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Showing posts with label Meltdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Meltdown. Show all posts

October 15, 2020

The US Economy and the US Dollar: the US is facing a dollar collapse by the end of 2021 and an over 50% chance of a double-dip recession, economist Stephen Roach says - by Shalini Nagarajan


  • The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession, the economist Stephen Roach told CNBC on Wednesday.
  • The US has seen economic output rise briefly and then fall in eight of the past 11 business-cycle recoveries, Roach said.
  • Grim second-quarter data cannot be dismissed, he said, pointing out that "the current-account deficit in the United States, which is the broadest measure of our international imbalance with the rest of the world, suffered a record deterioration."
  • Roach last predicted a crash in the dollar index in June, when it was trading at about 96. He said at the time that it would collapse 35% against other major currencies within the next year or two.
The "seemingly crazed idea" that the US dollar will collapse against other major currencies in the post-pandemic global economy is not so crazy anymore, the economist Stephen Roach told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

Roach,a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, also said he sees a more than 50% probability of a double-dip recession in the United States.

He based that prediction on historical evidence, saying that in eight of the past 11 business-cycle recoveries economic output has risen briefly and then fallen.

"It's certainly something that happens more often than not," he said.

Roach last predicted a dollar crash in June, saying it would collapse 35% against other major currencies within the next couple of years. At the time, the dollar index traded at about 96. On Thursday, the index traded at about 94.41.

He said on Wednesday that he expected the collapse to happen by the end of 2021, but he did not say by how much.

Read more at: 
The US is facing a dollar collapse by the end of 2021 and an over 50% chance of a double-dip recession, economist Stephen Roach says | Markets Insider

August 27, 2020

Capitalism: if it can still be revived, needs a complete overhaul

Capitalism’s failures arise from two of its defining elements. The first is perpetual growth. Economic growth is the aggregate effect of the quest to accumulate capital and extract profit. Capitalism collapses without growth, yet perpetual growth on a finite planet leads inexorably to environmental calamity.

Those who defend capitalism argue that, as consumption switches from goods to services, economic growth can be decoupled from the use of material resources. A paper in the journal New Political Economy, by Jason Hickel and Giorgos Kallis, examined this premise. They found that while some relative decoupling took place in the 20th century (material resource consumption grew, but not as quickly as economic growth), in the 21st century there has been a recoupling: rising resource consumption has so far matched or exceeded the rate of economic growth. The absolute decoupling needed to avert environmental catastrophe (a reduction in material resource use) has never been achieved, and appears impossible while economic growth continues. Green growth is an illusion.

A system based on perpetual growth cannot function without peripheries and externalities. There must always be an extraction zone – from which materials are taken without full payment – and a disposal zone, where costs are dumped in the form of waste and pollution. As the scale of economic activity increases until capitalism affects everything, from the atmosphere to the deep ocean floor, the entire planet becomes a sacrifice zone: we all inhabit the periphery of the profit-making machine.

This drives us towards cataclysm on such a scale that most people have no means of imagining it. The threatened collapse of our life-support systems is bigger by far than war, famine, pestilence or economic crisis, though it is likely to incorporate all four. Societies can recover from these apocalyptic events, but not from the loss of soil, an abundant biosphere and a habitable climate.

There is no going back: the alternative to capitalism is neither feudalism nor state communism. Soviet communism had more in common with capitalism than the advocates of either system would care to admit. Both systems are (or were) obsessed with generating economic growth. Both are willing to inflict astonishing levels of harm in pursuit of this and other ends. Both promised a future in which we would need to work for only a few hours a week, but instead demand endless, brutal labour. Both are dehumanising. Both are absolutist, insisting that theirs and theirs alone is the one true God.

From March to June 2020, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos saw his wealth rise by an estimated $48 billion. The journal might also have added that 40 million workers had filed for unemployment compensation and that prison labor was being paid $1 per hour to fight deadly forest fires in California.

Bezos describes his strategy similarly, asserting that “the stronger our market leadership, the more powerful our economic model…we will make bold rather than timid investment decisions where we see a sufficient probability of gaining market leadership advantages.” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has conveyed the same approach, but more to-the-point; for many years, he allegedly ended staff meetings shouting, “Domination!”

The cliché is that we are all in this together. This is so only in the sense that some of us own luxury yachts capacious enough to hold luxury lifeboats while the bottom third clings to leaky life preservers. The mortgages of even many middle-class citizens are soon to be underwater.

What does it mean to have wealth approaching six-figure billions? Sen. Everett Dirksen once famously quipped “a billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you are talking real money.” It is helpful to translate these highly abstract big numbers into the real goods and services one could command with this money.

A state-of-the-art naval destroyer costs about one billion, about the cost of an NBA franchise. One can add a few luxury homes and still have spent only a small fraction of one’s wealth. Clearly possession of an ever-growing stream of goods seems to be an unlikely motivator of the mega wealthy.

During the pandemic, as during the world finance crisis, power has been both the means and the end of domestic and international economic policy. During the early stages of the global economic crisis, government responded by creating a $700 billion facility to purchase troubled assets from banks, but only about 10 percent of these expenditures went to lowering mortgage interest rates.

Federal Reserve treatment of the big finance center banks was much more generous. It lowered the interest rate charged member banks to near zero, a figure it held for almost a decade. The effects of this policy were not neutral.

 Lower rates in the financial sector were supposed to encourage new investment in the real economy but instead did little more than stimulate a bull market in stocks and cheap money to finance stock buybacks and leveraged mergers and acquisitions. (Yves Smith , founder of the blog Naked Capitalism, points out that the only industry for which cheap money is a resource that might encourage further investment is finance. So much for restoring the productivity of main street.)

Monopoly power and concentrated wealth do immense harm to the bottom third of the wealth spectrum. We have returned to Franklin Roosevelt’s one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished. Late last year The Los Angeles Times reported: “New research establishes that after decades of living longer and longer lives, Americans are dying earlier, cut down increasingly in the prime of life by drug overdoses, suicides, and diseases such as cirrhosis, liver cancer, and obesity… the authors of the new study suggest that the nation’s lifespan reversal is being driven by diseases linked to social and economic privation, a healthcare system with glaring gaps and blind spots, and profound psychological distress.”

So what does a better system look like? There is no complete answer, and it also seems no one person does have. But a rough framework is emerging. Part of it is provided by the ecological civilisation proposed by Jeremy Lent, one of the greatest thinkers of our age. Other elements come from Kate Raworth’s doughnut economics and the environmental thinking of Naomi Klein, Amitav Ghosh, Angaangaq Angakkorsuaq, Raj Patel and Bill McKibben. Part of the answer lies in the notion of “private sufficiency, public luxury”. Another part arises from the creation of a new conception of justice based on this simple principle: every generation, everywhere, shall have an equal right to the enjoyment of natural wealth.

The moral case for egalitarian reforms is overwhelming. Obscene wealth disparities are a product of political and economic power, not virtue or extraordinary talent. On the center Left the most popular proposals are various versions of a wealth tax. Such proposals should surely be part of any reform package.

A wealth tax would begin to redress the damage inflicted by four decades of socialism for the rich. And it should be framed that way in order to counter in advance the inevitable carping that tax reformers are motivated by envy. Nonetheless more needs to be promoted in order to address the causes as well as consequences of this inordinate wealth concentration.

Trying to address wealth inequality without addressing monopoly power is like trying to stop a boat with a hole in the bottom from sinking by bailing out the water, but not plugging up the hole.

In addition, it is essential to develop policies that give working-class citizens more voice in designing the economic instruments that will produce future wealth for us all. Antitrust law, cooperatives, labor rights to organize, and democratization of the Fed would all be parts of such reform packages.

The moral choice seems to be, do we stop life to allow capitalism to continue, or stop capitalism to allow life to continue?

The window of opportunity to make radical changes to the defunct Capitalist system is getting smaller by the day, and if not dealt wih rapidly, is surely to result in civil unrest and violence of which the likes have never been seen before.

August 18, 2020

EU Economy: As eurozone records 3.8% slump ECB chief warns of worse to come

Former ECB president Mario Draghi claimed last year that the majority in favour of further loosening was so large that it was unnecessary even to count the votes. Never mind that the countries opposing the decision hold 56% of the ECB’s paid-in equity capital and account for 60% of eurozone output. Counting their compatriots on the ECB governing council, however, they have only seven out of 25 potential votes (subject to a rotating limitation). Draghi did have a majority, then, but it represented a very clear minority of the ECB’s liable capital. This raises considerable concerns about the governing council’s decision-making process.

Todays head of the ECB Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone could be on course for a 15% collapse in output in the second quarter as evidence of the economic toll caused by Covid-19 pandemic started to emerge, with France and Italy falling into recession.

After news that the 19-nation monetary union area had contracted a record 3.8% in the first three months of 2020, Christine Lagarde said much worse was possible in the April to June period, when the impact of lockdown restrictions would be most severe.


 Read more at:

May 27, 2020

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in
November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford
Economics predicted.

