The collapse of the Soviet Union and its allied Communist regimes in
Europe was hailed as the ultimate triumph of Western liberal democracy
and capitalism. Francis Fukuyama, the American academic, called it the
“end of history” arguing that the West had finally—and for good—won the
battle of ideologies. Scenes of joy swept Western capitals; darkness at
noon had lifted! Hallelujah. Anyone caught expressing scepticism or
urging humility risked ridicule and humiliation.
Twenty-five
years later, we seem to be looking at another “end of history” episode.
Except that this time it is playing out not in Moscow, Budapest and
Warsaw but in the heartland of Western democracy and capitalism –
London, Washington, Paris, Rome and Berlin. The same remorseless cycle
of ideological boom and bust that brought about the demise of Communism
is now paying a visit to the capitalist West. Liberal democracy and
capitalism—the two great pillars of self-proclaimed Western
supremacy—are in deep crisis, spawning in its wake a politics of rage
and hate on either side of the Atlantic.
It’s by far
the gravest crisis since the Second World War, and threatens the
post-War political and economic stability the West has come to take for
granted. Economy is already in a tailspin and political and social
stability hangs in the balance. There’s a worrying erosion of public
confidence in the political class and democratically elected
representatives—in effect in parliamentary democracy itself. Demagogues
are taking over, prompting fears that power might be shifting from
Parliament on to the streets, reminiscent of the 1930s Germany. That may
be an exaggeration, but it’s hard to escape a growing sense of public
contempt for mainstream politics and a desperate search for alternatives
even if it means plunging into unchartered waters.
It
is a culmination of years of pent-up grievances exacerbated by the
fall-out of the 2008 financial crash whose worst victims were the poor.
But what happened next was like rubbing salt into the wound. While
millions of middle and working class people lost their jobs and had
their homes repossessed, pushing them further into poverty for no fault
of theirs, those responsible for the crash—bankers and their cronies in
government and elsewhere—got away with it. There was much hand-wringing,
mea culpas, and talk of market reforms. A new 21stcentury brand of
“capitalism with a human face” was promised, but nearly a decade later
it is pretty much business as usual with obscene salaries and bonuses
still very much the norm in the corporate sector.
Meanwhile,
globalisation has failed to work for the vast majority of lower, middle
and working classes. Its promised benefits have bypassed them while
benefitting big corporations and a small urban elite. Globalisation was
sold to the public as a bold mission to bring the world closer to the
mutual benefit of everyone, by breaking down trade barriers and
promoting the idea of effectively a single world market. But it was
really always about developed nations gaining access to lucrative new
emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. And about Western companies
being able to save labour costs by outsourcing jobs to low-wage
countries—India, China, Bangladeshi, Sri Lanka, etc. Even Britain's
Labour Party’s ultra-Left leader Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign T-shirts,
which sell for up to £17 a piece, were made by “slave labour” in
Bangladesh who were paid just 30 pence an hour.
Globalisation
has also led to increased economic disparities and a widening of the
rich-poor divide as its benefits have not been equitably distributed;
and blue-collar workers especially find its gains outweighed by losses.
This has got conflated with anger over other issues like racial
discrimination, immigration (the Brexit vote was driven solely by
concerns over large-scale immigration from other EU states), and
corruption in high places completing the image of a system that is not
working for ordinary people.
“A big factor in the anger
and frustration that people are feeling today… is the realisation that
regardless of who is formally elected, an insular ruling elite is
actually in power, pursuing a technocratic agenda that serves the
interests of rich and well-connected insiders rather than the public,’’
wrote Steve Hilton, a former adviser to David Cameron, in The Times.
So,
when an insurgent pretender promises to bring “our jobs back home”,
bring down immigrant numbers, and crack down on corporate greed, people
cheer them seduced by the idea that someone is “listening” to them and
speaking their language. (We had a glimpse of it in India in the 2014
elections.) In Europe, the anti-establishment mood has been fuelled by
European leaders’ strutting and confused response to the Eurozone and
refugee crises—the former resulting in massive job losses and welfare
cuts; and the latter igniting xenophobia. Like globalisation, the EU is
also deemed as a failed project. Both have had the opposite effect of
their intended aim. As Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz has argued, the EU
was intended to foster unity and a sense of shared interests but,
instead, it has ended up causing distrust and grievances. Ironically,
even its poorer constituents (the ex-Communist East European nations)
which have benefited enormously from their EU membership by way of
subsidies and the right their citizens enjoy to settle and work in other
member states are not happy, accusing Brussels of bullying.
