdogan and his party still control the Turkish parliament.  Consequently Erdogan's AKParty is approving new laws on a daily basis to consolidate and strengthen his grip on every level of the Turkish  society. 

Mr Erdogan's other major fobia is that he is totally intolerant of criticism from whatever source it comes and has not hesitated to use his powers to have anyone he considers "a threat to the Republic" thrown into jail.

Turkey now has more journalists in prison than just about any other country in the world.

Turkey ranked 154th out of 180 countries surveyed in the World Press Freedom Index released by the Reporters Without Borders Association on Feb. 12, even behind China and  war-torn nations such as Afghanistan and Iraq.  The report noted further that “the Gezi Park revolt highlighted the repressive methods used by the security forces, the increase in self-censorship and the dangers of the prime minister’s populist discourse,”

More recently, audio recordings that appear to be of Erdogan have shown how deeply he is involved in government corruption, were posted on Twitter by an anonymous account holder, just weeks before the March 30 local elections in the country.

 Even though Erdogan denied that these recordings were legitimate he apparently decided it was better to be 'safe than sorry' and just get rid of Twitter altogether.

On Thursday, March 20 Erdogan made good on his promise to wipe out Twitter in his country, and Turkish tweeters are now reporting that they are unable to access the service.

Twitter published a message on its service that same day advising users in Turkey that it was still possible to send Tweets on twitter using mobile phone text messaging. 

Erdogan has previously also called social media a "menace to society" and threatened to ban YouTube and Facebook.  Last year, at least 25 people were arrested for tweeting messages of protests against Erdogan and his government. It now also appears that Facebook is being shut down in Turkey.

Indeed, the world, and particularly the EU should wake up and "smell the roses"  about the situation in Turkey, 

Like it or not, Turkey is a powerful economic ally of the West, a member of NATO and a candidate member of the EU with a population of 81.7 million. 

In contrast Crimea and its  2.3 million people, which since 700 BC  has been changing hands many times including being part of the Cimmerians, Bulgars, Greeks, Scythians, Romans, Goths, Huns, Khazars, Kievan Rus, the Byzantine Empire, Venice, Genoa, Kipchaks, the Golden Horde, the Ottaman Empire, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, Germany, Ukraine and now Russia again. 

Crimea or Turkey - Come on EU Commission and EU-Parliament - You don't need to be Einstein to figure that one out ?

As to Crimea, let's be frank - Crimeans voted fair and square they don't want to be part of Ukraine anymore. Maybe the simple solution would be for President Obama to shake hands with President Putin, wish Crimea well, and tell  President Putin not to start messing with Ukraine in the future,  or else. 

Let's get real - its time to focus on Turkey. .

EU-Digest

Global Economy: New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash - by Paul B. Farrell

Are we reaching the end of the road?

Global risks are accelerating. This is our fourth major poll update of industry leaders: A critical review of their warnings from early last year when we first predicted a 87% risk of a crash: Bernanke’s Fed saw an “unsustainable bubble” ... Gross: “credit supernova” ... Gundlach: “kaboom ahead” ... Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” ... Shilling: “shocker” ... Roubini: “Prepare for perfect storm” ... Shiller: “Irrational exuberance is back” ... Schiff: “Doubling down” on “doomsday” prediction ... InvestmentNews’ warning 90,000 advisers: “tick, tick ... boom!”

A few weeks later the crash risk was up to 98%. Then a dramatic preholiday uptick in investor sentiment. America’s collective unconscious tired of negativity after a Halloween headline: “Economic guillotine dead ahead.” A week later, 2014 became the “Year of the Boom.” Bank of America’s chief strategist screamed: “Bet on the bulls now.” The Great Gatsby spirit was celebrating the holidays“ 

Even old grumpy Dr. Doom, celeb economist Nouriel Roubini, began humming a happy tune all over television: “A global recovery is going to occur, get into equities.” 

What really happened? Fed politics. Short-term, Larry Summers withdrew as a candidate for the Fed chairman’s job. Dark cloud lifted as Janet Yellen become the pick. Wall Street cheered, Bernanke’s easy-money printing presses would not screw up their year-end bonuses. Plus Main Street was mentally exhausted, tired of the bad news, relentless political drama. We needed a holiday break. 

By Thanksgiving, “irrational exuberance” was accelerating in full holiday tilt: Headline: “Shiller’s hot P/Es will power a roaring bull till 2017,” and 2014 got branded the “Katy Perry market!” A week later, a Thanksgiving headline added: “10 reasons to be a bull in 2014.” 

But long term? What’s really ahead for America in 2014? Warning, something bigger is hiding in the deep shadows of our collective brain. At a recent lunch with an old friend, one of the world’s more successful commodities traders, he confirmed that “something” was dead ahead. But not just another brief statistical shift in sentiment. Not a medium-term volatility shift. America, the world, are in a historic transition, a paradigm shift, a mysterious upheaval that few will grasp till it moves further along.

Read more: New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch