The Netherlands: Fitch Affirms Netherlands at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

The Netherlands' 'AAA' rating is supported by a high value-added, flexible and open economy, a structurally strong external position and effective institutions, as reflected in the World Bank's governance indicators. The Netherlands' public debt ratio has risen further above the 'AAA' median as a result of the policy response to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, a strong record of sound fiscal management and the authorities' plans to narrow the deficit beginning in 2022 gives confidence that the debt ratio will decline over the medium term after the coronavirus pandemic subsides.

Read more at: Fitch Affirms Netherlands at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

Eurozone reform—it’s not just the fiscal rules –by Willi Koll

The Covid-19 pandemic has eclipsed the general overhaul of the economic-policy framework of the European Union and the eurozone initiated in February by the European Commission. Comprehensive reform of economic governance remains nevertheless urgent and indispensable.

Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the Regulation on the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances (MIP), within the framework of the ‘six-pack’ and ‘two-pack’ of the European Semester and other regulations, should again be at the centre of discussions, as soon as—at the latest—the consequences of the pandemic have been dealt with.

Read more at: Eurozone reform—it’s not just the fiscal rules – Willi Koll

Dutch economy outperforming others because of “intelligent lockdown”

While the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic dealt an unprecedented blow to the Dutch economy, the Netherlands is still doing better than many other European countries, Statistics Netherlands reported on Tuesday. This may have to do with the Netherlands' "intelligent lockdown" keeping more sectors open than in other countries with stricter lockdowns.

In the second quarter, the Dutch economy contracted by 8.5 percent compared to the previous quarter. "This was the strongest contraction ever recorded," the stats office said. But compared to other European countries, the Dutch economy came off favorably. Germany's economy shrank by 9.7 percent, Belgium's by 12.1 percent, and France's by 13.8 percent

Read more at: Dutch economy outperforming others because of “intelligent lockdown” | NL Times

The Netherlands must be ready for serious economic setbacks, says king

The Netherlands must ready itself for serious economic setbacks, king Willem Alexander said on Tuesday afternoon, in his official speech to mark the start of the parliamentary year.

The Dutch economy and government finances are healthy and financial buffers have been built up over the past few years which we can now benefit from, the king said. ‘Now we have to ready ourselves for the consequences of a serious economic setback, which will impact the economy and government finances in the long term,’ he said.

Much depends on how long coronavirus keeps us in its grip, he said. ‘But the recent figures and prognoses are unheard of in peace time,’ he said. ‘The economic setbacks facing our biggest European and global trading partners are in many cases even greater. For an open country like the Netherlands, with its focus on trade and exports, this is an extra complication, especially in the wake of Brexit.’

Read more at: 
The Netherlands must be ready for serious economic setbacks, says king - DutchNews.nl

The Netherlands must be ready for serious economic setbacks, says king

The Netherlands must ready itself for serious economic setbacks, king Willem Alexander said on Tuesday afternoon, in his official speech to  mark the start of the parliamentary year.

The Dutch economy and government finances are healthy and financial  buffers have been built up over the past few years which we can now  benefit from, the king said. ‘Now we have to ready ourselves for the  consequences of a serious economic setback, which will impact the  economy and government finances in the long term,’ he said.

Much  depends on how long coronavirus keeps us in its grip, he said. ‘But the  recent figures and prognoses are unheard of in peace time,’ he said.  The economic setbacks facing our biggest European and global trading  partners are in many cases even greater. For an open country like the  Netherlands, with its focus on trade and exports, this is an extra  complication, especially in the wake of Brexit.’
 

Read more at:   The Netherlands must be ready for serious economic setbacks, says king - DutchNews.nl

EU Economy: As eurozone records 3.8% slump ECB chief warns of worse to come

Former ECB president Mario Draghi claimed last year that the majority in favour of further loosening was so large that it was unnecessary even to count the votes. Never mind that the countries opposing the decision hold 56% of the ECB’s paid-in equity capital and account for 60% of eurozone output. Counting their compatriots on the ECB governing council, however, they have only seven out of 25 potential votes (subject to a rotating limitation). Draghi did have a majority, then, but it represented a very clear minority of the ECB’s liable capital. This raises considerable concerns about the governing council’s decision-making process.

Todays head of the ECB Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone could be on course for a 15% collapse in output in the second quarter as evidence of the economic toll caused by Covid-19 pandemic started to emerge, with France and Italy falling into recession.

After news that the 19-nation monetary union area had contracted a record 3.8% in the first three months of 2020, Christine Lagarde said much worse was possible in the April to June period, when the impact of lockdown restrictions would be most severe.

 Read more at:

As eurozone records 3.8% slump ECB chief warns of worse to come

The Netherlands: Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

 In this blog written for IMF Country Focus, the IMF’s mission  brief for the Netherlands, Alfredo Cuevas, explains that this economic integration could signal a slower recovery for the country from the crisis.

The GDP growth forecasts for the Netherlands issued by the IMF in its April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) surprised many, not only for the large negative 2020 number itself, but for it being weaker than some other leading European economies. Let me make some general considerations about orecasting amid today’s immense uncertainties, and then look at the Dutch
economy.

Economists often conceptualize macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, as the sum of a predictable or systematic component and an unpredictable shock. We develop and estimate statistical models of the predictable part and use them to make forecasts.

Read more at: 
Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

US Economy: New wave of U.S. layoffs feared as coronavirus pain deepens

 Job cuts by U.S. state and local governments whose budgets have been
crushed fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and more second-wave layoffs in
the private sector likely contributed last week to a 10th straight week
of more than 2 million Americans seeking unemployment benefits.

Read more at:
New wave of U.S. layoffs feared as coronavirus pain deepens - Reuters

Suriname: Economic Crisis Prompts a Showdown, and a Shutdown, in Suriname - by Harmen Boerboom and Anatoly

From the New York Times comes the report that the Suriname ground to a halt recently as its banks, shops and factories shuttered in a showdown between its beleaguered private sector and its authoritarian government over how to respond to a deepening economic crisis.

The closures brought a new and unpredictable tension to the streets of Paramaribo, the capital of this nation in the north of South America. Most people stayed home to comply with measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic. ran dry in the cash-based economy and supermarkets, afraid of being overrun by nervous shoppers, were closed. The showdown made Suriname, a Dutch-speaking ethnic melting pot of 600,000, the latest and most extreme example in South America of how the pandemic and a plunge in commodity prices are destabilizing weak economies and polarizing political systems

The slide in the price of Suriname’s two main export commodities, oil and gold, over the past month has effectively left the country without enough hard currency to pay off its debt and import basic goods, leaving the country on the verge of default. In addition, the departure of Dutch tourists as a result of the pandemic, which has sickened eight people in Suriname so far, has deprived the street economy of a significant source of euros.

 Suriname’s economy has gone into a tailspin just as the country is preparing for a crucial vote. In May, its president, the former military dictator Dési Bouterse, will seek another term despite being convicted of homicide by Surinamese judges and of drug trafficking charges by the Dutch.

His son, Dino Bouterse, is serving time in an American prison on drug- and terrorism-related offenses.

 In an effort to shore up the local currency, stem inflation and stop capital flight ahead of the vote, the government imposed strict new restrictions on foreign currency transactions. The governing party pushed the measure through Parliament at last month and it took effect 4 days later.

 The restrictions outraged business people and bankers, who say they repeat the currency controls that ruined neighboring Venezuela, a rare regional supporter of Mr. Bouterse. To repudiate the new limits, they brought commerce to a screeching stop.

“What has happened cannot and will not be tolerated,” said the Association of Surinamese Industry and the Association of Surinamese Manufacturers, which called on its members to strike in a joint statement. One of Suriname’s biggest food companies, Fernandes Group, closed most of its businesses on Wednesday, provoking a run on bread.

 The new measure made black market currency transactions punishable by up to three years in prison, and created a militia to stamp out illicit trading. But even as these measures were rolled out on, the cost of a dollar on the black market jumped to double the official rate as Surinamese rushed to get the scarce hard currency.

Read more at: Economic Crisis Prompts a Showdown, and a Shutdown, in Suriname

Dutch flower industry continues to wither amid coronavirus

Growers are preserving what they have in storage or fields, however the reality is that almost all of this 12 month’s harvest will possible go to waste.

“The loss is huge,” said Michel van Schie of FloraHolland, the world’s dominant flower clearing house for public sales.

“In the intervening time we now have solely 30% of our regular turnover, and ... that during the busiest period of the year.”

Each day gross sales in March typically move 20 million euros ($22 million) of flowers, which continue with strong sales into the Easter vacation and Mothers Day..

In all, 35% of the world's flower and plant exports, valued at 6.2 billion euros over a 12 months period, move through the Netherlands, principally from Dutch growers, but additionally from African and Latin American farms.

Van Schie said the situation became specially acute on March 13 with the  flight cancellations and bans on public gatherings at many international events. This meant almost 1 / 4 of flowers up for public sale that day went unsold and had to be thrown out.

“Subsequent on that Monday it was 50%, after which we had to take unpleasant measures and we had to tell our growers ‘please diminish your stock’ as a result much of the stock had to be destroyed.”

Read more at: Dutch flower industry continues to wither amid coronavirus - Sunriseread

The Netherlands: Dutch economy growing greener

As reported in Statistics Netherlands’ latest publication Green Growth in the Netherlands 2015, the Dutch economy has become ‘greener’ over the past 15 years. Out of the six different themes structured around green growth, progress has been made on five themes. For example, environmental efficiency in the economy is improving, although compared to other European countries the Netherlands obtains a relatively low score on this theme.

Green growth is measured by using a framework of environmental and economic indicators as defined by the OECD. Within this framework, six themes were identified: environmental efficiency, raw material efficiency, natural resources, environmental quality, green policy instruments and economic opportunities. These themes cover a total of 36 indicators.

Over the period 2000-2014, the Netherlands made headway on 22 of the indicators while it retreated on 8. As a result, improvement rather than deterioration can be seen on five out of six themes. In spite of this advance, the Netherlands is in the bottom half of the European ranking on four out of the six themes, and its position has not improved in recent years. Other countries, too, are putting less economic pressure on the environment than in the past.

Read more at: Dutch economy growing greener

Germany: In 20 years, 1 in 3 people will be a migrant

In large cities of Germany up to 70% of inhabitants will have a migrant background in two decades, experts say. Germany will need to attract a "range of nationalities" to keep the "economy stable."

Read more at:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-in-20-years-1-in-3-people-will-be-a-migrant/a-51101172

The have and have nots; Analysis Shows Top 1% Gained $21 Trillion in Wealth Since 1989 While Bottom Half Lost $900 Billion

Read more at:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/14/eye-popping-analysis-shows-top-1-gained-21-trillion-wealth-1989-while-bottom-half

EU Commission: A new team to defend Europe’s economic sovereignty – by Jorge Valero

Achieving a “more assertive” Europe that can improve its competitiveness and sovereignty in an increasingly hostile world.

These are the main guidelines of President-elect Ursula von der Leyen to the new College of Commissioners, unveiled on Tuesday (10 September).

Europe is losing ground in the digital race that is reshaping the economy and society at large. China is now considered a “systemic rival”, while the US is no longer a reliable partner since the election of Donald Trump, with preparations underway in Washington to step up the trade war against Europe. 

According to Ursula von der Leyen, this is why the protection of Europe’s sovereignty – and its economic might – has to be top of the agenda for her new team of commissioners.

 Read more: A new team to defend Europe’s economic sovereignty – EURACTIV.com

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EU-Migration Policies: Tragedy is inevitable if we fear migration rather than celebrate its benefits : by Jonathan Portes

Migrants don’t steal jobs or bring down wages. Rather, they’re more likely to bring dynamism and prosperity

our years ago, Europeans were shocked by the photograph of the drowned three-year old Syrian refugee Alan Kurdi. Now, Americans are similarly horrified by pictures of El Salvadorans Óscar Alberto Martínez Ramírez and his daughter, Angie Valeria, dead on the banks of the Rio Grande. Meanwhile, in the UK we are struggling with what our immigration policy should look like after Brexit, with Boris Johnson trying to have his cake and eat it with the promise of an “Australian-style points system”.
 
Few subjects are more politically charged than immigration. However, like free trade, it unites most economists, regardless of their politics. Immigrants don’t take our jobs, nor do they have much impact on wages. Just look at the UK, where sustained high levels of immigration have coincided with unemployment falling to its lowest level in 40 years.

More importantly, immigration makes economies more dynamic and is generally positive for productivity and prosperity. Even legitimate concerns about “brain drain” from developing countries turn out to be exaggerated, with such countries often gaining from remittances and new economic connections.

The economic and political forces driving immigration are only likely to intensify, in both Europe and the rest of the developed world. They will be powered by “demand” – demographic pressures, with every single country in Europe having a fertility rate below replacement level – and “supply” – population growth in developing countries, especially in Africa, and perhaps climate change. So the number of people seeking to move countries, whether through economic migration, refugee flows or a mix, will continue to grow. At the same time, we will need migration; even Japan, long resistant, has recently begun to liberalise policy.

If the economic benefits are clear, what explains the recent political backlash? What is the connection between the election of Donald Trump, the Brexit vote and the rise of far-right populists in continental Europe? A decade on from the financial crisis, the political foundations of the postwar (and post-cold-war) liberal order appear to be crumbling.

But while anti-immigrant rhetoric and sentiment are common themes, the circumstances of individual countries are very different. In the US, Trump’s focus is on irregular migration from Mexico and Central America and its supposed impact on crime and security, although there is little or no evidence, in the US or elsewhere, to substantiate his claims. In the UK, the ostensible focus of the Brexit campaign was on EU free movement, predominantly by white eastern Europeans, although future migration from Turkey and points farther east was also a strong theme. In western European countries such as Sweden, Germany, France and Italy, rightwing populists were boosted by public reaction to refugee and migrant flows from Syria and Africa. And in Poland and Hungary, while immigrant flows are extremely small, parties in power have successfully appealed to nationalist sentiments by focusing on the threat of Muslim immigration overrunning “Christian” Europe.

Twitter is full of lunatics who talk about “race replacement” or “white genocide”. But more respectable versions of much the same argument can be found in the mainstream press. London’s population is no longer majority “white British”, but most of us were born in the UK and even more identify as British (white, black, Asian or mixed) and have British citizenship. Nevertheless, the eminent economist Paul Collier claims that the “indigenous British [have] become a minority in their own capital”. Spectator writer Douglas Murray, who argues for reducing or eliminating Muslim immigration, says London has become a “foreign country”. Eric Kaufmann, a political scientist and author of Whiteshift, suggests that we should favour immigrants from ethnic or cultural backgrounds who are easier to “assimilate” into the white majority. The favourite philosopher of some Conservatives, Roger Scruton, thinks it’s impossible for the (British-born) children of Muslim immigrants to be loyal British citizens. So the view that only white people can be “really” British, and that black or Asian Britons are still somehow alien and threatening, remains prevalent in some elite circles.

Some argue that if progressive politicians fail to accommodate these views, they will drive their traditional voters to the populist right. But there’s little evidence that this will help those most vulnerable to the lure of rightwing populism or improve public perceptions of immigration. Instead, countries such as Ireland, Canada, and Spain have combined relatively open policies with public consent by building a pro-migration coalition across much of the political spectrum.

Germany offers a particularly striking example. Amid the panic about the refugee influx in 2015, I wrote that it was an opportunity more than a threat. But many argued that it would be impossible, economically, socially or politically, to absorb so many people from supposedly “alien” cultures. But three years on, while far from perfect, the balance sheet appears mostly positive. Refugees are learning German and getting jobs. Although the far right continues to try to whip up anti-immigrant hysteria, crime is at its lowest level in almost 30 years.

Brexit, paradoxically, offers a window of opportunity. The most illiberal and restrictionist prime minister in living memory is about to depart. Public concern about immigration has fallen sharply and attitudes towards its effects are more positive than for many years. Both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, as well as the home secretary, Sajid Javid, have signalled that they want an immigration policy better attuned to the needs of the UK economy.

Politicians could make the case for liberal policy not just on economic grounds but much more broadly, defending the rights of immigrants, eg EU citizens resident in the UK, UK-born children of immigrants who are denied British citizenship, UK citizens who marry people from abroad, and so on. This would also include a more positive approach to the impacts of immigration on communities and services at a local level – by promoting integration and channelling funding to areas where there are pressures resulting from population growth. There is a chance for a “reset moment” not just in policy but in our wider public and political attitudes to immigration and immigrants: we should not let it slip away.  

Read more: Tragedy is inevitable if we fear migration rather than celebrate its benefits | Jonathan Port

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EU-Japan Trade deal: Five things about the world's biggest trade deal

EU-Japan trade: Five things about the world's biggest deal

Read more at: 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47086737

Britain-Brexit: The Messier Brexit Gets, the Better Europe Looks - by Steven Erlanger

After Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, its leaders were in a panic. It was mired in a migration crisis and anti-Europe, populist forces were gaining. Britain’s decision seemed to herald the start of a great unraveling.

Two years later, as Britain’s exit from the bloc, or Brexit, looks increasingly messy and self-destructive, there is a growing sense, even in the populist corners of the continent, that if this is what leaving looks like, no, thank you.

Nothing has brought the European Union together quite as much as Britain’s chaotic breakdown. “A country is leaving and has gotten itself into a right old mess, making itself ridiculous to its European partners,” said Rosa Balfour, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.

The challenges facing Europe — low growth, eurozone governance, migration, debt, border security and populism — have by no means gone away. Nor has Europe found consensus on how to deal with them.

The very prospect of losing a country like Britain, considered so pragmatic and important in the world, is deeply wounding for the EU.

But on the whole, while all parties will suffer with Brexit, particularly in the event of a so-called “no deal” departure, analysts tend to agree that the European Union, which will remain the world’s largest market, is likely to fare far better than Britain.

 Read more at :The Messier Brexit Gets, the Better Europe Looks - The New York Times: Steven Erlanger

EU: Migrants stimulate the economy - hope you and your right-wing populist followers around the world are reading this Donald Trump

Migrants from EU boosting the German economy study shows

Read more at:
https://p.dw.com/p/37Psh

Turkey: Economy is thriving, despite what Analysts say

Via euronews: Trade Minister: The real Turkish economy is proving analysts wrong | View

Read also:
https://www.euronews.com/2018/10/16/trade-minister-the-real-turkish-economy-is-proving-analysts-wrong-view

Turkey: No question, Erdogan is a ruthless dictator, who has bled his country's economy dry, and the EU must not look the other way - by Ahmet Ardani

Turkey: If this is not a dictatorship, what is it?

One publication in the EU recently noted in a report about Turkey's Erdogan: "The man in the big palace is not only a crook. but also a full fledged dictator ".

This should also reinforce the doubts that every intelligent person had about whether it was a real coup attempt at all two years ago in Turkey, or just a staged one. There are plenty of people who thought it was put on by the government of Erdogan, for the sake of purging and jailing its opponents.

We need not do more than to listen to Erdogan’s own declarations. He openly called that “coup” an opportunity for purging his enemies, and just as soon as he defeated the alleged coup attempt, he had a very long list of thousands of enemies to eliminate.

His forces moved immediately to arrest these folks. For most of them, their only failing was that they don’t blindly follow Erdogan.

Ruling in an ever more totalitarian fashion, Erdogan has taken control over all public institutions – the media and the schools, the courts and the police, the civil bureaucracy and the armed forces.

At least 50,000 people have been arrested and 150,000 purged. His Islamist party, AKP, has used these methods to consolidate control in practically all of the structures of Turkish life.

There’s even a detailed report of the Stockholm Center for Freedom, which found evidence from four days before the ostensible coup that a plan was circulated, with Erdogan’s approval, in the Armed Forces to make it look like there was a coup attempt.

It’s sad that most of the EU press, eager-to-please their governments have become quite lazy about this. They have developed a habit of calling it a “coup attempt,” when they do not in fact know that it was any such thing.

It’s high time to stop being complicit in playing Erdogan´s PR game and start being honest to the public. From all we know for sure, it’s just an alleged coup attempt.

The Erdogan regime, however, is profiting from it enormously, to pseudo-legitimize its totalitarian turn and to conduct purges from top to bottom.

We need not do more than to listen to Erdogan’s own declarations. He openly called that “coup” an opportunity for purging his enemies. Just as soon as he defeated the alleged coup attempt, he had a very long list of thousands of enemies ready to arrest.

His forces moved immediately to arrest these folks. For most of them, their only failing it is that they don’t blindly follow Erdogan.

Erdogan was also immediately ready to organize a mass mobilization against the alleged coup, and to synchronize the mosques for this. These are steps that required lots of advanced preparation.

This has even gone on at an accelerated pace after he won his recent Presidential "bogus" snap election 

Ruling in an ever more totalitarian fashion, Erdogan has taken control over all public institutions – the media and the schools, the courts and the police, the civil bureaucracy and the armed forces.

At least 50,000 people have been arrested and 150,000 purged. His Islamist party, AKP, has used these methods to consolidate control in practically all of the structures of Turkish life.

Previously, Gülen was Erdogan´s most important domestic ally. He led the Islamist religious movement, while Erdogan led the Islamist political party.

Very much with the support of Erdogan’s party, Gülen had built up a state within the state. But then Erdogan decided that, to consolidate his power, the imprint that Gülen left on public life in Turkey needed to be removed completely.

Let´s also remember that the real reason for the fallout between the two was that Gülen´s forces, strongly represented in the body of public prosecutors, were closing in on the massive acts of corruption that Erdogan and his immediate family systematically organized.

It was also only logical that Erdogan demanded the extradition of Gülen and Gülenists from the US, because he is familiar with all of Erdogan's plans and corrupt swindles that have bled the country dry.

Not that the Gülenists are anything but squeaky clean. But Germany, Britain, the United States and many others have all found that Erdogan had produced no convincing evidence to justify his extradition demands.

They want no part of Erdogan´s witch hunt, to the contrary. He is considered vindictive and untrustworthy.

Erdogan responded to this refusal with demagogic attacks on Western countries. Even calling some European countries Nazis, when they were not wiling to have his "disciples" speak to Turkish immigrants in Europe, during his "bogus" referendum campaign, on a new Turkish Constitution.

The EU must definitely not cozy up to the Erdogan regime, just because of Donald Trump's tirades against him, who has been trying to get his Evangelical Pastor back to the US, so he can win the Mid-Term US election.

It has nothing to do about Trump in this particular case, but all about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Trump and Erdogan might have similar characters, but their issues with the EU are different

Europe must start calling a spade a spade - and make the long term survival extremely difficult for Erdogan, who is not only a ruthless dictator who can not be trusted, but also a danger to the European Union's democracy and security.

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