EU-US Relations: – Will Trump matter for the EU’s policy priorities?

In Europe, as in much of the rest of the world including large parts of the United States, Donald Trump’s election conjured up a plethora of doomsday scenarios. It was quickly assumed, for example, that the US would pull out of the COP21 Paris Agreement. Bolstering EU defence capabilities was suddenly proclaimed an urgent priority in light of the uncertain continued commitment the new US administration could be expected to show towards NATO. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) was also declared dead and parallels with Brexit were drawn. And finally there were fears that the migration crisis would be exacerbated by Trump’s pledge to block Syrian (Muslim) refugees from entering the US, including from Europe.

Now, two months after Trump’s election, it is time for Europe to recover from its initial state of shock and assess the possible implications of a Trump presidency on EU policy priorities. Trump’s election might have profound effects on the US, and indeed the world, but it is not likely to dramatically alter the EU’s international priorities (and may even, as recently argued by Daniel Gros, have a positive impact on the European Monetary Union). Looking at areas such as trade, climate change, the refugee crisis, Brexit and defence, the fact of the matter is that, at least as things now appear to stand, Trump’s election should have only a marginal impact on the EU’s policy priorities. To demonstrate why, we consider in turn each of these five important policy areas.

TTIP - Climate policy - Refugee crisis - Brexit- Security and defense 

Given the role that the EU plays on the international scene, no US presidential election will leave the EU, and indeed the world, unaffected. However, the fundamental international challenges Europe faces and thus the priorities of the EU in the areas we have analysed predated his election – and are likely to only be marginally influenced by his administration. Many of these challenges, such as climate change, trade, the refugee crisis and security, are likely to remain after his departure. 

For complete details click here: EUROPP – Will Trump matter for the EU’s policy priorities?

Refugee Crises: Ten countries host half of world's refugees

Ten countries - which account for just 2.5 percent of the global economy - are hosting more than half the world's refugees, a rights group has said, accusing wealthy countries of leaving poorer nations to bear the brunt of a worsening crisis.

In a report published on Tuesday, Amnesty International said the unequal share was exacerbating the global refugee problem, as inadequate conditions in the main countries of shelter pushed many to embark on dangerous journeys to Europe and Australia.

The London-based group said 56 percent of the world's 21 million refugees are being hosted by just 10 countries - all in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

Jordan, which has taken in more than 2.7 million people, was named as the top refugee hosting country,  followed by Turkey, over 2.5 million; Pakistan, 1.6 million; and Lebanon, more than 1.5 million.

The other top six nations were Iran, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo and Chad.

Note EU-Digest: hope the EU Eastern European states, Austria and other countries are reading this report and realizing their complaints pale in comparison to the above mentioned countries. 

They should be ashamed and instead take a close look what the cause is for these large numbers  of refugees?   Isn't it also high time for the EU to revise its foreign policy and step back from alliances which have caused all this human horror. 

Read more: Ten countries host half of world's refugees: report - News from Al Jazeera

Religion - Christianity: European churches say growing flock of Muslim refugees are converting

"Chris,t who died for us on the Cross so we could live"

A growing number of Muslim refugees in Europe are converting to Christianity, according to several Church reports in Europe, which have conducted mass baptisms in some places.

Reliable data on conversions is not available but anecdotal evidence suggests a pattern of rising church attendance by Muslims who have fled conflict, repression and economic hardship in countries across the Middle East and central Asia.

Complex factors behind the trend include heartfelt faith in a new religion, gratitude to Christian groups offering support during perilous and frightening journeys, and an expectation that conversion may aid asylum applications.

At Trinity church in the Berlin suburb of Steglitz, the congregation has grown from 150 two years ago to almost 700, swollen by Muslim converts, according to Pastor Gottfried Martens. Earlier this year, churches in Berlin and Hamburg reportedly held mass conversions for asylum seekers at municipal swimming pools.

The Austrian Catholic church logged 300 applications for adult baptism in the first three months of 2016, with the Austrian pastoral institute estimating 70% of those converting are refugees.

At Liverpool’s Anglican Cathedral in the UK, a weekly Persian service attracts between 100 and 140 people. Nearly all are migrants from Iran, Afghanistan and elsewhere in central Asia.

One in four confirmations conducted by the bishop of Bradford, Toby Howarth, over the past year were of converts from Islam. Most were Iranian and most of those were asylum seekers.

Mohammad Eghtedarian, a curate at Liverpool Cathedral and a refugee from Iran who converted to Christianity and was later ordained, said the church was helping people to develop their faith and to apply for refugee status. “These two are intertwined. Most people apply for asylum on the basis of their religion,” he said.

His own journey, from the Iranian city of Shiraz to the UK, took him through half a dozen European countries, by truck, train and on foot. Destitute and terrified, he was offered practical and emotional support from Christians along the way.

Before being granted asylum, Eghtedarian spent four months in Tinsley House detention centre, near Gatwick airport. “Every day was challenging and beautiful. Challenging because I didn’t know if they would deport me; beautiful because I was in the Lord’s hands. I promised the Lord: if you release me, I will serve you.”

Now he devotes himself to helping other refugees. “People are desperate. They spend a lot of money and waste a lot of money. They are vulnerable, abused and sometimes [they have been] raped.” The experience of being a refugee was degrading and dehumanising, he said.

Johannes, another Iranian, left Tehran for Vienna. Born into a Muslim family, the 32-year-old – who was previously called Sadegh – began questioning the roots of Islam at university. “I found that the history of Islam was completely different from what we were taught at school. Maybe, I thought, it was a religion that began with violence?

“A religion that began with violence cannot lead people to freedom and love. Jesus Christ said ‘those who use the sword will die by the sword’. This really changed my mind.”

Johannes began the process of converting to Christianity in Iran. He was ambushed with a group of others leaving a bible class but managed to escape and went into hiding. When the Austrian visa he had already applied for came through, he left the country.

Now waiting for the outcome of his asylum application, he has not told his parents of his conversion: only his sister knows his “secret”.

Authorities say there are about 90,000 Christians in Iran, though some human rights organisations put their number as high as 500,000. While Iranian law does not order the death penalty for converting from Islam to another faith, courts have handed down death sentences based on interpretation of Sharia law and legal opinions issued by religious leaders.

Last year, the Austrian bishops’ conference published new guidelines for priests, warning that some refugees may seek baptism in the hope of improving their chances of obtaining asylum.

“Admitting persons for baptism who are during the official procedure classified as ‘not credible’ leads to a loss in the church’s credibility across the whole of Austria,” the new guidelines say.

Since 2014, applicants interested in converting to Christianity with the Austrian church have to go through a one-year “preparation period” during which they are informally assessed. “There has to be a noticeable interest in the faith that extends beyond merely the wish to obtain a piece of paper,” said Friederike Dostal, who coordinates preparation courses in Vienna’s archdiocese.

“We are not interested in proforma Christians. You have to be able to register some kind of process of change in people.” In 5-10% of cases, she said, applicants broke off their course before they were baptised.

In Liverpool, Eghtedarian acknowledged that the factors leading Muslims to convert were often complex and multilayered. “People are desperate for a better life and sometimes they will lie for it – that’s understandable.”

The church had a difficult road to navigate, he said. “We have a mission to give them the message of Christ – a message of peace, salvation and freedom. The only person who knows what’s in people’s hearts is God. It is not for me to judge.”

At Liverpool Cathedral, there is an established process. People are registered when they first come to church in case evidence of attendance is needed for an asylum application. That may be followed by five sessions of baptism preparation and 12 sessions of confirmation preparation. “This way we get to know them and see how they’re involved in the life of the church,” said Eghtedarian.

If necessary the church will provide a “letter of attendance” for the immigration authorities and support them through the appeals process.

Asked if some people pretended to convert to Christianity in order to help their asylum applications, Eghtedarian said: “Yes, of course. Plenty of people. I do understand there are a lot of mixed motives. There are many people abusing the system – I’m not ashamed of saying that. But is it the person’s fault or the system’s fault? And who are they deceiving? The Home Office, me as a pastor, or God?”

Abuse took many forms, he added. “Don’t people abuse the tax system or the NHS? Look at MPs. And look at people who go to church to get their children into good church schools. Is there any difference, morally? You want to find the best school for your child, we want to find the best life for ourselves.

“We still try our best to serve people. Jesus Christ knew Judas was going to betray him but he still washed his feet. Thank God it is not my job to judge them.”

The Church of England does not collate figures on conversion. “This can be a delicate issue and we want to be sensitive to the backgrounds that people are from,” said Howarth.

“There are many reasons [for conversion] but among them is undoubtedly the mass movement of people and the increasing interconnectedness of the world,” he said. Conversions were happening across different faiths, he added, citing the example of black prisoners converting to Islam. “The world– and people’s identities – are being shaken up.

“When we do confirmations, we work hard to make sure the person is serious. We all have mixed motives. But if someone says ‘I believe this’, who are we to make windows into people’s souls? The only thing I can do is see if people are still there a year later – and often they are.”

Read more: European churches say growing flock of Muslim refugees are converting

Turkey’s Erdogan Clears Path to Dictatorship – by Dr. Alon Ben-Meir

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies filed the following report on Turkey:

"The forced resignation of Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu suggests only one thing — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is totally absorbed by his lust for power, will tolerate no one in his government to deviate from any of his political positions. Prime Minister Davutoglu was no exception.

Although the Turkish constitution grants the Prime Minister executive powers while leaving the role of the president largely ceremonial, this is not what Erdogan had in mind when he asked then-Foreign Minister Davutoglu to form a new government following the last election.

Erdogan’s ambition and aggressive drive to spread his Islamic agenda are what has determined every political move he made. Seeking to constitutionally transfer the executive authority of the country to the Presidency is the final step to legally consolidate his power, albeit he was already exercising such power throughout his tenure as Prime Minister for 11 years.

For more than 15 years, Davutoglu served Erdogan with the utmost loyalty — first as his top foreign policy adviser, then his Foreign Minister, and for the past two years as his hand-picked Prime Minister. Erdogan chose Davutoglu for this post precisely because he expected him to continue to be his “Yes man.”

Being that as Prime Minister, Davutoglu would assume leadership of the AK Party, Erdogan expected him to push for the transformation of the largely ceremonial Presidency into the most powerful executive position in Turkey, which Davutoglu pursued in a lukewarm manner as this would constitutionally diminish his own powers considerably.

Not surprisingly, once Erdogan assumed the Presidency, he continued to chair cabinet meetings and even established a shadow cabinet with a handful of trusted advisers. He pointedly sidelined Davutoglu, who quietly resented Erdogan’s usurpation of the role and responsibility of the prime minister as if nothing had changed.

The premiership became a ceremonial post and the ceremonial presidency became the all-powerful office without a formal constitutional amendment to legally grant him the absolute authority he is now exercising.

I have known Davutoglu from the time he was the chief adviser to Erdogan and I found him to be a man of integrity and vision, always a moderating force, and committed to making Turkey a stabilizing regional power and a significant player on the international scene.

I had many opportunities to talk to Davutoglu face-to-face about Israeli-Turkish relations, as I was actively involved behind the scenes to mitigate their conflict in the wake of the Mavi Marmara incident.

On another occasion, I arranged for Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations to take place with Turkish mediation, not only because of its proximity and (at that time) good relations with both Syria and Israel, but also because I felt that Davutoglu would be the ideal interlocutor.

Moreover, by playing such a role, Davutoglu was also very consistent with his commitment to realize his political philosophy of having “zero problems with neighbors,” which initially led to Turkey’s friendly and cooperative relations with most of its neighbors.

Erdogan’s ambition to become the kingpin of the region through his brazen political approach, however, did nothing but create problems with every neighboring country. A former top Turkish official told me that had

]Davutoglu been given the flexibility to carry out his foreign policy vision, Turkey’s regional standing would be completely different today.

During the past two years, however, several conflicts between the two began to surface. Whereas Davutoglu sought to renew the peace negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the search for a solution, Erdogan not only refused but vowed to wage war until the last PKK rebel is killed. In addition, although Davutoglu said nothing publicly about Erdogan’s systematic attack on the free press, the jailing of journalists, and human rights violations, he disagreed with these unlawful measures and failed in his efforts to quietly persuade his boss to ease the pressure on the press.

Erdogan’s insistence on silencing any criticism and the constant chipping away of what is left of Turkey’s democracy has basically sealed off (contrary to what is being said publicly) any prospect for Turkey to become an European Union member, which Davutoglu sought to realize with zeal.

On top of all that, Erdogan is now seeking to strip Kurdish lawmakers of their political immunity to make it possible to charge them with being aligned with the PKK who are fighting for semi-autonomous rule, to which Davutoglu surreptitiously objected. It is now being left to the next prime minister to engineer this unlawful scheme to meet Erdogan’s draconian will.

Finally, while Davutoglu was busy in his effort to achieve an agreement with the E.U. to take back illegal migrants in exchange for visa-free entry for Turkish nationals to the Schengen region, Erdogan publicly belittled Davutoglu’s efforts to deprive him of any political gains that he could derive from his success.

The leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, condemned the way Davutoglu was forced out, stating that “Davutoglu’s resignation should not be perceived as an integral party issue. All democracy supporters must resist this palace coup.”

Interestingly enough, in what was seen as a farewell speech to the parliament, Davutoglu stated that “No one has ever heard a word against our president from my mouth, my tongue, my mind — and no one will.”

To me and many other observers, Davutoglu’s words expressed the precise opposite of what he appeared to be saying: that Erdogan is beyond criticism. There was no better diplomatic way of putting it lest he be accused by Erdogan of treason, as customarily befalls anyone who opposes his political positions on any issue.

Due to the turmoil throughout the Middle East, the influx of millions of Syrian refugees and the battle against ISIS, Turkey’s role has become increasingly important. Although the United States and the E.U. have grown weary of Erdogan’s absurd conduct, they feel compelled to deal with him, however distasteful that might be.

Leave it, of course, to Erdogan to drain every ounce of blood from Western powers to serve his personal agenda.

When the constitution is used as a tool for power grabbing, when conspiracy theories justify a cruel witch-hunt, when people are terrified to speak publicly about politics, when journalists are detained without trial, when the academic community is regularly attacked, when human rights are grossly violated, and when democratic principles are trampled upon, this is not a mere travesty for Turkey, it is a tragedy.

With the departure of Davuto?lu, and a rubber-stamp AK Party, Turkey has become a de facto dictatorship, and there is now no one to stand in Erdogan’s way. It is a sad day for the Turkish people, as the country is now governed by a ruthless dictator with no checks and balances, no accountability, and with no prospect of any change for the better as long as Erdogan remains in power.

The Turkish people should once again take to the streets but this time they should remain persistent until Erdogan relents or resigns. Otherwise, Turkey will continue to rapidly race toward an ever bleaker future where freedom will be a thing of the past and an authoritarian regime led by a ruthless leader sets in."

EU-Digest

Syrian Refugee Crises: So far in 2016 the U.S. has admitted only 281 Syrian Refugees

US Turning Its Back On Syrian Refugees

Of the 4.2 million Syrians displaced since that country’s civil war began in 2011, the US has only taken in 2,290—or 0.0005 percent of the total number of refugees. 

CNN has reported that more than half the US's governors say they oppose letting Syrian refugees into their states, although the final say on this contentious immigration issue will fall to the federal government.

States protesting the admission of refugees range from Alabama and Georgia, to Texas and Arizona, to Michigan and Illinois, to Maine and New Hampshire. Among these 31 states, all of them but one have Republican governors.

Worthy News recently reported that out of a total of 281 refugees, the U.S. State Department has admitted only two Syrian Christians into the U.S. in the first two months of 2016.

According to Barnabas Aid, these figures show the injustice of the U.N. referral system towards Syrian Christians who are at a higher risk than most Muslim refugees because of the Islamic State's anti-Christian ideology.

Syrian Christians need special assistance because they do not live in U.N. refugee camps for fear of the Islamists refugees inside them. Instead, Christians seek shelter in schools, churches, or are crowded into their relatives' homes. Therefore they are at a disadvantage under U.N. resettlement programs that only provide aid and asylum for those registered inside U.N. refugee camps.

Republican Presidential candidate Texas Senator Ted Cruz (an Evangelical Christian)  plans to introduce legislation that would ban Muslim Syrian refugees from entering the U.S. If there is any presidential candidate who should appreciate the plight of refugees, it’s Cruz, whose father fled Castro’s regime in Cuba in the 1950s.

Donald Trump has pushed for increased surveillance of “certain mosques” and a specialized Muslim database to track their activities. 

Democratic presidential candidates, even though more positive in general, have, however, certainly not come up with any breakthrough proposals on solving the Syrian Refugee crises. .Bernie Sanders is content supporting Obama’s 10,000 Syrian refugee policy, while Hillary Clinton has called for an additional 65,000 Syrian refugees to be accepted over the next five years.

These are all ridiculously low numbers compared to the millions of Syrian refugees currently fleeing to Turkey and the EU.

In reality this is really pretty amazing, given that the refugee crises can certainly be traced back to failed Western Middle East foreign Policies under the leadership of the US.

