The Netherlands: Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

 In this blog written for IMF Country Focus, the IMF’s mission  brief for the Netherlands, Alfredo Cuevas, explains that this economic integration could signal a slower recovery for the country from the crisis.

The GDP growth forecasts for the Netherlands issued by the IMF in its April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) surprised many, not only for the large negative 2020 number itself, but for it being weaker than some other leading European economies. Let me make some general considerations about orecasting amid today’s immense uncertainties, and then look at the Dutch
economy.

Economists often conceptualize macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, as the sum of a predictable or systematic component and an unpredictable shock. We develop and estimate statistical models of the predictable part and use them to make forecasts.

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Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

Trump - Tariffs: European Union releases 10-page list of potential targets for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products - by David J. Lynch and Michael Birnbaum

The list offered the most detailed glimpse to date of the likely targets for E.U. action, including products selected for maximum political impact in the United States. Among them: bourbon, a specialty of Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state; cranberries, which are grown in House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s native Wisconsin; orange juice from Florida; and tobacco from North Carolina.

 “It’s pretty clear they’re trying to wake up American legislators, who are the only ones in government who can influence the president on this issue,” said Chad Bown, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Still, the European Union said its response to Trump’s tariffs is designed to conform with World Trade Organization

Note EU-Digest: it is high time the EU stops playing footsie with the US and takes their gloves off. There are much tougher ways to deal with the US when it comes to convincing their ego-maniac President

Trump better take note that the adjusted GDP of the 28 EU member nations  is bigger than both China and the US, based on the traditional list of world's economic super powers.

The EU can do a lot of harm to the US economy if Donald Trump continues on this destructive route
  
Read : moreEuropean Union releases 10-page list of potential targets for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products - The Washington Post

EU Economy: Every one of the EU's 28 member economies is growing simultaneously for the first time since 2007

Quartz reports that the European Union is facing its biggest crisis since… well, since its last big crisis. The perpetually problematic union is threatening to come undone, with Britain in the process of quitting the bloc and numerous populist movements elsewhere also threatening to sever ties.

But economically speaking, the bloc is performing better than it has in a long while. For the first time since 2007, all 28 of the union’s member economies are growing at the same time, on an annual basis.

Inflation-adjusted GDP in the EU will rise 1.8% this year and next, according to the European Commission’s latest projections. This is expected to push unemployment across the region to its lowest rate since 2009. For its part, GDP in the euro zone has risen for 15 consecutive quarters.

This is not to say that Europe’s economy is thriving, which is readily apparent by how successfully populist politicians have been blaming Brussels for their countries’ apparent financial malaise.

The European Commission warns that the risks to its forecasts are “exceptionally large,” thanks to the unclear intentions of US president Donald Trump, high-stakes elections across Europe this year, and the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

If Trump follows through on pledges to spend big on infrastructure, it could provide a boost to the EU’s export-oriented members. But if he doubles down on his “America First” policy, it could harm transatlantic trade. Meanwhile, a messy Brexit, tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, and a shaky Chinese economy could all derail the European economy’s slow but steady recovery.

Pierre Moscovici, the European commissioner for economic and financial affairs, warned that the benefits of growth must be shared more widely—both between and within EU countries—for it to be appreciated by citizens. “With uncertainty at such high levels, it’s more important than ever that we use all policy tools to support growth,” he said. “Above all, we must ensure that its benefits are felt in all parts of the euro area and all segments of society.”

EU-Digest

EU economy is bigger than the US - by Bob Bryan

As a single country, the US is the biggest economy in the world.

But given its close ties, you could easily argue that the countries of the European Union make for one big economy. Indeed, you would be arguing that it's the world's largest economy.

The adjusted GDP of the 28 EU member nations is bigger than both China and the US, the traditional list of world's economic super powers.

"In nominal U.S. dollar terms, the European Union (plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland) accounted for 25.4% of world output in 2014 according to data from the International Monetary Fund.  That was greater than America’s share (22.5%) and well in excess of China’s—13.4%," said Quinlan.

The EU consumer is also on top. The EU, plus periphery nations, accounted for 28.5% of all consumer spending in 2014, according to Quinlan, above both the 26.6% spent by US consumers and the 15.6% spent by the emerging economies of the Brazil, Russia, India and China combined. This attracts global companies to the region.

"Gaining access to wealthy consumers is among the primary reasons that US companies venture overseas, and hence the continued attraction of Europe to US firms," wrote Quinlan.

So while Greece has little direct impact on the US, stabilizing the massive EU economy should still be a huge concern for Americans and the rest of the world.

Read more: CHARTS: EU economy is bigger than the US - Business Insid

Global GNP: Holland outside the EU would be reduced to the same level of global importance as Florida

Netherlands equal to state of Florida

How does the U.S. economy measure up to the rest of the world? You could find out by poring over a table of GDP figures, or you could get a snap perspective from this map, which renames every U.S. state according to a country with a matching GDP.

One million Rhode Islanders have as much wealth as 15 million Guatemalans. Texas has an economy the size of Australia’s. And New York has met its match, Mexico.

The map from economist Mark J. Perry at the American Enterprise Institute puts America’s $16 trillion GDP in perspective. “The map and these statistics help remind us of the enormity of the economic powerhouse we live in,” Perry writes, at least to the 4% of the world’s population that lives there.

The Netherlands economy (GDP) is approximately the same as that of the state Florida in the USA with a similar number of inhabitants (17 million people) . 

This report underscore the fact that if the EU would break up - as most of the Eurosceptics would like to see happen -  individual EU member-states would not be able to play any significant role on the global scene in relation to international trade, economics, finances, jurisdiction or military matters. 

In other words a united Europe can be a master of its own fate but divided it will fall.

Read more: GDP Map of U.S. States Compared to World | TIME.com