NATO: European Security in Crisis: What to Expect if the United States Withdraws from NATO - by Liana Fix and Bastian Giegerich

t is February 2021. A few months after his re-election as president of the United States, Donald Trump declares that NATO has become obsolete and the United States withdraws from the alliance. All U.S. forces — military personnel and equipment — including nuclear and missile defense assets will be withdrawn from Europe as soon as possible.

This nightmare scenario has been on the mind of many security policy officials, and experts, ever since the New York Times reported in January 2019 that Trump discussed several times over the course of 2018 wanting to withdraw from the alliance. Congress has acted and passed the NATO Support Act, which prohibits the use of funds to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Yet the possibility of such a move cannot entirely be excluded.

A policy game prepared by Körber-Stiftung and the International Institute for Strategic Studies sought to answer these questions this summer in Berlin. Five country teams with experts from France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the United States addressed a fictional scenario that involved a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, followed by crises in a NATO member state in the western Balkans and across Eastern Europe. How would Europeans react to such a scenario? What are the red lines, interests, and priorities of the respective actors? How might Europeans organize their defense if the United States withdraws from NATO, and what role could the United States play in European security after the withdrawal?

European Security in Crisis: What to Expect if the United States Withdraws from NATO - War on the Rocks

Turkish-Dutch foreign relations break down; Ambassador recalled - by Janene Pieters

Talks on improving the relationship between the Netherlands and Turkey have failed, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Monday.

The Netherlands officially withdrew its ambassador in Ankara.

Relations between the Netherlands and Turkey have been tense since the Netherlands refused Turkish ministers access to the country to campaign for a referendum that gave Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan more power.

Turkey responded by comparing the Dutch to Nazis, calling them fascists, imposing a number of sanctions and accusing the Netherlands of mass murder in Srebrenica. The Netherlands refused to congratulate Erdogan when he won the referendum. 

Over the past months the two countries have been in talks on repairing the relationship. In December Erdogan called Prime Minister Mark Rutte an 'old friend' and said that he wanted to restore the relationship with the Netherlands.

And in mid-January Rutte said he no longer demanded that Erdogan publicly apologize for calling the Dutch Nazis and fascists, according to RTL Nieuws.

But these talks have been unsuccessful, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Monday. "For the time being these talks do not offer any view on the normalization of bilateral relations", the Ministry said in a statement. Foreign Affairs Minister Halbe Zijlstra added: "The recent talks provided an opportunity for Turkey and the Netherland to come closer together again, but we did not agree on how normalization should take place."

The government therefore decided to officially withdraw the Dutch ambassador to Ankara. The ambassador hasn't had access to Turkey since March 2017. "As long as the Netherlands does not have an ambassador in Turkey, the Netherlands will also not grant permission for the appointment of a new Turkish ambassador in the Netherlands. This message was conveyed to the Turkish agent in The Hague", the ministry said.

Read more: Turkish-Dutch foreign relations break down; Ambassador recalled | NL Times