Read more at:
Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts - CNN

April 13, 2020

Suriname: Economic Crisis Prompts a Showdown, and a Shutdown, in Suriname - by Harmen Boerboom and Anatoly

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The closures brought a new and unpredictable tension to the streets of Paramaribo, the capital of this nation in the north of South America. Most people stayed home to comply with measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic. ran dry in the cash-based economy and supermarkets, afraid of being overrun by nervous shoppers, were closed. The showdown made Suriname, a Dutch-speaking ethnic melting pot of 600,000, the latest and most extreme example in South America of how the pandemic and a plunge in commodity prices are destabilizing weak economies and polarizing political systems

The slide in the price of Suriname’s two main export commodities, oil and gold, over the past month has effectively left the country without enough hard currency to pay off its debt and import basic goods, leaving the country on the verge of default. In addition, the departure of Dutch tourists as a result of the pandemic, which has sickened eight people in Suriname so far, has deprived the street economy of a significant source of euros.

 Suriname’s economy has gone into a tailspin just as the country is preparing for a crucial vote. In May, its president, the former military dictator Dési Bouterse, will seek another term despite being convicted of homicide by Surinamese judges and of drug trafficking charges by the Dutch.

His son, Dino Bouterse, is serving time in an American prison on drug- and terrorism-related offenses.

 In an effort to shore up the local currency, stem inflation and stop capital flight ahead of the vote, the government imposed strict new restrictions on foreign currency transactions. The governing party pushed the measure through Parliament at last month and it took effect 4 days later.

 The restrictions outraged business people and bankers, who say they repeat the currency controls that ruined neighboring Venezuela, a rare regional supporter of Mr. Bouterse. To repudiate the new limits, they brought commerce to a screeching stop.

“What has happened cannot and will not be tolerated,” said the Association of Surinamese Industry and the Association of Surinamese Manufacturers, which called on its members to strike in a joint statement. One of Suriname’s biggest food companies, Fernandes Group, closed most of its businesses on Wednesday, provoking a run on bread.

 The new measure made black market currency transactions punishable by up to three years in prison, and created a militia to stamp out illicit trading. But even as these measures were rolled out on, the cost of a dollar on the black market jumped to double the official rate as Surinamese rushed to get the scarce hard currency.

Read more at: Economic Crisis Prompts a Showdown, and a Shutdown, in Suriname

December 14, 2019

The Netherlands - Brexit-British elections: 'We've lost our minds': British nationals in NL after election result

British nationals in the Netherlands have been turning to social media to express their feelings following Thursday night’s British election results which will see Brexit become a reality at the end of January next year.

Some 49,000 first generation British nationals currently live in the Netherlands. ‘Gutted beyond words. What happened to the British people? We’ve lost our minds,’ said one woman on Facebook. ‘No fan but hey – at least we are one step closer to knowing where we stand and moving on from the last 3 years…

Always a bright side,’ said another British resident in the Netherlands. ‘The other bright side being – you don’t live there.’ Others pointed out that youngsters will be hardest hit. ‘The future of the UK’s youth has just been made harder.

That is NOT progressing but going back to the days before the young Europeans had job opportunities throughout Europe,’ said Leroy Moorrees on Facebook. Author Ben Coates, who describes himself as a ‘recovering Tory’, said on Twitter people must now accept that millions of people were not tricked into supporting Brexit.

Read more at: 'We've lost our minds': British nationals in NL after election result - DutchNews.nl

May 24, 2019

Britain: As Theresa May quits, Britain is now in total crises mode and falling apart at the seams

Theresa May has bowed to intense pressure from her own party and named 7 June as the day she will step aside as Conservative leader, drawing her turbulent three-year premiership to a close. in Downing Street.

May said it had been “the honour of my life” to serve as Britain’s second female prime minister. Her voice breaking, she said she would leave “with no ill will, but with enormous and enduring gratitude to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love.

Note EU-Digest It is high time for Britain, that a politician with some common sense and courage stands up and acknowledges that when the people voted for Brexit, with a very small majority, the British voters were ill informed, and that there should be a second referendum. If not, the country could be looking ahead at a very grim future.

April 9, 2019

Britain - Brexit: Customs Union at Centre of compromise talks

Brexit: customs union at centre of compromise talks ahead of crucial EU summit 

Note EU Digest : The problem is that Theresa May has not been able to put a concrete proposal together supported by a parliamentary majority in the British parliament, and keeps wasting EU members time and finances discussing "pies in the sky".

It is high time now the EU starts to play some hard ball with Theresa May, and gives her an "indefinite extension" until she can come up with a concrete proposal, which is backed by a majority in the British parliament.

Read more at: https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/07/brexit-uk-prime-minister-says-there-is-still-a-chance-of-a-compromise-deal

February 25, 2019

British EU Relations: More Brexit talks early next week after no breakthrough in Brussels - by Irene Kostaki

The EU’s 27 ambassadors met on February 21 to assess the Brexit talks that took place in Brussels earlier in the week and are awaiting any progress in the discussions that are planned to take place in the week, EU sources confirm.

The European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, debriefed the bloc’s ambassadors about the talks between European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and UK Prime Minister Theresa May on February 20, as well as a discussion Juncker had with his team on the EU side with the UK’ Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Stephen Barclay and Britain’s Attorney General Geoffrey Cox.

After assessing the meetings, the UK side has pushed forward the ‘guarantees’ that were agreed upon during the February 20 talks between Juncker and May.

“Yesterday, the Prime Minister reiterated that the simplest way to get legally binding changes to the (Irish) backstop is to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. That remains the (UK) government’s position,” said the spokesman from the Department for Exiting the European Union, adding that the focus of the two will now be on “guarantees relating to the backstop that underline, once again, its temporary nature and give an appropriate legal assurance to both sides, as well as alternative arrangements and a political declaration, to reach a mutually acceptable agreement”.

The issue of the Irish backstop has been one of the most contentious issues that have plagued the still-unresolved negotiations between Brussels and London. The backstop is designed as an insurance policy, that, in the event that the two sides cannot reach an agreement before the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU, Northern Ireland will remain within the European Union’s regulatory and customs arrangements indefinitely to prevent the emergence of a hard border.

Barclay and Cox “held productive talks with Barnier and his team” to discuss both sides’ current talking points and to reposition their focus on what can be done to conclude a “successful” deal as soon as possible.

“There was an agreement that the talks should now continue urgently at a technical level until the teams of the chief negotiators meet again early next week. Meanwhile, the Attorney General (Cox) will explore further legal options with Barnier’s team.

The EU’s position, at this point, is clear in that the bloc’s approach to the backstop remains unchanged and the leaders of the European Union are determined not to hold a special ‘Brexit Summit’ unless it is clear that a deal has the needed support in the House of Commons to pass. Thus far, however, the sort of consensus that Brussels is looking for from their British counterparts remains elusive.

Juncker has been very vocal in expressing the sentiment of many others all of whom have grown tired of the stalled negotiations, saying, “I have something like Brexit fatigue.” Juncker still believes that a no-deal scenario for the UK is the most likely given the narrow five week timeframe that London has to pass the deal.

“This Brexit thing is deconstruction, it’s not construction. Brexit is the past, it’s not the future” Juncker said. Focusing on his efforts in the coming days, Juncker said, “we are trying to deliver our best efforts in order to have Brexit be organised in a proper and civilised way that is well-thought-out.” He later went on to lay the blame on the British parliament for its inability to pass legislation needed to complete the Brexit process.

“Every time they are voting, there is a majority against something. There is never a majority in favour of something,” said Juncker “If a no-deal happens, and I can’t exclude this, this will have terrible economic and social consequences both in Britain and on the Continent…my efforts are oriented in a way that the worst can be avoided, but I’m not very optimistic when it comes to this issue.”

Read full report here: More Brexit talks early next week after no breakthrough in Brussels

August 27, 2018

USA: Vice President Pence Faces Heightened Scrutiny Over His Relationship with Paul Manafort - by Gwendolyn Smith

The "American Nightmare" has become a reality
Pence has remained largely in the background of the Trump presidency, often working behind the scenes on policy and other issues while Trump takes center stage. As Trump's fortunes have waned, however, those in his orbit are being reexamined.

The line of succession would call for Mike Pence to replace Donald Trump should he be removed from office. Many have feared what a Pence presidency would look like, given his actions as the Governor of Indiana against the LGBTQ community, women, and others.

Amongst the bad news for Trump last week was the indictment of Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort. Manafort was found guilty last week on eight counts of financial crimes in his fraud trial.

It was Paul Manafort who chose Mike Pence as Donald Trump's vice president, with the president reportedly preferring Chris Christie for the role.

The link between Manafort and Pence is leading to additional scrutiny for the vice president, as people ask just what Pence knew about Manafort and his connections.

Many are also curious about Pence's involvements with former adviser Mike Flynn, questioning if he lied to protect the general in January of 2017 when he declared that Flynn had not discussed, "anything having to do with the United States' decision to expel diplomats or impose censure against Russia" with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

Read more: Vice President Pence Faces Heightened Scrutiny Over His Relationship with Paul Manafort | Alternet

July 24, 2018

Brexit: the wheels have fallen off the bus

Read more at:
https://www.theglobalist.com/uk-european-union-brexit-trade-economy/

July 19, 2018

EU, US relations sinking further after divisive Trump tour - by Raf Casert

After a week of the worst barrage of insults yet from U.S. President Donald Trump, the European Union is looking westward toward the White House less and less.

Making it worse, Trump spent Monday cozying up to EU adversary Vladimir Putin in an extraordinary chummy summit with the Russian leader in Helsinki.

Never mind. In an age when Trump has made political optics all-important, on Tuesday the EU struck back. Key EU leaders were in the far east in Japan and China looking for the trust, friendship and cooperation they could no longer get from a century-old ally.