But
to cut to the chase, trying to find specific causes for the crisis
gripping the West is to miss the wood for the trees. The short point is
that an exhausted West has run out of tricks in the face of a new
emerging global order; and an increasingly assertive citizenry not
willing to be taken for granted. There is a feel of decay that it cannot
remain business as usual for too long. If someone, somewhere is
contemplating an “End of History 2.0” thesis, time to rush it out.
Large
swathes of middle-class Americans and Europeans are willing to take a
punt on anyone who doesn’t sound like a conventional politician. The
Trump-isation of American politics, the Brexit vote, and the increasing
appeal of populist right-wing figures such as Marie Le Pen in France,
Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and groups like Alternative for
Germany (APD) in Germany are a manifestation of this crisis. According
to The Economist, “populist, authoritarian European parties of the right
and left now enjoy nearly twice as much support as they did in 2000,
and are in government or ruling coalition in nine countries”. This is
no mid-summer madness that has suddenly seized millions of people; nor
is there a right or left-wing conspiracy to destabilise the West.
How did it happen?
It
is a culmination of years of pent-up grievances exacerbated by the
fall-out of the 2008 financial crash whose worst victims were the poor.
But what happened next was like rubbing salt into the wound. While
millions of middle and working class people lost their jobs and had
their homes repossessed, pushing them further into poverty for no fault
of theirs, those responsible for the crash—bankers and their cronies in
government and elsewhere—got away with it. There was much hand-wringing,
mea culpas, and talk of market reforms. A new 21stcentury brand of
“capitalism with a human face” was promised, but nearly a decade later
it is pretty much business as usual with obscene salaries and bonuses
still very much the norm in the corporate sector.
Meanwhile,
globalisation has failed to work for the vast majority of lower, middle
and working classes. Its promised benefits have bypassed them while
benefitting big corporations and a small urban elite. Globalisation was
sold to the public as a bold mission to bring the world closer to the
mutual benefit of everyone, by breaking down trade barriers and
promoting the idea of effectively a single world market. But it was
really always about developed nations gaining access to lucrative new
emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. And about Western companies
being able to save labour costs by outsourcing jobs to low-wage
countries—India, China, Bangladeshi, Sri Lanka, etc. Even Labour Party’s
ultra-Left leader Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign T-shirts, which sell for up
to £17 a piece, were made by “slave labour” in Bangladesh who were paid
just 30 pence an hour.
Globalisation has also led to
increased economic disparities and a widening of the rich-poor divide as
its benefits have not been equitably distributed; and blue-collar
workers especially find its gains outweighed by losses. This has got
conflated with anger over other issues like racial discrimination,
immigration (the Brexit vote was driven solely by concerns over
large-scale immigration from other EU states), and corruption in high
places completing the image of a system that is not working for ordinary
people.
“A big factor in the anger and frustration
that people are feeling today… is the realisation that regardless of who
is formally elected, an insular ruling elite is actually in power,
pursuing a technocratic agenda that serves the interests of rich and
well-connected insiders rather than the public,’’ wrote Steve Hilton, a
former adviser to David Cameron, in The Times.
So,
when an insurgent pretender promises to bring “our jobs back home”,
bring down immigrant numbers, and crack down on corporate greed, people
cheer them seduced by the idea that someone is “listening” to them and
speaking their language. (We had a glimpse of it in India in the 2014
elections.) In Europe, the anti-establishment mood has been fuelled by
European leaders’ strutting and confused response to the Eurozone and
refugee crises—the former resulting in massive job losses and welfare
cuts; and the latter igniting xenophobia. Like globalisation, the EU is
also deemed as a failed project. Both have had the opposite effect of
their intended aim. As Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz has argued, the EU
was intended to foster unity and a sense of shared interests but,
instead, it has ended up causing distrust and grievances. Ironically,
even its poorer constituents (the ex-Communist East European nations)
which have benefited enormously from their EU membership by way of
subsidies and the right their citizens enjoy to settle and work in other
member states are not happy, accusing Brussels of bullying.
But
to cut to the chase, trying to find specific causes for the crisis
gripping the West is to miss the wood for the trees. The short point is
that an exhausted West has run out of tricks in the face of a new
emerging global order; and an increasingly assertive citizenry not
willing to be taken for granted. There is a feel of decay that it cannot
remain business as usual for too long. If someone, somewhere is
contemplating an “End of History 2.0” thesis, time to rush it out.
Read more: End of History 2.0, beginning of gloom
