EU -Turkey-Russian Energy Cooperation: "Politics can make strange bedfellows" - Russia’s Gas Strategy Gets Help From Turkey - by Marc Pierini

Politics/Energy can make strange bedfellows

It was November 19 in Istanbul. There, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held a ceremony marking the completion of the first underwater segment of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, linking Russia to Turkey’s European shores. The project is a vivid illustration of Moscow’s strategy to strengthen its position in supplying gas to Europe while reducing its reliance on the Ukrainian transit corridor.

For Ankara, the project is a symbol of Turkey’s independent decisionmaking and of the country’s significance in the wider region. Seen from Ankara, Turkish Stream serves a political purpose. It celebrates the blossoming friendship between Turkey and Russia and confirms Ankara’s ambition to be part of the solution to major international issues—in this case, securing the gas needs for a large part of the EU. 

However, Turkish Stream will also increase Ankara’s dependence on Moscow for its energy needs.

The project’s second meaning is that Turkey is contributing to an essential element of Russia’s multi-pronged, long-term strategy of remaining Europe’s major gas supplier, while creating a “third gas corridor” in addition to the Ukrainian and Baltic Sea supply routes. This strategy is unfolding on several fronts: in Ukraine; in the Baltic Sea; and through future extensions of Turkish Stream to southern and central Europe (toward Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, and to Greece and Italy.)  

This Russian strategy has raised continuous opposition from the United States.

It is also worth noting that Turkish Stream is not part of the EU’s Energy Union plans since it does not contribute to diversification of supplies. In fact, it will rather reinforce Russia’s market  predominance in both Turkey and the EU.

In Ukraine, the multi-pipeline network channeling Russian gas to Western Europe will remain a vital link. But reducing its use could inflict massive losses in terms of transit costs for authorities in Kiev, which is part of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine.

Much will depend on negotiations for the extension of the Russia-Ukraine commercial agreement, which will end in 2019. To help alleviate Kiev’s concerns, Germany has made the continuation of transit via Ukraine an ingredient of a final agreement on Nord Stream 2, the latter being the subject of controversies within the EU.

The Russian strategy is in no way limited to selling Russian gas on the European continent. It extends much further afield in the wider Eastern Mediterranean region.

Egypt is a case in point.

Following the massive discoveries in the so-called Zohr field to the north and east of the Nile River delta, Russia bought a 30 percent stake from the Italian energy group ENI in 2016 with the consent of the Italian government, which Moscow has had a long and close relationship with. The official reason for the sale was the need for ENI to spread the risk of its Egyptian operation.

Similarly, offshore gas discoveries in Lebanese waters have attracted Russian interest— although drilling off Lebanon is largely dominated by France’s TOTAL and Italy’s ENI, who have a 40 percent share each. Russia’s NOVATEK has bought a 20 percent stake.

Russia has also made moves to control both the oil and gas sector in Syria, despite the ongoing war. The actual effect of these recent maneuvers will very much depend on the final political arrangement expected to end the almost eight-year-old civil war. Many of Syria’s oil and gas fields are located north and east of the Euphrates River, currently outside the control of regime forces. In addition, for reasons linked to the ongoing naval military activities, no offshore exploration has yet taken place in Syrian waters.

In Iraq, Russia is involved in pipeline deals in the Kurdistan region through a number of oil and gas companies, although the actual exports would have to take place through Turkish territory or possibly even through Syria in the distant future.

Such an ambitious Russia strategy is justified by Europe’s gas market fundamentals.

A stronger demand for gas in Europe is good for Russia. According to Oxford Energy, gas demand in Europe (Turkey and non-EU Eastern Europe included, except Serbia) has started rising again for three consecutive years—in 2015, 2016, and 2017—to reach a level of 548 billion cubic meters (bcm), due to continued economic recovery, the impacts of climate change, and the increased use of gas by the power sector. The trend seems to be continuing in 2018.

According to the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, Russia took advantage of several factors: economic recovery and decreasing gas production in the EU, lower Russian selling prices, and the current limited availability of non-Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the European market.

In addition, preexisting disputes between the EU and Russia (including an antitrust investigation against Gazprom, and a Russian complaint at the WTO) have been resolved, signaling that commercial interests on both sides have prevailed, despite a less-than-optimal political climate.

In such an environment, Russia is in a strong position to keep dominating gas supplies to the EU,

which amounted to 40 percent of extra-EU imports in 2016—although new developments could upset the current situation, such as a rapid development of LNG exports to Europe from other sources.

LNG imports amounted to only 14 percent of total extra-EU gas imports in 2017, with the main supplies coming from Qatar (41 percent), Nigeria (19 percent), and Algeria (17 percent).

In this wider context, and seen from Brussels, Turkish Stream—with a final projected capacity to deliver 31.5 bcm/y, of which 15.75 bcm/y would go to Europe —is a relatively small component of the wider gas supply chain to the EU. In fact, it would represent just over 6 percent of the EU’s imports at 2017 levels.

Yet, seen from Moscow, the pipeline is potentially a significant addition to Russia’s capabilities to export gas to Europe (Turkey included). Assuming that Turkish Stream’s second phase will be completed and operational, it would represent between 16 and 19 percent of Russian sales to the EU and Turkey (at 2017 levels and all other factors remaining unchanged).

In that sense, the ceremony on November 19 in Istanbul was more than just another photo opportunity. It was a symbol of the success of Russia’s objectives in the wider Western European area, with Turkey’s help. 

Together with Russia’s S-400 missile deal with Turkey, it was a symbol of how efficiently Moscow has been using Ankara’s relative diplomatic isolation to its advantage. For Ankara, this was another way of telling the world: Turkey matters.

Read more: Russia’s Gas Strategy Gets Help From Turkey - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Middle East: Egypt strikes Libya after deadly bus attack against Coptic Christians

Egypt's president says his air force struck bases in Libya where militants who waged a deadly attack against Christians have been trained, but gave no details.

Senior officials said that the bases are in eastern Libya. They said the warplanes on Friday targeted the headquarters of the Shura Council in the city of Darna, where local militias are known to be linked to al-Qaeda.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi says Egypt will strike at any bases that train militants who wage attacks in Egypt, wherever they may be. He also directly appealed to U.S. President Donald Trump to take the lead in the fight against global terror.

In a televised address just hours after at least 28 Coptic Christians, including two children, were killed by militants south of Cairo, el-Sissi said "I direct my appeal to President Trump: I trust you, your word and your ability to make fighting global terror your primary task."

He also repeated calls that countries that finance, train or arm extremists be punished.

Read more: Egypt strikes Libya after deadly bus attack against Christians - World - CBC News

Saudi Arabia: Solar phenomena above Islam’s Kaaba expected on first day of Ramadan

The National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics in Egypt has announced that the first day of this year’s Ramadan, which is set to take place on Saturday, will witness something unique: the sun will rise perpendicularly over the Kaaba at 12:18 local Mecca time, during the noon prayer.

The institute added on that at 12:18 on Saturday, the shadow of the Kaaba will disappear, and the direction of the sun at any point in the world will be the exact direction of the Qiblah, the direction where Muslims must pray toward the Kaaba.

The department in charge of researching the Sun’s activities at institute said in a statement on its official Twitter account that the elevation angle of the sun at the time of the Zuhr prayer will be 89.93 degrees above the Kaaba, that is only 0.07 degrees away from being 100% vertical at 90 degrees.

This phenomenon occurs twice a year: the first will be on May 27 and the second on July 15. However, what is special this year is that it coincides with the first noon prayer of Ramadan. 

EU-Digest

Press Freedom Award: International Press Freedom Awards go to journalists from India, El Salvador, Turkey and Egypt

The Committee to Protect Journalists honored journalists from India, El Salvador, Turkey and Egypt on Tuesday with its annual International Press Freedom Awards for their commitment to a free press despite death threats, imprisonment and exile.

CPJ executive director Joel Simon said threats against journalism are increasing around the world, including in the United States following the presidential election victory of Republican Donald Trump, who has branded mainstream media dishonest and who hasn't held a news conference since his election.

 "It's a very intimidating, hostile environment,'' Simon said before the ceremony. "Now, we're not going to compare it to some of the things we're going to see tonight, but certainly the climate's changed and the notion that we're here living in this First Amendment paradise defending the rights of our more vulnerable colleagues around the world, that gap has closed considerably.''

Turkey's Can Dundar, chief editor of the daily Cumhuriyet, was another honoree. He was arrested on November 26, 2015, after publishing an article alleging the government intelligence service sought to send weapons to Syrian rebel groups.

He was charged with disclosing state secrets, espionage and aiding a terrorist group and was sentenced to five years in prison. He remains free, after spending 92 days in jail, while his appeal is considered. His wife however was not allowed to travel outside the country.

Read more: International Press Freedom Award goes to Malini Subramaniam

Christianity: Where is the faith, love, and compassion today, displayed by Christians during the Constantinople plague? - by RM

Constantinople during  the Justinian Plague (541-542)

The Plague of Justinian (541–542) was a pandemic that afflicted the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire, especially its capital Constantinople, the Sassanid Empire, and port cities around the entire Mediterranean Sea.

One of the greatest plagues in history, this devastating pandemic resulted in the deaths of an estimated 25 million (initial outbreak) to 50 million (two centuries of recurrence) people.

The outbreak in Constantinople was thought to have been carried to the city by infected rats on grain ships arriving from Egypt. To feed its citizens, the city and outlying communities imported massive amounts of grain—mostly from Egypt. Grain ships may have been the original source of contagion, as the rat (and flea) population in Egypt thrived on feeding from the large granaries maintained by the government. The Byzantine historian Procopius first reported the epidemic in 541 from the port of Pelusium, near Suez in Egypt.

Two other first-hand reports of the plague's ravages were by the Syriac church historian John of Ephesus and Evagrius Scholasticus, who was a child in Antioch at the time and later became a church historian. Evagrius was afflicted with the buboes associated with the disease but survived. During the disease's four returns in his lifetime, he lost his wife, a daughter and her child, other children, most of his servants, and people from his country estate.[

Remarkable at that time, when Constantinolep was ravaged by the plague, was that instead of fear and despondency, the Christians expended themselves in works of mercy that simply dumbfounded the local pagans and made many convert to Christianity

For the Christians of those days, God loved humanity; and in order to love God back, one was to love others. God did not demand ritual sacrifices; or having "infidels" heads cut off.  Instead he wanted his love expressed on earth in deeds of compassion.

This love took on very practical, concrete forms not only in Constantinople (todays Istanbul), but also in Rome,where  the Christians buried not just their own, but also pagans who had died without funds for a proper burial.

They also supplied food for 1,500 poor on a daily basis. In Antioch in Syria (today in Turkey), the number of destitute persons being fed by the church had reached 3,000. Church funds were even used in special cases to buy the emancipation of Christian slaves.

During the Plague in Alexandria( Egypt) when nearly everyone else fled, the early Christians risked their lives for one another by simple deeds of washing the sick, offering water and food, and consoling the dying. Their care was so extensive that Emporor Julian eventually tried to copy the church’s welfare system. It failed, however, because for the Christians it was love, not duty, that motivated them.

The first Christians not only took care of their own, but also reached out far beyond themselves. Their faith led to a pandemic of love. Consequently, at the risk of their own lives, they saved an immense number of lives. Their elementary nursing greatly reduced mortality. Simple provisions of food and water allowed the sick that were temporarily too weak to cope for themselves to recover instead of perishing miserably.

Pagans could not help but notice that Christians not only found the strength to risk death, but through their care for one another they were much less likely to die. Christian survivors of the plague became immune, and therefore they were able to pass among the afflicted with seeming invulnerability. In fact, those most active in nursing the sick were the very ones who had already contracted the disease very early on but who were also cared for by their brothers and sisters.

In this way, the early Christians became, in the words of one scholar, “a whole force of miracle workers to heal the ‘dying.’” Or as historian Rodney Spark puts it, “It was the soup [the Christians] so patiently spooned to the helpless that healed them.”