Trump's embrace of Putin and the EU's Asian outreach highlight the yawning rift, widening more by the day, in a trans-Atlantic unity that has been the bedrock of international politics for the better part of a century, as countless graves of U.S. soldiers buried in European soil bear witness to.

Trump's abrasiveness and "America First" insistence had been a given even before he became president. Europe's increasing resignation to letting go of the cherished link to the White House is much more recent.

After last week's brutal NATO summit where Trump derided Europeans as freeloaders, EU chief Donald Tusk spoke on Tuesday of "the increasing darkness of international politics."

"This Helsinki summit is above all another wake-up call for Europe," said Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP center-right group in the European Parliament, the legislature's biggest.

"We Europeans must take our fate in our own hands."

It was a startling sentiment coming from someone who hails from the same German Christian Democrat stock as Angela Merkel, Helmut Kohl and Konrad Adenauer, staunch supporters of the trans-Atlantic link over the past three-quarters century.

There have been other signs of the growing European detachment from the White House, especially after Trump pulled out of the global climate agreement and the Iran nuclear deal the EU brokered.

"With friends like that, who needs enemies?" Tusk asked two months ago.

Soon, Trump had also piled on economic punishment with punitive tariffs on European steel and aluminum.

Then came the NATO summit. Already viewed with apprehension, reality turned out to be worse.

First, Trump called Germany, the powerhouse of the European Union, "captive" to Russia. Then he suggested that Britain should "sue" the EU over Brexit terms. Finally, he finished off by calling the 28-nation bloc a trade "foe."

"For Trump, the categories of friend, ally, partner, opponent, enemy don't exist. For him there is only his own ego," said the head of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, Norbert Roettgen.

So little wonder the EU has turned for friends elsewhere — and found one Tuesday in Japan, where the bloc said it put in place "the largest bilateral trade deal ever."

Up to two years ago, that was supposed to be the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, trade deal between the EU and the United States. But Trump quickly let it be known that such an international agreement would not happen on his watch.

"This is an act of enormous strategic importance for the rules-based international order, at a time when some are questioning this order," Tusk said at a joint news conference in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"We are sending a clear message that we stand together against protectionism."

Despite it all, until last week there had remained hope that on the most critical of geopolitical security issues, Trump would remain true to American ideals. Instead, he unleashed unprecedented criticism at the NATO summit.
 
Fully extracting itself from the United States, though, is a daunting challenge for Europe.

Militarily, with the exceptions of France and Britain, the European allies have lived under the nuclear umbrella of the United States since World War II. Defense cooperation outside of U.S-dominated NATO is only now taking off and the blocked Brexit negotiations make such a prospect fraught with uncertainty.

That military dimension, and the bond between Europe and the United States, have a special resonance in nations like Poland and the Baltic states, which had long been under the thumb of Moscow before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Hence, Monday's Helsinki summit was seen with apprehension that Trump might make dramatic concessions to Putin and leave parts of Europe with too little protection. In Poland, the 1945 Yalta Conference is seen as a symbol of political treason because, without Poland's participation and against Poland's will, it put the country under Soviet control for decades, until 1989.

Read: EU, US relations sinking further after divisive Trump tour

June 9, 2018

Britain-Breexit: A 14th straight YouGov poll shows Britain wishes it had never voted to leave the EU - by Jim Edwards

The British public has moved solidly into “Bregret” territory as a 14th straight YouGov poll shows that a majority of people now believe the decision to leave the EU was “wrong.” This was the most recent poll result:
  • In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
  • Right: 43
  • Wrong: 44
  • Don’t Know: 13
  • Source: YouGov poll published May 20, 2018.
The 1% difference is within the margin of error. However, a majority of the British have believed Brexit is “wrong” since about summer 2017, according to YouGov’s polls. Prior to that, they were marginally in favour of the EU Referendum result from 2016.

Read more: A 14th straight YouGov poll shows Britain wishes it had never voted to leave the EU

May 8, 2018

Global disorder: Trump's Dangerous Neo-Isolationism - by Richard North Patterson

A leader ignorant of history misapprehends its tragedies. A president steeped in grandiosity risks repeating them. Such is Donald Trump. In modern history’s cardinal disaster, virulent nationalism combined with failed diplomacy and great power competition to ignite two catastrophic world wars within 25 years, in turn precipitating a nuclear arms race between America and the Soviet Union. In response, we encouraged democratic partners in Europe and Asia to join us in alliances like NATO, and global institutions like the United Nations and WTO.

This model promoted democracy, free trade and shared strategic and economic interests rather than unconstrained nationalism – and, while imperfect, gave us seven decades of relative stability.
Now the global order is under attack
.
Authoritarians squelch democracy. Populists scorn free trade. Resurgent nationalism and tribalism hamstring international cooperation. These threats come from all sides – including America’s president.

