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August 18, 2019

Climate Change: No, Climate Change Will Not End the World in 12 Years - by Sheril Kirshenbaum

Climate scientists, biologists, engineers and others with expertise have been speaking and writing about our changing planet for a long time. My own work has focused on how we'll figure out a way to come to terms with billions more people, limited resources and more extreme extremes. Droughts will be worse. Floods more severe. Storms increasingly intense.

I've often felt like a modern Cassandra, writing and speaking about the dramatic and unprecedented planetary shifts taking place due to short-sighted policy choices. Deforestation, the burning of fossil fuels, and the ways we use water and produce food inevitably do take a toll on the environment, our health and security. As a marine scientist, I observed firsthand how the pH of oceans has been changing along urban coasts in a process called acidification due to excess emissions.

The evidence of climate change has been all around us for a long time. Protecting people and Earth's co-inhabitants from its most devastating impacts will require institutional reckoning and action.

Doomsday scenarios may generate clicks and sell advertisements, but they always fail to convey that science is nuanced. Arbitrary "time left to apocalypse" predictions are not evidence based and the story of climate change doesn't fit neatly into brief bullet points competing for your attention in today's saturated media environment. Stoking panic and fear offers a false narrative that can overwhelm readers, leading to inaction and hopelessness.

When I worked on Capitol Hill 13 years ago, I faced a cacophony of staffers and lawmakers choosing inaction on the assumption that climate change wasn't real. Today many of the same people point to the dire predictions dominating the news and shrug off better policies with the excuse that the world is ending anyway.

If history teaches us anything, it's that humans have a penchant for anticipating our End Times. Ancient mythologies from cultures all around the world describe catastrophic floods and religious cults continue to recruit followers with predictions of death by comet or solar flare.

Earth isn't ending in 12 years. It didn't end at Y2K or when the Mayan calendar predicted the collapse of civilization in 2012.

Earth, as a whole, will be okay—for at least another few billion years. What's less settled is how humans and the rest of biodiversity on the planet will fare in the decades and centuries to come. That's up to us and I hope we work to highlight hope over Armageddon.

The world will end one day, but not today. And not tomorrow. And not in 2030. Earth will continue to change, but we're not necessarily doomed. Yet.

Read more at: No, Climate Change Will Not End the World in 12 Years - Scientific American Blog Network

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August 17, 2019

EU-US Relations: Trump Seems to Hate the EU. Is It Because He Already Had a George W. Bush Florida Orange Juice Moment? by Ivan Dikov

Trump and his administration have been especially hateful of the EU with respect to Brexit, and their impudent encouragement of the UK to leave the Union, and on top of that to even do so without a Brexit deal, the so called hard or no-deal Brexit.

The latest of the Trump Administration’s EU bashing came this week from Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton who advertised a no-deal Brexit with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the British public with the prospects of a fast US-UK trade deal.

Bolton, however, also shyly admitted that such a deal wouldn’t probably take the form of a comprehensive all-out agreement but would likely be negotiated “in pieces” and stages.

Critics have reacted that to get even that, the UK would have to give the Trump Administration a lot of concessions and backing on all sorts of top-level global political issues.

Diplomatic tone and manners aside, it has got to be pointed out categorically that downgrading, diminishing, or even destroying the EU does not make sense from the point of view of America’s best interests. This is so self-explanatory that there is no need go into much detail here. It suffices to remind everybody that the West rests on two pillars – North America and (Western) Europe – the USA and the EU, respectively. And if one of those two pillars sabotages or undermines the other, that could lead to the collapse of the entire structure.

The fact that Brexit could actually prove a blessing, rather than a curse to the EU but effectively removing the countless British vetoes to the deepening and widening of EU integration is a whole other story.

Trump first seriously raised eyebrows on the other side of the Atlantic with his campaign speeches, and his first post-inauguration interview in January 2017, in which he openly bashed the European Union.

Read more: Trump Seems to Hate the EU. Is It Because He Already Had a George W. Bush Florida Orange Juice Moment?

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August 16, 2019

Brexit: EU plans in place to mitigate impact of no deal

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the effects will be felt by people and companies across Europe. The EU has adopted measures to mitigate the impact of a disorderly withdrawal.

The EU has repeatedly stressed that it favours an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the Union. It concluded a withdrawal agreement with the UK to ensure the two parties can continue to collaborate on various issues to their mutual benefit, nevertheless the EU has adopted measures to reduce the impact of a possible no-deal Brexit.

These measures cannot replicate the advantages of being part of the EU. They are temporary, unilateral measures. Some will require UK’s reciprocity in order for them to come in force.

Long-term solutions depend on future discussions between the EU and the UK.

See below for the measures preparing the EU for a no-deal Brexit:

Visas

Brits will be able to enter the EU without a visa for short periods provided the same applies to people from the EU traveling to the UK.

Aviation

UK airlines would be able to provide services to EU countries provided EU companies are also able to do so to the UK.

Rail services

The validity of rail safety authorisations would be extended to ensure the continuity of rail services between the UK and the EU, provided the UK does the same.

Road transport

Freight transport and bus and coach operators from the UK would be able to provide services between Britain and the EU, provided the UK provides equivalent access to EU companies.

Social security

EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU would keep social security benefits acquired before the withdrawal.

Erasmus+

Students and teachers in or from the UK would be able to complete their ongoing learning abroad as part of the Erasmus+ programme.

Peace process in Northern Ireland

Funding for bilateral peace programmes in Northern Ireland would continue until at least 2020 to help support the peace and reconciliation process started by the Good Friday agreement.

Fishing

If the UK agrees to full reciprocity of access to fishing waters, an easy procedure is in place for companies to obtain authorisation to fish. Quota swapping would still be allowed until these measures end on 31 December.

If the UK does not agree, EU firms banned from UK waters could be eligible for compensation from the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund.

Defence

EU firms will still be able to export certain items used for civilian and military purposes to the UK.

Driving licences

Driving licences issued by one EU country are automatically recognised by other member states. When the UK leaves, this will no longer apply to British licences. EU nationals wishing to drive in the UK will need to check with UK authorities if their licence is valid, while Brits will need to check with the national authorities of each EU country in which they wish to drive. International driving licences are valid across the UK and EU.

Pets

The EU pet passport, which allows your pet to travel with you to another EU country, will no longer be valid in the UK. It is likely more paperwork will be needed when taking your pet to or from the UK.

Medical treatment

Under EU rules people benefit from access to healthcare during a temporary stay in another member states using the European Health Insurance Card (EHIC). These rules will no longer apply to the UK. Both EU nationals travelling to the UK and Brits visiting EU countries should check whether their insurance covers the costs of medical treatment abroad. If not, they should consider taking out private travel insurance.

For additional information about traveling to and from the UK, check out the website from the EU Commission

All of these measures can only come into effect with European Parliament’s approval.

Any agreement reached by the EU and UK - including the withdrawal agreement and any agreement on future relations - must be agreed by the Parliament before it can enter into force.

Next steps

None of these temporary measures can replace actual agreements. Only once the UK has left the EU, the EU and the UK, as a third country, can look at the future relations and might wish to conclude deals to ensure they can continue to work together on issues ranging from trade to security, migration and defence. The political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement, if ratified by the UK, gives the general framework on how these relations could look like. 

Find out more 
European Commission implements “no-deal” contingency action plan in specific sectors (19 December 2018)

Read more at: Brexit: plans in place to mitigate impact of no deal | News | European Parliament

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August 12, 2019

Brexit?: UK MPs' maths means election, not no-deal Brexit - by Tobias Gras

Having lost the by-election in the previously-safe Conservative Welsh seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, the Remain coalition of Liberal Democrats, Greens and the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru has demonstrated that Conservative seats – even in Leave-leaning constituencies – can be won, as the 'Boris bounce' fails to annihilate the Brexit Party, and the weakness of the Labour party fuels a Liberal surge.

With a majority of just one in the House of Commons, it takes only two Tory defectors to carry a motion of no confidence in Boris Johnson.

This will happen, and the prime minister knows it.

So when actively preparing for a hard Brexit on October 31st, Johnson is right to say it is less likely to happen.

Not – as he claims – since the EU will budge, but because two or more heroes or traitors, depending on one's point of view, will defect and bring down his government to prevent no-deal Brexit from happening.

The interesting question is what happens next?

In any case, a hard Halloween Brexit on October 31st seems increasingly unlikely. 

Read more at: UK MPs' maths means election, not no-deal Brexit

 
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August 5, 2019

Climate Change: The animals that will survive climate change - by Christine Ro

“I don’t think it will be the humans. I think we’ll go quite early on,” says Julie Gray with a laugh. I’ve just asked Gray, a plant molecular biologist at the University of Sheffield, which species she thinks would be the last ones standing if we don’t take transformative action on climate change.

 Even with our extraordinary capacity for innovation and adaptability, humans, it turns out, probably won’t be among the survivors.

This is partly because humans reproduce agonisingly slowly and generally just one or two at a time – as do some other favourite animals, like pandas. Organisms that can produce many offspring quickly may have a better shot at avoiding extinction.

It may seem like just a thought experiment. But discussing which species are more, or less, able to survive climate change is disturbingly concrete.

As a blockbuster biodiversity report stated recently, one in every four species currently faces extinction. Much of this vulnerability is linked to climate change, which is bringing about higher temperatures, sea level rise, more variable conditions and more extreme weather, among other impacts.

Read more at: BBC - Future - The animals that will survive climate change

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