In the midst of intermittent persecution and colossal misunderstanding, and in an era when serving others was thought to be demeaning, the “followers of the way,” instead of fleeing disease and death, went about ministering to the sick and helping the poor, the widowed, the crippled, the blind, the orphaned and the aged.

Consequently the  citizens of the Roman Empire started to admire their works and dedication. “Look how they love one another,” was often heard on the streets. In a way it became contagious.

So much seems to have changed from then to now, as to how the Christian Community functions as a part of the society at large, and, unfortunately, this change has not always been for the better. 

All we have to do is look at the refugee crises the EU is facing today and see how self-centered and hypocritical  most "so called"  Christian politicians are responding to this crises.

We can certainly learn from those early Christians. 

EU-Digest

Middle East:: Arab League summit wraps up with plan for pan-Arab force

Arab leaders have agreed to try to form a joint military force to tackle regional crises. Saudi Arabia is already leading a coalition of Arab countries that have been conducting airstrikes against rebels in Yemen.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi (pictured above), who hosted the two-day Arab Summit at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, told the final session of the gathering that the leaders had agreed in principle to form the pan-Arab force. He said a high-level committee would be formed to work out the details of implementing the force.

Other Egyptian officials said it was to include up to 40,000 elite troops backed up by fighter jets and warships. However, it wasn't immediately clear how many of the Arab League's 22 member states were prepared to contribute to the proposed force.

Much of the discussion over the past two days focused on Yemen, which the elected president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, fled late last week, before traveling to Sharm el-Sheikh.

With Shiite Muslim Houthi forces advancing on President Hadi's power base of Aden in the south of the country, Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, along with several other Arab nations, launched a bombing campaign against the rebels four days ago. So far though, there was little evidence that the air campaign had stopped the Houthi advance.

Read more:: Arab League summit wraps up with plan for pan-Arab force | News | DW.DE | 29.03.2015

Turkey: - Egypt: The Slow Slide Toward Dictatorship Taking Place in Egypt and Turkey

Supporters of the governments of Egypt and Turkey have become adept at telling the world that under presidents Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan respectively, these countries are making progress toward more open and just
political systems.

In reality, they are nothing more than tin-pot dictatorships.< Over the weekend, Egyptian authorities detained, questioned, and deported my friend and colleague Michele Dunne as she sought to enter Egypt at the invitation of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.

Michele, who is the most well-respected Egypt analyst in Washington, has not been shy in her criticism of the Egyptian government.

Not to be outdone, yesterday the Turks arrested 27 people including journalists, TV producers, and police commanders on terrorism charges. All of the detainees are either members or suspected members of the Gulen movement.

Fethullah Gulen and his followers were at one time allied with Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, working together, for example, to subordinate the armed forces to civilian leaders, though at the expense of the rule of law and due process.

Note EU-Digest: the economies of both Egypt and Turkey have also taken a hit and are expected decline even more. The number of unemployed has also steadily increased in both countries.

 read more: The Slow Slide Toward Dictatorship Taking Place in Egypt and Turkey - Defense One

Middle East Chaos: Egypt, Libya, Palestine, Syria, Israel - back to square one

Middle East Chaos

It has not been a pretty picture in the Middle East for some time now after the euphoria of the Arab Spring - better still it is a total mess and certainly not a feather on the cap of any EU, Russian or Chinese diplomat, especially not for the cap of the US's Mr.Kerry. 

In Libya when one might have thought the mess there could not have gotten worse, it has. The latest round in the multidimensional chaos that has prevailed since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi was initiated by an ex-general named Khalifa Hiftar, who was trained in the Soviet Union, participated as a junior officer in the coup that brought Gaddafi to power in 1969, later broke with the Libyan dictator, and lived for years in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, where he apparently also became a U.S. citizen.

Hiftar returned to Libya after Gaddafi was ousted. Now he has put together a force he calls the “Libyan National Army” and aims at removing the interim parliament in Tripoli.

So probably also for Libya there is a new dictatorship in the making?

Israel and the Palestinians were back to square one in the peace process last Friday after the Jewish state torpedoed US-sponsored talks in response to a Fatah-Hamas reconciliation deal.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set the tone, telling the BBC that Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas could "have peace with Israel or a pact with Hamas (but) he can't have both".