EU-Digest

The Netherlands: Refugee Crises - Plan to fly in refugees from Turkey shows divisions in Dutch cabinet - Janene Pieters

European countries, including the Netherlands, must start taking in asylum seekers from Turkey through legal channels. And this must happen immediately, according to PvdA leader Diederik Samsom. His party wants Prime Minister Mark Rutte to advocate for an “air bridge” to bring hundreds of asylum seekers from Turkey to Europe per day, effective almost immediately at the European summit on the issue on Monday. Coalition party VVD is against this plan.

Samsom suggests that Europe takes “at least 400 asylum seekers a day” from Turkey for a trial period of a month. “As a sign of good will”, he said to the Volkskrant. “If the EU shows Turkey that we are serious about resolving the refugee crisis, Ankara will start acting against the human traffickers. Now mistrust reigns and nothing happens, except that humanitarian dramas grow by the hour.”

The PvdA leader believes that his proposal will jump-start the agreements made between the EU and Turkey in November. Turkey promised to slow the flow of asylum seekers to Greece. And in return the EU will give 3 billion euros in subsidies for asylum camps in Turkey, lift the visa requirements for Turks wanting to come to Europe and provide legal routes for recognized refugees to enter the EU. Samsom believes that the reason nothing has come of these plans as of yet, is that both parties are waiting for the other to take the first step.

Coalition partner VVD is 100 percent opposed to the plan. In reaction VVD leader Halbe Zijlstra told the Volkskrant that Turkey must first reduce the asylum flow to “zero” before an air bridge can be arranged. “Otherwise there will be two asylum flows and we will be doubly screwed”, he said to the newspaper. “If Europe does what Samsom proposes, we reward the inaction of the Turks and they will never come into action.”



Read more: Plan to fly in refugees from Turkey shows divisions in Dutch cabinet - NL Times

EU-Digest poll shows 78% consider total failure of US Middle East policy cause of EU refugee crises

In an EU-Digest poll held from September 14 to October 13 close to 79 % consider the total failure of  US Middle East policy as the major cause for the  EU refugee crises.

The lack of a strong EU- wides supported refugee policy is seen by 10.53% of those polled as the cause of the crises.

The fact that most Middle East governments are undemocratic and repressive is only seen by 5.26% as a potential cause for the crises. ISIS also ranks a low 5.26% as a factor influencing the EU refugee crises.

This month's EU-Digest poll looks at possible solutions for the Syria crises.

EU-Digest  

Refugee Crises: EU, Turkey agree on refugee action plan

Brussels and Ankara have set up an action plan on regulating the flow of refugees to Europe, according to media reports. New camps and coordinated border controls are the cornerstones of the plan

Read more: EU, Turkey agree on refugee action plan: reports | News | DW.COM | 04.10.2015

The EU Refugee Crises: Refugees And Reform In Europe - by Mohamed A. El-Erian

There is a simple truth beneath the growing human tragedy of Europe’s refugee crisis, and the European Union cannot address the massive influx of exhausted, desperate people in a manner compatible with its values unless governments and citizens acknowledge it. Simply put, the historic challenge confronting Europe also offers historic opportunities. The question is whether Europe’s politicians – who have failed to deliver on far less complicated issues over which they had a lot more control – can seize the moment.

The scale of the challenge is immense, with the flow of refugees extremely difficult to monitor and channel, let alone limit. Fleeing war and oppression, tens of thousands of people are risking life and limb to find refuge in Europe – a phenomenon that will continue as long as chaos persists in countries of origin, such as Syria, and countries facilitating transit, such as Iraq and Libya.

In the meantime, Europe’s transport networks are under stress, as are shelters, border crossings, and registration centers. Common asylum policies – including, for example, the basic rule that asylum-seekers should be registered at their point of entry into the EU – are not functioning or are being bypassed. And the cherished concept of effortless travel within the border-free Schengen Area is under threat.

These problems are aggravated by coordination failures. Attitudes toward refugees vary widely across countries, with Germany taking a particularly enlightened approach that contrasts sharply with Hungary’s notably heartless one. Some countries, such as the Czech Republic, have blocked deals to share the burden fairly among European Union members, including through mandatory quotas.

Europe has the opportunity to turn today’s refugee crisis into a catalyst for renewal and progress. Let us hope that its politicians stop bickering and start working together to take advantage of this opening. If they fail, the momentum behind regional integration – which has brought peace, prosperity, and hope to hundreds of millions of people – will weaken considerably, to the detriment of all.

Read more: Refugees And Reform In Europe » Social Europe