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Will Thierry Baudet, Far-Right Populist eventually survive? |
Dutch voters delivered a shock in last week’s provincial elections,
which also determined the makeup of the upper house of parliament.
The
outcome deprived Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s governing coalition of a
majority in the Senate, giving the largest share of seats to a
relatively new far-right party led by an ostentatious
pseudo-intellectual, Thierry Baudet.
The victory by Baudet’s
Forum for Democracy party, or FvD, however, is not proof that the
Netherlands has taken a sharp rightward turn. The parliament is highly
fragmented, and the political landscape is in flux, but the Netherlands
remains a nation characterized by compromise. The question going forward
is whether Baudet will manage to persuade more Dutch voters to follow
him to the right, or whether his new celebrity status will make them
look more closely at his views and turn away after discovering they do
not share them.
After his party jumped from just two seats to 13, Baudet
declared in his victory speech, “We stand here in the rubble of what was once the most beautiful civilization,”
adding,
“Minerva’s owl spreads its wings at dusk.” An allusion to imagery used
by the German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, the term
promptly started trending on social media in the Netherlands. To some,
it was another preposterous display by the 36-year-old former academic,
who
has accused
the government led by Rutte’s center-right Freedom and Democracy party,
or VVD, of allowing “people with cultures completely different from
ours” to enter the country. To others, it was a sign of a renewed
nationalist push in a struggling European Union.
To be sure, Baudet scored an impressive victory. But a significant
portion of his support came from former backers of another populist
figure, Geert Wilders, who saw his Party for Freedom drop from nine to
five seats in the upper house.
Rutte’s VVD lost just one seat,
for a second-place finish, but his four-party coalition, which had only a
thin majority in the Senate, lost seven. The other big winner was the
Green Left party, which jumped from four to nine seats. Rutte retains a
majority in the lower house and, with it, the prime minister’s office.
But it is clear that Dutch politics is changing and becoming far more
fragmented. The new upper house will comprise a record number of
political parties, diminishing the power of the traditional political
formations.
Baudet’s support was notably weak in some major
cities, which remain bastions of the tolerance for which the Dutch are
known. In Amsterdam, Baudet’s FvD finished in
an embarrassing sixth place, behind the animal rights formation, Party for the Animals. The Green Left remains the largest there.
One
reason for Baudet’s surprise win was the way he brazenly leveraged a
deadly attack in the city of Utrecht two days before the elections. The
attack by a Turkish-born man who killed three people is being
investigated by police as a possible act of terrorism. Other parties
suspended campaigning, but Baudet saw an opportunity to make his case.
Without conclusive information on the motive for the shootings, Baudet
immediately blamed the government’s immigration policies. His FvD did
not fare well in Utrecht, interestingly, but it finished first in
Rotterdam, a city with a large Muslim population.
Read more at: Will the Netherlands’ Rising Far-Right Star Survive the Scrutiny