What's the greatest risk to Turkey's economy? - by Barın Kayaoğlu

Any one of the following problems would ring alarm bells  for an emerging market: a slowing economy,rising inflation,distrustful  citizens exchanging local currency deposits for dollars whenever possible, rising tide of violence scaring away foreign  tourists and hurting hard currency reserves and concerned foreign  investors eyeing the exit because of a bearish stock exchange and a possible hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

The Turkish currency, which had an average value of 1.90 to the dollar, is likely to decline further and surpass the three-lira threshold soon. “Never mind three, it could even be tr/dolar-3-lira to the dollar,”  wrote Mert Yildiz, a senior economist at the prestigious economic and  financial analysis firm Roubini Global Economics.

According to one  report, because the AKP has used dollar figures to boast of its role in  the “Turkish economic miracle,” the bleeding in the lira means Turkey could lose its place in the G-20, the group representing the world’s top 20 economies.

<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/turkey-economy-political-uncertainties-greatest-risk.html">Read more: What's the greatest risk to Turkey's economy? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East</a></div>

Read more: What's the greatest risk to Turkey's economy? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

Turkey - Refugees: Outcry over Bodrum migrant tragedy

Relatives of people who drowned as two boats sank after leaving southwest Turkey have identified the bodies.

At least 12 people believed to be Syrian refugees died off the coast of Bodrum peninsula as they headed for the Greek island of Kos.

Twelve bodies including five children were recovered. Seven people were rescued. Two reached the shore in life jackets.

Among the victims were Aylin Kurdi, 3 and his brother and Galip 5.

Images of Aylin lying face down on a beach have been published across the world sparking a fierce debate over the ethics (link contains the images) of showing a dead child’s body

Thousands of migrants have died this year trying to reach Europe by sea.
Almost 100 people are said to have been rescued by Turkish vessels on the same night as they tried to reach Kos.

Read more: Outcry over Bodrum migrant tragedy | euronews, world news

Global Economy: US and Chinese Economies are in "lockstep" and this could spell major trouble for US

Let no one fool you - specially not the Wall Street "news makers.

Both the US and Chinese Economies are in lockstep and the US economy could get  in big trouble because of that.

The investment relationship that has blossomed between China and the U.S., even though it has benefited both countries, has also made both of their economies very dependent on each other, but the US more so than China.

Chinese companies have started  more companies or joint ventures in the U.S., thereby increasing the number of Americans working for Chinese firms.In a sense China has now also become a supplier of secondary capital to the USA, in addition to the regular  US debt they have been buying up..

Another alarming fact is that based on the present (June 2015 figures) US debt to China stands at $1.272 trillion,.

That's roughly one-fifth of the $6.175 trillion held by foreign countries. The rest of the $18 trillion debt is owned by either the American people, or by the U.S. government itself.

The United States has thus allowed China to become one of its biggest bankers, to provide the American people low consumer prices.

This selling of debt to China is mainly used by the US to help the US economy to grow by funding federal government programs. It has also kept  U.S. interests rates artificially low. However, what very people want to talk about, specially the financial world, is that China's increasing ownership of U.S. debt is shifting the economic balance of power in China's favor.

China's position as America's largest banker also gives it considerable political leverage. Consequently every now and then China threatens to sell part of its US debt holdings. It knows that, if it did so, U.S. interest rates would rise, which would slow U.S economic growth to a trickle.

As China grew economically stronger it has also been calling for a new global currency to replace the dollar, which is presently used in most international transactions. China usually makes this call whenever the U.S. lets the value of the US dollar drop, which makes the debt China holds less valuable.

China certainly is not so stupid to call in its US debt all at once. If it did so, the demand for the dollar would plummet like a rock. A dollar collapse would disrupt international markets worse than the 2008 financial crises and China's economy would suffer along with everyone else's.

It's more likely that China will slowly begin selling off its US Treasury holdings.

Bottom line the financial poker game between the two most powerful economic players in the world is certainly not over yet, but China is holding some very powerful cards in its hand.

The financial world better sit up and start smelling the roses.

EU-Digest

Wanted Dead or Alive: ISIS' Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi profiled - by Pamela Engel

WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,

The world knows little of the Islamic State terror group's brutal leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but a new article from counterterrorism expert Will McCants provides one of the most extensive accounts yet of his background.