Read more: Trump's Dangerous Neo-Isolationism | HuffPost

October 14, 2017

Brexit: Europe will be big Brexit winner, says German economics minister-by Guy Chazan and Claire Jones

Europe will be the big winner of Brexit, Germany’s economics minister said, as UK-headquartered companies move to the continent and Emmanuel Macron’s reform push leads to a new “spirit of revival” that will benefit the whole of the EU.

 Brigitte Zypries made the prediction on Wednesday as she revealed the German economy was growing at a faster rate than previously estimated. The government now expects gross domestic product growth of 2 per cent this year, up from a forecast of 1.5 per cent, as Europe’s economic powerhouse continues to charge ahead.

The economy will also grow by 1.9 per cent in 2018, she said. Ms Zypries said Germany’s economic boom had “gained momentum and become more broad-based”.

The economy would “also remain on a growth trajectory in the years to come”. “Germany is doing well and the next government must ensure that it continues to do so,” she said at a press conference in Berlin.

The global economic recovery had stimulated German exports and led to an increase in private sector investment: incomes were rising and unemployment falling. The number of people in work had grown by 2.5m during the past four years. 

Read more: Europe will be big Brexit winner, says German economics minister

July 7, 2017

USA: Trump has made US politics ridiculous - E.J. Dionne Jr

The most corrosive aspect of Donald Trump’s presidency is its rousing success in making our politics ridiculous.

The political class (yes, including columnists) is obsessed with his most unnerving statements, especially on Twitter. These are analyzed as if they were tablets from heaven or the learned pronouncements of a wise elder.

Various kinds of strategic genius are ascribed to Trump. He’s getting us to focus on this because he doesn’t want us to focus on that . He’s shifting attention away from a Republican health-care bill that breaks a litany of his campaign vows. Maybe he posted that video of his imagined wrestling match with the CNN logo because he realized that in attacking MSNBC’s Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough, he strayed from his central, anti-CNN message.

Read more: Trump has made our politics ridiculous - The Washington Post

February 14, 2017

The Environment: Temperatures Skyrocket in Arctic, Prompt Desperate 'Refreeze' Plan

Temperature readings near the North Pole soared to 50 degrees F above average on Friday, as a storm pushed warm air into the Arctic region.

This is the third such worryingly warm period this winter and sea ice figures released last week show the lowest January ice extent in satellite record—nearly 500,000 square miles below average.

The situation in the region is so alarming that a team of scientists from Arizona State University have published a plan to "refreeze" the Arctic in the American Geophysical Union's journal Earth's Future.

The fact that the $500 billion plan, which would use millions of wind pumps to circulate colder water to the surface of the ice, is even being discussed "reveals just how desperately worried researchers have become about the Arctic," reported the Guardian.

Read more: Temperatures Skyrocket in Arctic, Prompt Desperate 'Refreeze' Plan

October 18, 2016

Britain - Brexit: The Worst of All Policy Ideas - by Stephan Richter

Brexit is the UK equivalent of the United States launching the Iraq War: Noble intentions perhaps, but an utterly self-defeatist move.

Come to think of it, Brexit is the worst of all policy ideas.

The whole idea militates against longstanding notions of British pragmatism. That smart school of thought always asks one simple question: What is the fastest, least cumbersome way to obtain a payoff for a policy move?

Brexit is the exact opposite of that: It is a highly complex maneuver with a very uncertain outcome and an equally uncertain payoff. In that sense, the Brexit agenda is entirely un-British.

Indeed, Brexit is such an abstract policy “idea” that it bears all the hallmarks of literally being a proverbial brain fart coming out of the obtuse minds of leftist French intellectuals.

It is well known that they have a strong penchant for trying to make the world fit their ideological predilections even against impossible odds.

What has been unknown to date is that British conservatives evidently seek to emulate those French intellectuals.

The most charitable thing one could say about Brexit is that British ultra-“sovereigntists” – sadly including Theresa May, the country’s new Prime Minister – may have noble intentions.

But these intentions are entirely naïve. They are, in fact, as laudable as the U.S. neocons’ ill-fated desire to “bring democracy to the Middle East.” Given where the Middle East is, those intentions, even if taken at face value, are at best wholly impractical and dangerously delusional.

Top British policymakers – Messrs. Johnson, Davis and Fox, the Theresa May’s “Three Musketeers” – and their supporters in the chattering class will find out a most unpleasant fact of life soon.

Many nations in the world have far more important goals to pursue than discussing the future possibility of a potential bilateral trade deal with the British government.

No matter how often British negotiators refer to the seemingly golden fact that the UK is the world’s fifth-largest economy, it won’t account for much.

