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November 7, 2018
November 6, 2018
US ECONOMY: COULD RECORD US DEFICIT TRIGGER THE NEXT RECESSION: ? "As U.S. trade gap widens to unimaginable hights."
The U.S. trade deficit rose to a seven-month high in September as
imports surged to a record high amid strong domestic demand, offsetting a
rebound in exports.
The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion, widening for a fourth straight month. Data for August was revised to show the trade deficit rising to $53.3 billion instead of the previously reported $53.2 billion.
Could the US Economy collapse?
But here's the bigger question that retail investors and Wall Street are currently asking: Is the current stock market correction over? Given the many headwinds facing stocks and the U.S. and/or global economy, the answer may not be what investors want to hear.
Here are 25 reasons and/or scenarios that could cause the stock market to head substantially lower than where it's currently valued.
1. The ongoing trade war with China escalates, raising material costs, curbing consumer spending, and hurting corporate profits.
2. Corporate share buybacks fail to boost per-share profits as much as expected.
3. Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, hurting the chance of Republicans to pass further fiscal stimulus legislation.
4. The federal budget deficit continues to soar, placing added emphasis on our growing national debt, currently at more than $21 trillion.
5. The U.S. dollar keeps strengthening, placing pressure on exports and worsening the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries.
6. FANG stocks – that's Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet) -- continue to draw the ire of short-sellers.
7. The Federal Reserve gets overly aggressive with interest rate hikes, sapping lending demand.
8. The yield curve flattens, reducing the desire of banks to lend money.
9. Interest rates rise, providing incentive for investors to ditch volatile equities for the safety of bonds and bank CDs.
10. Britain falls into a "hard Brexit." With few or no trade deals in place, the U.K. falls into recession, taking the U.S. and other developed countries with it.
11. China's economy experiences its slowest growth in decades, placing pressure on its ability to import from the U.S. and other key players.
12. The U.S. housing market shows signs of weakening, with important markets like California seeing a steep drop-off in new home sales.
13. Credit-card delinquencies begin to trickle higher, demonstrating the inability of consumers to meet their payment obligations.
14. The subprime auto loan market bubble bursts.
15. The U.S. goes to war, regardless of the reason or the country in question.
16. An errant tweet from President Trump stirs Wall Street and investors.
17. A flash crash caused by computer algorithms results in substantially reduced liquidity and perpetuates a rapid move lower in the stock market.
18. Investor emotions (especially those of day traders) get out of hand and send traders running for the exit.
19. The unemployment rate, which is at a 49-year low, begins to rise, signaling peak employment and the possibility of a weakening economy.
20. Disruption in important oil-producing countries causes crude prices to skyrocket or plunge. Either way, it could create sticker shock or job losses and adversely impact the U.S. economy.
21. U.S. GDP data shows slowing growth, which, in turn, cools investor expectations for stocks, sending them lower.
22. Inflation comes in far lower than expected, signaling that businesses have little pricing power. The prospect of deflation could wreak havoc on corporate earnings, causing the market to fall.
23. The U.S. debt ceiling is hit (yet again), but the political divide in Congress becomes too great for lawmakers to overcome, allowing the shutdown to perpetuate for months.
24. European debt crisis 2.0 hits, with countries like Italy unable to dig their way out of years of loose borrowing.
25. A widely followed pundit, such as Warren Buffett, sounds the cry of the stock market being overvalued.
In other words, there is no shortage of reasons the stock market could tumble from its recent all-time highs.
Bottom-line, however -it does not look good for the US Economy as the deficit is coming close to a trillion US dollars.Impossible to pay it back, unless by slashing government spending, and increasing taxes.
EU-Digest
The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion, widening for a fourth straight month. Data for August was revised to show the trade deficit rising to $53.3 billion instead of the previously reported $53.2 billion.
Could the US Economy collapse?
But here's the bigger question that retail investors and Wall Street are currently asking: Is the current stock market correction over? Given the many headwinds facing stocks and the U.S. and/or global economy, the answer may not be what investors want to hear.
Here are 25 reasons and/or scenarios that could cause the stock market to head substantially lower than where it's currently valued.
1. The ongoing trade war with China escalates, raising material costs, curbing consumer spending, and hurting corporate profits.
2. Corporate share buybacks fail to boost per-share profits as much as expected.
3. Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, hurting the chance of Republicans to pass further fiscal stimulus legislation.
4. The federal budget deficit continues to soar, placing added emphasis on our growing national debt, currently at more than $21 trillion.
5. The U.S. dollar keeps strengthening, placing pressure on exports and worsening the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries.
6. FANG stocks – that's Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet) -- continue to draw the ire of short-sellers.
7. The Federal Reserve gets overly aggressive with interest rate hikes, sapping lending demand.
8. The yield curve flattens, reducing the desire of banks to lend money.
9. Interest rates rise, providing incentive for investors to ditch volatile equities for the safety of bonds and bank CDs.
10. Britain falls into a "hard Brexit." With few or no trade deals in place, the U.K. falls into recession, taking the U.S. and other developed countries with it.
11. China's economy experiences its slowest growth in decades, placing pressure on its ability to import from the U.S. and other key players.
12. The U.S. housing market shows signs of weakening, with important markets like California seeing a steep drop-off in new home sales.
13. Credit-card delinquencies begin to trickle higher, demonstrating the inability of consumers to meet their payment obligations.
14. The subprime auto loan market bubble bursts.
15. The U.S. goes to war, regardless of the reason or the country in question.
16. An errant tweet from President Trump stirs Wall Street and investors.
17. A flash crash caused by computer algorithms results in substantially reduced liquidity and perpetuates a rapid move lower in the stock market.
18. Investor emotions (especially those of day traders) get out of hand and send traders running for the exit.
19. The unemployment rate, which is at a 49-year low, begins to rise, signaling peak employment and the possibility of a weakening economy.
20. Disruption in important oil-producing countries causes crude prices to skyrocket or plunge. Either way, it could create sticker shock or job losses and adversely impact the U.S. economy.
21. U.S. GDP data shows slowing growth, which, in turn, cools investor expectations for stocks, sending them lower.
22. Inflation comes in far lower than expected, signaling that businesses have little pricing power. The prospect of deflation could wreak havoc on corporate earnings, causing the market to fall.
23. The U.S. debt ceiling is hit (yet again), but the political divide in Congress becomes too great for lawmakers to overcome, allowing the shutdown to perpetuate for months.
24. European debt crisis 2.0 hits, with countries like Italy unable to dig their way out of years of loose borrowing.
25. A widely followed pundit, such as Warren Buffett, sounds the cry of the stock market being overvalued.
In other words, there is no shortage of reasons the stock market could tumble from its recent all-time highs.
Bottom-line, however -it does not look good for the US Economy as the deficit is coming close to a trillion US dollars.Impossible to pay it back, unless by slashing government spending, and increasing taxes.
Unlike the trillion dollar budget deficits that occurred during the Obama administration that were temporary and largely the result of the Great Recession, the Trump deficits that will soon reach and exceed $1 trillion are permanent and will only get worse in the years ahead.
The
Trump deficits are the result of changes in federal spending and
revenue that will continue to be in place until some president and
Congress decide to reverse them, that is, to increase taxes and make
cuts to popular programs.
EU-Digest
November 5, 2018
Iran: don!t threaten us, Iranians tell US
Don't threaten us,' Iranians tell US as sanctions set to return -
Read full report at:
http://aje.io/mkcgg
November 4, 2018
US Midterm Elections: A Nation in Turmoil Prepares to Deliver a Verdict on Trump - by Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin
The
tumultuous 2018 midterm campaign, shaped by conflicts over race and
identity and punctuated by tragedy, barreled through its final weekend
as voters prepared to deliver a verdict on the first half of President
Trump’s term, with Republicans bracing for losses in the House and state
capitals but hopeful they would prevail in Senate races in areas where
Mr. Trump is popular.
The president
was set to storm across two states Saturday, two Sunday and three Monday
in an effort to pick off Senate seats in Indiana, Florida and a handful
of other battlegrounds where Republicans hope to add to their one-seat
majority in the chamber. Democrats and liberal activists, galvanized by
opposition to Mr. Trump, gathered Saturday to knock on doors and make
turnout calls from Pennsylvania to Illinois to Washington to try to
erase the G.O.P.’s 23-seat House majority.
The
run-up to the election, widely seen as a referendum on Mr. Trump’s
divisive persona and hard-line policy agenda, has revealed deep strains
in the president’s political coalition and left him confined to campaign
in a narrow band of conservative communities. Republicans’ intermittent
focus on favorable economic news, such as the Friday report showing strong job growth, has been overwhelmed by Mr. Trump’s message of racially incendiary nationalism.
While
Mr. Trump retains a strong grip on many red states and working-class
white voters, his jeremiads against immigrants and penchant for ridicule
have proved destabilizing, with the party losing more affluent whites and moderates in metropolitan areas key to control of the House.
Note EU-Digest: Amazing, but also very sad, what has happened to the US since January
20, 2017, when Trump became President. Despite claims by the US
President (who has been found to have lied by independent research
tanks more than 6400 times since his inauguration) and his Republican
base, that the economy is doing fantastic, the truth is quite different -
see https://www.chicagotribune.com/…/ct-perspec-trump-economy-j… -
Basically just about every thing the Trump Administration has been tampering
with has been a disaster, starting with the appointment of his
dysfunctional scandal ridden Cabinet - Affordable healthcare for
everyone including for those with existing preconditions - US Foreign
Policy - Clean Air Policies - Gay Rights-Equal Rights - Curbing white
supremacy and pro-neo-Nazi groups/hate crimes-Gun Control -migrant and
immigration policies - Freedom of Speech and the list can go on and on.
AMERICAN VOTERS ARE STILL ABLE TO MAKE THE COUNTRY CHANGE COURSE, AWAY
FROM TUMBLING DOWN THE CLIFF - BY USING THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE ON TUESDAY
NOVEMBER 6.
November 2, 2018
The Israel - Saudi - US Alliance: Saudi Arabia hosts rare visit of U.S. Evangelical Christian figures - Stephen Kali
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a rare meeting
with American evangelical Christians on Thursday, as the
ultra-conservative Muslim kingdom seeks to open up more to the world and
repair an image of religious intolerance.
The delegation was led by communications strategist Joel Rosenberg and included former U.S. congresswoman
Michele Bachmann, according to an emailed statement by the group, as
well as heads of American evangelical organizations, some with ties to
Israel.
"It was a historic moment for the Saudi Crown Prince to openly welcome Evangelical Christian leaders to the Palace. We were encouraged by the candor of the two-hour conversation with him today," the statement said.
A visit by such prominent non-Muslim leaders, who estimate they represent about 60 million people, is a rare act of religious openness for Saudi Arabia, which hosts the holiest sites in Islam and bans the practice of other religions.
Some of the figures' support for Israel, which the kingdom does not recognize, is also striking. For instance, Mike Evans, founder of the Jerusalem Prayer Team, describes himself on his website as "a devout American-Christian Zionist leader".
Saudi Arabia has maintained for years that normalizing relations with Israel hinges on its withdrawal from Arab lands captured in the 1967 Middle East war - territory Palestinians seek for a future state.
But increased tension between Tehran and Riyadh has fueled speculation that shared interests may push Saudi Arabia and Israel to work together against what they regard as a common Iranian threat.
Prince Mohammed, who in recent years has loosened strict social rules and arrested Saudi clerics deemed extremists, said in April that Israelis are entitled to live peacefully on their own land. A month earlier, Saudi Arabia opened its air space for the first time to a commercial flight to Israel.
Several members of the delegation, which met with Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in the United Arab Emirates earlier in the week, have also advised U.S. President Donald Trump on faith issues.
Note EU-Digest: It is amazing to see how American Evangelicals - who are a solid political support group for the US Republicans - have walked into this trap, set-up by the Trump Administration, as they, together with their allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, seem to be preparing for an attack on Iran.
"It was a historic moment for the Saudi Crown Prince to openly welcome Evangelical Christian leaders to the Palace. We were encouraged by the candor of the two-hour conversation with him today," the statement said.
A visit by such prominent non-Muslim leaders, who estimate they represent about 60 million people, is a rare act of religious openness for Saudi Arabia, which hosts the holiest sites in Islam and bans the practice of other religions.
Some of the figures' support for Israel, which the kingdom does not recognize, is also striking. For instance, Mike Evans, founder of the Jerusalem Prayer Team, describes himself on his website as "a devout American-Christian Zionist leader".
Saudi Arabia has maintained for years that normalizing relations with Israel hinges on its withdrawal from Arab lands captured in the 1967 Middle East war - territory Palestinians seek for a future state.
But increased tension between Tehran and Riyadh has fueled speculation that shared interests may push Saudi Arabia and Israel to work together against what they regard as a common Iranian threat.
Prince Mohammed, who in recent years has loosened strict social rules and arrested Saudi clerics deemed extremists, said in April that Israelis are entitled to live peacefully on their own land. A month earlier, Saudi Arabia opened its air space for the first time to a commercial flight to Israel.
Several members of the delegation, which met with Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in the United Arab Emirates earlier in the week, have also advised U.S. President Donald Trump on faith issues.
Note EU-Digest: It is amazing to see how American Evangelicals - who are a solid political support group for the US Republicans - have walked into this trap, set-up by the Trump Administration, as they, together with their allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, seem to be preparing for an attack on Iran.
Given the
uproar such an attack would cause in America, and around the world,
this visit by American Evangelicals to Saudi Arabia can only be
described as an effort to appease the Evangelicals as to the "good
intentions" of the Saudi's.
Unbelievable,
is also the timing of this Evangelical delegation's visit to Saudi
Arabia, which coincides with the investigations going on as to the
horrendous murder at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, on the 2nd of
October, of the Washington Post Journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the
daily changing and confusing explanations about this murder, given by
the Saudi Monarch.
This by itself should have been a major reason for the Evangelicals not to visit Saudi Arabia.
November 1, 2018
October 31, 2018
EU Saudi Relations: Calls for Saudi arms embargo pit EU values against interests
Pressure is growing for the European Union to consider an arms
embargo on Saudi Arabia after Germany, Austria and the European
Parliament called for an end to weapons sales over the killing of Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
In the space of a few hours that highlighted tensions over the matter, Germany's Angela Merkel reaffirmed last Friday (Oct 26) that her country would not deliver any arms to Saudi Arabia until Mr Khashoggi's death was explained, while French President Emmanuel Macron said such moves smacked of populist "demagoguery".
EU ambassadors may formally discuss the issue after a rare request to do so by governments, two diplomats said last Friday, and the Netherlands is lobbying for a new EU regime to sanction human rights abuses, regardless of where they happen.
But the debate in Brussels and in EU capitals is also reviving familiar splits in the bloc's foreign policy, with Europe's main powers following their own economic and political interests that tend to undermine any forceful EU foreign policy that aims to be guided by democracy and human rights.
The Belgian region of Wallonia, which owns firearms manufacturer FN Herstal, has said it will examine future requests for arms export licences to its top weapons client with "the greatest circumspection", following Mr Khashoggi's murder.
Austria, which holds the EU's six-month presidency, wants a halt to
arms sales, and Germany will stop approving weapons exports until Mr
Khashoggi's murder is cleared up. France ignored such calls.
Read more: Calls for Saudi arms embargo pit EU values against interests, Europe News & Top Stories - The Straits Times
In the space of a few hours that highlighted tensions over the matter, Germany's Angela Merkel reaffirmed last Friday (Oct 26) that her country would not deliver any arms to Saudi Arabia until Mr Khashoggi's death was explained, while French President Emmanuel Macron said such moves smacked of populist "demagoguery".
EU ambassadors may formally discuss the issue after a rare request to do so by governments, two diplomats said last Friday, and the Netherlands is lobbying for a new EU regime to sanction human rights abuses, regardless of where they happen.
But the debate in Brussels and in EU capitals is also reviving familiar splits in the bloc's foreign policy, with Europe's main powers following their own economic and political interests that tend to undermine any forceful EU foreign policy that aims to be guided by democracy and human rights.
The Belgian region of Wallonia, which owns firearms manufacturer FN Herstal, has said it will examine future requests for arms export licences to its top weapons client with "the greatest circumspection", following Mr Khashoggi's murder.
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