McCants, director of the Project on US Relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution, wrote an upcoming book on the Islamic State — aka ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh — and researched Baghdadi's life to explain his rise to become one of the most wanted terrorists in the world.

Since Baghdadi became the self-proclaimed "caliph" of ISIS in 2014, he has only appeared in public once, at a mosque in Mosul, Iraq. He was rumored to have died in an air strike earlier this year, but ISIS subsequently released a statement from him along with proof that he was still alive.

Even with new information about his life tricking out in the press, Baghdadi — aka Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Al-Badri — remains a mysterious and reclusive figure.

Click on the link below to know more about his background, as laid out by McCants in his Brookings essay.

Read more: ISIS' Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi profiled - Business Insider

Germany: Tapping refugees to combat Germany′s labor shortage - "and Europe's aging population"

Migrants are needed as the EU population ages

In Germany, two things are consistently low. One is the unemployment rate; the other is the birth rate.

At 6.4 percent, the number of jobless people looking for work defies labor data in other European countries whose economies aren't nearly as robust.

But the birth rate, one of the lowest in the world, is a lamentable statistic that poses a strong dilemma for German employers.

How long will it take, managers here wonder, for Germany's economic prowess to erode once older workers start retiring without anyone to replace them?

On the other hand, the legions of refugees fleeing war in the Middle East and despotic regimes in Africa might just provide a badly needed source of labor that could help Germany overcome its looming demographic crunch, the government said Tuesday.

Labor Minister Andrea Nahles told journalists that although the labor market on the whole continued to be "an important anchor of stability in Germany," there were many areas of the German economy that had a shortage of skilled labor.

"We want to use this situation to open up the opportunity of a new and better life in Germany for the refugees who have come to us legitimately," Nahles told reporters as she presented the lastest official data on Europe's largest economy.

Note EU-Digest: What now appears to be a refugee drama could eventually prove to be a blessing in disguise for the whole EU in solving shortage of skilled labor and Europe's aging population.

Read more: Tapping refugees to combat Germany′s labor shortage | Business | DW.COM | 02.09.2015

Eurozone surprises with fall in unemployment

A sharp decline in Italy has helped the Eurozone’s unemployment figures fall to their lowest level in more than three years.

The unexpected fall surprised analysts. It now stands at 10.9%, and for the entire 28-member EU unemployment is at 9.5%, the lowest since June 2011.

Eurozone unemployment had been stubbornly stuck at over 11% for the last three months, but the picture remains uneven. Although youth unemployment at last showed signs of dropping after years of posting above-average figures, in some countries the young unemployed see little change.

For example, Europe’s unemployment leaders, Germany at 4.7% and Malta and the Czech Republic, with 5.1%, have found jobs for nearly all their school leavers, but in Greece and Spain, with 25% and 22% unemployment respectively, the drain of young workers abroad continues as their economies offer nothing for them.

Within the Eurozone only three members saw their unemployment rise in July; Finland, Lithuania, and France.

Read more: Eurozone surprises with fall in unemployment | euronews, economy

Iceland: 'Refugees Are Our Best Friends': In Iceland, Communities Campaign To House Syrians, Ease Europe's Migrant Crisis - by Erin Banco

“It breaks my heart to see what's happening and I know I can help, and I will in any way possible,” Magnusdottir said in an interview with IBTimes. “We don't have a lot of money but we have food on our table and water, we have clothes on our backs and a roof over our heads, and we have each other. Some of these people are watching their children and parents die or suffer. I've started to save money as much as we can afford so I can maybe help someone.”

The campaign is part of a concerted effort to see refugees as people -- as individuals with skills to offer their host countries. In an open letter to Iceland's minister of welfare, Bjorgvinsdottir wrote, "Refugees are our future spouses, best friends, our next soul mate, the drummer in our children’s band, our next colleague, Miss Iceland 2022."

Note EU-Digest: This act by Iceland is worthy of many kudos - contrary to the lackluster reaction by many EU states,  who can't, or don't want to get their act together to assist in this human tragedy. Most of us in Europe call ourselves Christians but we seem to have forgotten a basic biblical principle found in 1. John 3:17-18 - "But if anyone has the world's goods and sees his brother in need, yet closes his heart against him, how does God's love abide in him? Little children, let us not love in word or talk but in deed and in truth."  

Read more: 'Refugees Are Our Best Friends': In Iceland, Communities Campaign To House Syrians, Ease Europe's Migrant Crisis