In such a world, dealing with the UK is way down the agenda – as U.S. President Barack Obama made refreshingly clear during his pre-Brexit visit, when he talked about the UK finding itself at the end of a long queue for trade negotiations. 

Virtually every other nation is busy working on terrorism, finding strategies to promote employment for young people, securing pensions for old age and so forth.

Theresa May and the Brexit mastermind trio of Johnson, Davis and Fox must still believe that these are the days of Viceroy Mountbatten: London (or one of its representatives) calls – and the world jumps to attention. Not so.

Once it is understood just how badly they are overselling their case, frustration will settle in quickly.
 
Contrary to their continuing promises, they will have a very hard time to come up with any quick successes.

This is due to the very complex, interlocking logic of international trade deals – which British negotiators helped co-invent over the centuries.

Read more: Brexit: The Worst of All Policy Ideas

August 10, 2016

Is History Repeating itself?: End of History 2.0, beginning of gloom ?

The collapse of the Soviet Union and its allied Communist regimes in Europe was hailed as the ultimate triumph of Western liberal democracy and capitalism. Francis Fukuyama, the American academic, called it the “end of history” arguing that the West had finally—and for good—won the battle of ideologies. Scenes of joy swept Western capitals; darkness at noon had lifted! Hallelujah. Anyone caught expressing scepticism or urging humility risked ridicule and humiliation.

Twenty-five years later, we seem to be looking at another “end of history” episode. Except that this time it is playing out not in Moscow, Budapest and Warsaw but in the heartland of Western democracy and  capitalism – London, Washington, Paris, Rome and Berlin. The same remorseless cycle of ideological boom and bust that brought about the demise of Communism is now paying a visit to the capitalist West. Liberal democracy and capitalism—the two great pillars of self-proclaimed Western supremacy—are in deep crisis, spawning in its wake a politics of rage and hate on either side of the Atlantic.

It’s by far the gravest crisis since the Second World War, and threatens the post-War political and economic stability the West has come to take for granted. Economy is already in a tailspin and political and social stability hangs in the balance. There’s a worrying erosion of public confidence in the political class and democratically elected representatives—in effect in parliamentary democracy itself. Demagogues are taking over, prompting fears that power might be shifting from Parliament on to the streets, reminiscent of the 1930s Germany. That may be an exaggeration, but it’s hard to escape a growing sense of public contempt for mainstream politics and a desperate search for alternatives even if it means plunging into unchartered waters.

It is a culmination of years of pent-up grievances exacerbated by the fall-out of the 2008 financial crash whose worst victims were the poor. But what happened next was like rubbing salt into the wound. While millions of middle and working class people lost their jobs and had their homes repossessed, pushing them further into poverty for no fault of theirs, those responsible for the crash—bankers and their cronies in government and elsewhere—got away with it. There was much hand-wringing, mea culpas, and talk of market reforms. A new 21stcentury brand of “capitalism with a human face” was promised, but nearly a decade later it is pretty much business as usual with obscene salaries and bonuses still very much the norm in the corporate sector.

Meanwhile, globalisation has failed to work for the vast majority of lower, middle and working classes. Its promised benefits have bypassed them while benefitting big corporations and a small urban elite. Globalisation was sold to the public as a bold mission to bring the world closer to the mutual benefit of everyone, by breaking down trade barriers and promoting the idea of effectively a single world market. But it was really always about developed nations gaining access to lucrative new emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. And about Western companies being able to save labour costs by outsourcing jobs to low-wage countries—India, China, Bangladeshi, Sri Lanka, etc. Even Britain's Labour Party’s ultra-Left  leader Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign T-shirts, which sell for up to £17 a piece, were made by “slave labour” in Bangladesh who were paid just 30 pence an hour.

Globalisation has also led to increased economic disparities and a widening of the rich-poor divide as its benefits have not been equitably distributed; and blue-collar workers especially find its gains outweighed by losses. This has got conflated with anger over other issues like racial discrimination, immigration (the Brexit vote was driven solely by concerns over large-scale immigration from other EU states), and corruption in high places completing the image of a system that is not working for ordinary people.

“A big factor in the anger and frustration that people are feeling today… is the realisation that regardless of who is formally elected, an insular ruling elite is actually in power, pursuing a technocratic agenda that serves the interests of rich and well-connected insiders rather than the public,’’ wrote  Steve Hilton, a former adviser to David Cameron, in The Times.

So, when an insurgent pretender promises to bring “our jobs back home”, bring down immigrant numbers, and crack down on corporate greed, people cheer them seduced by the idea that someone is “listening” to them and speaking their language. (We had a glimpse of it in India in the 2014 elections.) In Europe, the anti-establishment mood has been fuelled by European leaders’ strutting and confused response to the Eurozone and refugee crises—the former resulting in massive job losses and welfare cuts; and the latter igniting xenophobia. Like globalisation, the EU is also deemed as a failed project. Both have had the opposite effect of their intended aim. As Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz has argued, the EU was intended to foster unity and a sense of shared interests but, instead, it has ended up causing distrust and grievances. Ironically, even its poorer constituents (the ex-Communist East European nations) which have benefited enormously from their EU membership by way of subsidies and the right their citizens enjoy to settle and work in other member states are not happy, accusing Brussels of bullying.

But to cut to the chase, trying to find specific causes for the crisis gripping the West is to miss the wood for the trees. The short point is that an exhausted West has run out of tricks in the face of a new emerging global order; and an increasingly assertive citizenry not willing to be taken for granted. There is a feel of decay that it cannot remain business as usual for too long. If someone, somewhere is contemplating an “End of History 2.0” thesis, time to rush it out.

Large swathes of middle-class Americans and Europeans are willing to take a punt on anyone who doesn’t sound like a conventional politician. The Trump-isation of American politics, the Brexit vote, and the increasing appeal of populist right-wing figures such as Marie Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and groups like Alternative for Germany (APD) in Germany are a manifestation of this crisis. According to The Economist, “populist, authoritarian European parties of the right and left now enjoy nearly twice as much support as they did in 2000, and are in government or ruling coalition in nine countries”.  This is no mid-summer madness that has suddenly seized millions of people; nor is there a right or left-wing conspiracy to destabilise the West.

How did it happen?

It is a culmination of years of pent-up grievances exacerbated by the fall-out of the 2008 financial crash whose worst victims were the poor. But what happened next was like rubbing salt into the wound. While millions of middle and working class people lost their jobs and had their homes repossessed, pushing them further into poverty for no fault of theirs, those responsible for the crash—bankers and their cronies in government and elsewhere—got away with it. There was much hand-wringing, mea culpas, and talk of market reforms. A new 21stcentury brand of “capitalism with a human face” was promised, but nearly a decade later it is pretty much business as usual with obscene salaries and bonuses still very much the norm in the corporate sector.

Meanwhile, globalisation has failed to work for the vast majority of lower, middle and working classes. Its promised benefits have bypassed them while benefitting big corporations and a small urban elite. Globalisation was sold to the public as a bold mission to bring the world closer to the mutual benefit of everyone, by breaking down trade barriers and promoting the idea of effectively a single world market. But it was really always about developed nations gaining access to lucrative new emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. And about Western companies being able to save labour costs by outsourcing jobs to low-wage countries—India, China, Bangladeshi, Sri Lanka, etc. Even Labour Party’s ultra-Left  leader Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign T-shirts, which sell for up to £17 a piece, were made by “slave labour” in Bangladesh who were paid just 30 pence an hour.

Globalisation has also led to increased economic disparities and a widening of the rich-poor divide as its benefits have not been equitably distributed; and blue-collar workers especially find its gains outweighed by losses. This has got conflated with anger over other issues like racial discrimination, immigration (the Brexit vote was driven solely by concerns over large-scale immigration from other EU states), and corruption in high places completing the image of a system that is not working for ordinary people.

“A big factor in the anger and frustration that people are feeling today… is the realisation that regardless of who is formally elected, an insular ruling elite is actually in power, pursuing a technocratic agenda that serves the interests of rich and well-connected insiders rather than the public,’’ wrote  Steve Hilton, a former adviser to David Cameron, in The Times.

So, when an insurgent pretender promises to bring “our jobs back home”, bring down immigrant numbers, and crack down on corporate greed, people cheer them seduced by the idea that someone is “listening” to them and speaking their language. (We had a glimpse of it in India in the 2014 elections.) In Europe, the anti-establishment mood has been fuelled by European leaders’ strutting and confused response to the Eurozone and refugee crises—the former resulting in massive job losses and welfare cuts; and the latter igniting xenophobia. Like globalisation, the EU is also deemed as a failed project. Both have had the opposite effect of their intended aim. As Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz has argued, the EU was intended to foster unity and a sense of shared interests but, instead, it has ended up causing distrust and grievances. Ironically, even its poorer constituents (the ex-Communist East European nations) which have benefited enormously from their EU membership by way of subsidies and the right their citizens enjoy to settle and work in other member states are not happy, accusing Brussels of bullying.

But to cut to the chase, trying to find specific causes for the crisis gripping the West is to miss the wood for the trees. The short point is that an exhausted West has run out of tricks in the face of a new emerging global order; and an increasingly assertive citizenry not willing to be taken for granted. There is a feel of decay that it cannot remain business as usual for too long. If someone, somewhere is contemplating an “End of History 2.0” thesis, time to rush it out.

Read more: End of History 2.0, beginning of gloom