"As long as I'm prime minister of Israel, I will never negotiate with a Palestinian government that is backed by Hamas terrorists that are calling for our liquidation," he added.

In Syria tyrant Bashar Assad may have to stay temporarily as Syrian president despite the death toll in the country’s civil war heading higher than the number killed in Iraq, Tony Blair said recently.

The former Prime Minister branded the situation in Syria an “unmitigated disaster” and insisted the West should intervene in such conflicts.

“We are now in a position where both Assad staying and the Opposition taking over seem bad options,” he said in a speech at Bloomberg HQ in central London.

“Repugnant though it may seem, the only way forward is to conclude the best agreement possible even if it means in the interim President Assad stays for a period.” 

Egypt : In a statement dripping with cynicism, the White House said that Obama was “deeply troubled” by the recent  mass death sentences in Egypt.

“While judicial independence is a vital part of democracy, this verdict cannot be reconciled with Egypt’s obligations under international human rights law,” the White House statement read. It appealed to Sisi and his fellow military rulers to “take a stand against this illogical action.”

Whom do they think they’re kidding? The niceties of “judicial independence” are hardly an issue in Egypt.

The hanging judge Youssef—popularly known as “the butcher”—was installed in a special court created by the junta to do precisely what he is doing. Moreover, the draconian sentences have a very clear logic: they are an act of state terror designed to intimidate the Egyptian masses.

The statement continued: “Since the January 25 Revolution, the Egyptian people have aspired to be represented by a government that rules justly, respects their dignity, and provides economic opportunities. The United States supports these aspirations and wants Egypt’s transition to succeed.”

It seems hardly a coincidence that these mass death sentence came only days after Washington approved the provision of 10 Apache attack helicopters on top of some $650 million in military aid already approved for the Egyptian junta this fiscal year.

This is half of what the administration wanted to supply to the country’s repressive forces, the other half being held up by laws restricting aid to regimes brought to power through military coups.

Obviously the helicopter deal was correctly interpreted by the Egyptian junta as a green light to escalate its brutal crackdown.

All this disaster unfortunately is only the top of the Iceberg when one looks at the total Middle East picture. Maybe only one word to describe this is: total chaos .

EU-Digest

The Netherlands: Persecuted Egyptian Coptic Christians will not receive special asylum arrangements says Government

The Dutch cabinet headed by PM Mark Rutte sees no reason in the present situation for special asylum arrangements for Coptic Christians from Egypt. “There is no question of an organized religious cleansing there”, says the Dutch Government

Dozens of churches and other properties, however, of Christians in Egypt have been set on fire in the past week. The small Dutch Christian party ChristenUnie wants the cabinet to make more specific efforts on behalf of the Coptic religious minority, for example by designating them a ‘risk group’ as part of asylum policy. They could then be able to obtain temporary asylum in the Netherlands more easily.

But the cabinet is not in favor of this for now, and is also not prepared to relax its visa policy. Every visa application will be considered on its merits, but the visa procedure is not intended for people who want to stay in the Netherlands for longer than 90 days, Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans says in a letter to parliament.

ChristenUnie political party says it is disappointed. “Coptic Christians appear to be outlawed,” according to MP Joël Voordewind.

Timmermans says in his letter that ''individual Egyptians” have used the unrest to commit violent acts against Christians, but that it cannot be established with any certainty that there is organised viiolence by political movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood. The attacks against this Christian minority are “unacceptable,” but “there is no question of an organised religious cleansing. 

A parliamentarian from one of the opposition parties noted: "this is  a strange and obviously politically motivated decision by the Government, who in the past have always opened their arms towards repressed people from around the world, regardless of their race, political viewpoints, or religious belief. 

Christians organizations in the Netherlands have been urged to contact their political representatives and national organizations to lobby for the easing of Dutch asylum regulations, in particular for Coptic Christians and Christians throughout the Middle East, who are suffering from incredible dangerous conditions, including, persecution, torture and killings.

Almere-Digest