Coronavirus: US life expectancy falls by a year amid pandemic

Life expectancy in the US fell by a full year in the first half of 2020, a change experts say was fuelled by the growing coronavirus pandemic.

The life expectancy for the entire population dropped to 77.8 years, according to a report by the Centers for Disease Control.

"This is a huge decline," Dr Robert Anderson, the CDC's Chief of Mortality Statistics, told the Associated Press.

Read more at: Coronavirus: US life expectancy falls by a year amid pandemic - BBC News

The Netherlands: Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

 In this blog written for IMF Country Focus, the IMF’s mission  brief for the Netherlands, Alfredo Cuevas, explains that this economic integration could signal a slower recovery for the country from the crisis.

The GDP growth forecasts for the Netherlands issued by the IMF in its April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) surprised many, not only for the large negative 2020 number itself, but for it being weaker than some other leading European economies. Let me make some general considerations about orecasting amid today’s immense uncertainties, and then look at the Dutch
economy.

Economists often conceptualize macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, as the sum of a predictable or systematic component and an unpredictable shock. We develop and estimate statistical models of the predictable part and use them to make forecasts.

Read more at: 
Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast

USA: Tourists Beware - US Still Cowboy Country: Mass shootings past 24 hrs kill 30 people in Texas and Ohio

Tourism USA - Still No Gun Control ?

This year alone, there have been at least 32 fatal shootings in America,

Mass shootings in El Paso Texas, and Dayton Ohio. If I was a tourist deciding if I would go on vacation to America, and heard that 29 people were killed within 24 hrs today, in addition to the non-stop gun violence all around the country, and knowing the US has no real gun control laws which work, I would certainly think twice, before I would go to the US on vacation.

Statistics are also showing that the U.S. tourismvhas suffered heavily since 2016. Now it looks like the evidence is finally here.

The bigger picture shows the U.S.is specially  losing ground on the global stage. Arrivals to Europe and Asia-Pacific both increased by 6 percent, while the Middle East saw a 10 percent uptick in 2018. It seems that global travelers are looking elsewhere for their vacations.

“International travel markets posted disparate performance in 2018 including several notable surprises on the downside,” states the report from Tourism Economics.

“After registering average annual growth of 23 percent over the previous decade, Chinese travel to the US stopped in its tracks last year—perhaps in connection to trade tensions. Similarly, South Korea fell 3 percent after averaging 11 percent growth over the prior ten years. Japan also contracted; this continues the narrative of an ever important but languishing market. And Germany surprised with a steep decline in 2018, perhaps evidence of a reaction to unpopular U.S. diplomacy and policies.”

Among some of the major reasons foreign tourists are giving for not choosing the US as their tourist destination  are: inadequate Public Transportation Systens, personal safety, as a result of gun violence and poor infrastructure.

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EU: Asylum applications in the EU drop significantly according to EASO - by Irene Kostaki

A significant drop in the number of asylum applications in the EU has been seen by the European Asylum Support Office (EASO), according to its annual report, published on June 18.

According to the data published, migratory pressure decreased for the second year in a row throughout 2017 on the eastern and central Mediterranean migration routes. An unprecedented upsurge, however, was seen on the western Mediterranean route. The EU’s asylum office counted 728,470 applications for international protection in 2017, a 44% drop from the 1.3 million applications in 2016.

While the overall number of asylum applications registered in 2017 dropped, some countries still noted considerable increases. Syria (15%), Iraq (7%) and Afghanistan (7%) remained the top three countries of origin of applicants in the EU. These were followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Eritrea, Albania, Bangladesh, Guinea, and Iran. Syrian asylum seekers numbered 108,020 in 2017, a 68.4% decrease since 2016.

The latest figures for the first four months of 2018 highlight a further drop in the number of applications submitted, as between January and April saw approximately 197,000 individuals seeking international protection in the EU. The number was a far a lower number than in the same period in 2015, but higher than the pre-crisis levels of 2014.

The decrease in the number of applications lodged in the EU was distributed across most citizenships of origin to different extents, but with some noteworthy exceptions. In particular, nationals of Venezuela and Georgia have been increasingly applying for asylum in far higher numbers since 2017, increasing by 75 % and 133 %, respectively. The number of Georgian applicants has skyrocketed since the small post-Soviet state was given a visa-free travel regime with the Schengen Zone in 2017.

Read more: Asylum applications in the EU drop significantly according to EASO

The Netherlands: Geert Wilders PVV drops 6 percentage points in latest election popularity political poll

The ruling VVD would be the biggest party in parliament if there was a general election tomorrow, according to a new poll from Kantar TNS, formerlly TNS Nipo.

The poll gives the right-wing Liberals 27 seats in the 150 seat parliament, or 18% of the vote. Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam PVV, which was on target to win 29 seats in the September poll, has now slumped to 23.

In June, Nipo put support for the PVV as high as 36 seats, or 24% support. The middle ground is still held by the Liberal Democrats (D66), Socialists and Christian Democrats on 18 and 16 seats respectively.

Wilders who has alligned himself closely with Donald Trump, and even went to the Republican convention to openly endorse him can expect even more backlash from that decision if Trump looses in November

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Eurozone surprises with fall in unemployment

A sharp decline in Italy has helped the Eurozone’s unemployment figures fall to their lowest level in more than three years.

The unexpected fall surprised analysts. It now stands at 10.9%, and for the entire 28-member EU unemployment is at 9.5%, the lowest since June 2011.

Eurozone unemployment had been stubbornly stuck at over 11% for the last three months, but the picture remains uneven. Although youth unemployment at last showed signs of dropping after years of posting above-average figures, in some countries the young unemployed see little change.

For example, Europe’s unemployment leaders, Germany at 4.7% and Malta and the Czech Republic, with 5.1%, have found jobs for nearly all their school leavers, but in Greece and Spain, with 25% and 22% unemployment respectively, the drain of young workers abroad continues as their economies offer nothing for them.

Within the Eurozone only three members saw their unemployment rise in July; Finland, Lithuania, and France.

Read more: Eurozone surprises with fall in unemployment | euronews, economy

Global Oil Production: Double Dip seems to have started as prices drop

Oil Exploration

OILPrice Intelligence reports that the double dip looks to be on. After nearly two months of moderate price gains for crude oil, by mid-March oil is swooning once again. Brent is showing a bit of resilience, but the WTI benchmark – which is the major marker for North American crude – dropped to its lowest level in six years. Producers may have thought they were nearly out of the woods, but stubborn levels of production from U.S. shale fields have prevented a rally. Even worse (for drillers) is the fact that oil storage tanks are starting to fill up. Storage at Cushing, Oklahoma is two-thirds full, and hedge funds and major investors are selling off oil contracts, betting that prices are heading south.

While the oil storage story is real – average storage levels nationwide (USA) are up to 60%, a big jump from the 48% seen a year ago – it may have been played up too much in the media. Many refineries are taken offline in the spring for maintenance, which forces drillers to pump crude into storage for several weeks. Additionally, U.S. consumers are starting to use more gasoline because of low prices, and the extra demand may soak up some of the glut. Finally, production, stubborn as it is, may soon finally begin to dip. Fresh data from North Dakota shows that may already be happening. In other words, the weekly storage build may be unsustainably high.

Nevertheless, the selloff is underway. That is providing an interesting opportunity for the U.S. government, which is set to purchase 5 million barrels for the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). In March 2014, the U.S. government sold off 5 million barrels ostensibly for a “test sale,” but was no doubt at least in part motivated by the fact that oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel. However, by law, the U.S. Department of Energy is required to replenish that sale within 12 months. With the deadline approaching, the DOE has announced plans to buy up 5 million barrels to put back into the SPR. The U.S. taxpayer is about to benefit from extraordinary timing. With prices now half of what they were 12 months ago, the government will be able to bring the SPR back to up to its proper level at half the price.

Low oil prices are good for the government, but not so good for the oil majors. Italian oil giant Eni (NYSE: ENI) became the first of the oil multinationals to slash its dividend due to low prices and also moved to suspend its share buy-back plan. Eni announced plans to pay 0.8 euros per share rather than the 1.12 euros it paid out in 2014. The move was not taken well by investors – the company’s stock tanked by nearly 5% on the announcement. Still, CEO Claudio Descalzi put on a brave face, claiming that he was “building a more robust Eni capable of facing a period of lower oil prices.” The dividend has long been prioritized by the oil majors, needing to be protected at all costs. Many of them have opted for dramatic cuts to capital spending rather than touch their dividend policies, even if that threatens future production rates. High dividends have made major oil companies highly attractive investment vehicles, allowing companies to obtain a lower cost of capital for drilling plans. Eni has bucked the trend, arguing that it will be more resilient as a result of the dividend cut. Descalzi insists the company will “be strong” if prices remain at $60 per barrel or above. It remains to be seen how long oil prices stay depressed, and whether or not other oil majors can avoid coming to the same conclusion as Eni.

OPEC released its monthly oil market report on March 16, in which it argued that North American shale will face a contraction later this year. However, the oil cartel also saw some production declines for the month, as Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria continue to struggle with violence and low oil prices. Libya, in particular, is facing a crisis. Spain raised the prospect of a European Union embargo on Libyan oil if the country’s two political factions did not make headway on peace. Cutting off Libya’s only economic lifeline almost certainly would not bring a swift end to political impasse in Libya, but the EU is clearly becoming impatient with the ongoing violence just across the Mediterranean.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reemerged from a 10-day absence that fueled many-a-rumor – speculation ranged from a palace coup, to a secret birth of a child, even to some wondering whether the Russian President met an early demise. The Kremlin offered no explanation, but Putin appeared to be just fine. Despite his seemingly good health, the Russian economy continues to buckle under the weight of low oil prices. And that, according to Bloomberg, has Putin increasingly angry at a once close ally: Rosneft head Igor Sechin. Putin is reportedly blaming Sechin for rising debt at the state-owned oil firm, perhaps stemming from the purchase of TNK-BP in 2013. Also, Sechin’s role in borrowing billions of rubles that sent the currency plummeting in December 2014 has raised the ire of the Russian President. There are rumors that Sechin could be on his way out, but those reports are unconfirmed. Nevertheless, the fraying of the relationship suggests low oil prices are taking a toll on Putin’s inner circle.

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