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Ukrain political and ethnic crises |
The crisis in eastern Ukraine is far from over.
On Monday, the moderate mayor of Kharkiv, the country’s
second-largest city, was shot while riding his bicycle. Pro-Russian
separatists have seized another government building in the region, and
some are holding hostage a group of European military observers. The
United States, convinced the chaos is all being driven by Moscow,
slapped new sanctions on top Russian officials Monday, and the Europeans
will probably go along.
To understand what’s driving this crisis, though, it’s necessary to look
at the region the way its residents see it, not just the way it appears
to the outside world.
The dominant Western narrative is all too familiar: It’s good guys
vs. bad guys. Russian aggression against Ukraine and covert backing for
separatist groups are the main sources of conflict, creating a very real
danger that southeastern Ukraine may soon erupt into full-scale war or
split off and join Russia.
Throw in the kidnappings of journalists,
targeted killings of local politicians and residents and renewed
Ukrainian military operations against the separatists, and the whole
region appears to be in flames—and it’s all Moscow’s doing. As U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry put it over the weekend, the Kremlin is
behind the “distraction, deception and destabilization” in eastern
Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the real story is much more complicated, and it has as
much to do with the murky nature of Ukrainian politics as it does with
Russia’s blatant meddling. On one level, the clashes in eastern Ukraine
are just the latest battle between the country’s powerful and fractious
oligarchs, for whom business interests—not the fate of Ukraine—are
always priority number one.
The good news is that the separatists are actually quite isolated,
according to recent accounts by the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe’s monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine. Even
Kerry, despite his stern rhetoric, has indicated that fewer than 30
buildings have been occupied. And a recent poll conducted by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology found that the majority of
southeastern Ukraine’s residents do not favor joining Russia; 70 percent
want to remain in Ukraine, and only 15 percent support secession; 60
percent do not approve of armed separatists seizing government
buildings.
There is no doubt that Russia has been trying to destabilize Ukraine
in the wake of the annexation of Crimea and that both sides could yet
tumble into full-scale military conflict. But Russia is not the only
factor shaping public opinion toward the central government in Kyiv, the
Ukrainian capital.
From the outside, the Kyiv government is usually depicted as a band
of selfless reformers. In fact, the differences in how it is perceived
across the country are vast, with 78 percent of western Ukrainians but
only 16 percent of easterners registering their approval in one recent
poll.Easterners (and southerners, for that matter) see a cabinet
dominated by former prime minister and current presidential candidate
Yulia Timoshenko and her Fatherland political party, whose base of
support is in the pro-European west of the country. Both the Party of
Regions and Vitaly Klitchko’s UDAR party refused to join the government,
leaving it dangerously low on eastern support.
The importance of looking beyond simplistic narratives also extends
to politics at the regional level. When the Kyiv interim government
appointed steel magnate and local oligarch Serhiy Taruta as governor of
Donetsk, a major city close to the Russian border, he encountered strong
local opposition, and the Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and
Luhansk, soon became the main hotbed of separatist activity. Why? Many
experts point to the influence of Ukraine’s richest businessman Rinat
Akhmetov, who reportedly holds considerable sway over Donbas’s economic
life, not to mention the activities of local law enforcement and
municipal officials.
In Ukraine, political power almost always translates into control of
property. The business elite of southeastern Ukraine is not prepared to
surrender to a Kyiv government it sees as an instrument of Timoshenko
(an old-school oligarch in her own right), and is likely using all means
at its disposal, including the separatist card, to make its point.
The May 25 presidential election is the next big test, pitting
Timoshenko against Petro Poroshenko, a prominent businessman who has
held many senior posts in previous Ukrainian governments. A Timoshenko
victory would spell trouble for the region’s business elite. Thus, the
separatist unrest, which has put the actual viability of the elections
in jeopardy, may be a hedging tactic by local oligarchs.
Ukrainian political insiders believe that Timoshenko’s control over
the interim government in Kyiv has set off enough alarm bells that many
oligarchs are pooling their resources and backing Poroshenko. (There is
some evidence that Poroshenko and Klitchko traveled to Vienna in late
March to hammer out a deal with Dmitro Firtash, a prominent Ukrainian
oligarch who was recently indicted by U.S. law enforcement and is
fighting extradition on racketeering charges.) After all, various
Ukrainian oligarchs helped bankroll the Maidan movement, the protests
that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych in February, because they were
angry with the Yanukovych “family” for squeezing them out of lucrative
businesses. They certainly do not want to see Timoshenko install herself
as the top dog and make their lives miserable.
The unseemliness of Ukrainian politics certainly makes for strange
bedfellows. In this instance, it has put some Ukrainian oligarchs on the
same side as Vladimir Putin and against Timoshenko, who has long been
rumored to be on good terms with the Russian president. Both the Kremlin
and these oligarchs have an interest in undermining the current
government in Kyiv. The Kremlin and the oligarchs may have their own
distinct reasons for doing so, but both see the separatist card as a
source of extra leverage.
Read more: It’s Not All Russia’s Fault - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace