Energy: The Dangerous Energy Poker Game:Between Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Russia and the USA

Geo-Political Poker Game Or Saudi Blackmail?

"After two years of stable prices at around $105 to $110 a barrel, Brent blend, the international benchmark fell from $112 a barrel in June to around $65 on Friday, December 12 . “What is the reason for the United States and some U.S. allies wanting to drive down the price of oil?” Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asked rhetorically in October. His answer? “To harm Russia.” - says Mohamad Bazzi in a report he wrote for Reuters

That is partially true, but Saudi Arabia’s gambit is more complex.

The kingdom has two targets in its latest oil war: it is trying to squeeze U.S. shale oil—which requires higher prices to remain competitive with conventional production—out of the market. More broadly, the Saudis are also punishing two rivals, Russia and Iran, for their support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the Syrian civil war. Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, regional and world powers have played out a series of proxy battles there.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been arming many of the Syrian rebels, the Iranian regime—and to a lesser extent, Russia—have provided the weapons and funding to keep Assad in power.

Russia and Iran are highly dependent on stable oil prices. By many estimates, Russia needs prices at around $100 a barrel to meet its budget commitments. Iran, facing Western sanctions and economic isolation, needs even higher prices. Already, Iran has taken an economic hit from Saudi actions.

On Nov. 30, as a result of OPEC’s decision not to increase production, the Iranian rial dropped nearly six percent against the dollar.

The Saudis believe it can protect itself from the impact of the price drops. It can always increase oil production to make up for falling prices, or soften the blow of lower profits by accessing some of its $750 billion stashed in foreign reserves.

Still, Saudi Arabia is playing a dangerous game—there is little evidence that authoritarian regimes like Russia and Iran would change their behavior under economic pressure. Worse, the Saudi policy could backfire, making Russia and especially Iran more intransigent in countering Saudi influence in the Middle East.

In the meantime  OPEC Gulf members and crisis-hit producer Russia held the line on resisting oil output cuts, a message that helped send oil to a fresh five-year low on Tuesday December 16.

A near-$20 drop in prices since OPEC declined to cut output at a Nov. 27 meeting has yet to prompt the Gulf members - who overruled calls for output cuts by poorer members such as Venezuela - to reverse course.

Russia has said it would not cut production even if oil prices fell below $60 per barrel - far below some $100 a barrel it needs to balance its budget - a message reinforced on Tuesday by energy minister Alexander Novak arriving at a gas producers summit in Qatar.

"If we cut, the importer countries will increase their production and this will mean a loss of our niche market," he told reporters, speaking through an interpreter.

"We plan to preserve the plan for 2014 production without any increase or decrease," he said.
His comments came as the rouble fell to a new all-time low despite the central bank's steep rate hike on Monday.

Oil prices dropped to below $59 per barrel on Tuesday for the first time since 2009 and are now down almost by a half since June due to weak demand and growing supply from the United States.

The collapse of the rouble and plunging oil revenue present one of the biggest challenges for President Vladimir Putin during his 15-year rule at a time when the Russian economy is already struggling under Western sanctions over Ukraine.

Novak said Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, will maintain its output levels even if there was no guarantee prices would not go much lower.

"No one will tell you this," Novak said when asked what was the floor for oil prices.
He also said Russia agreed with the view of Saudi Arabia that the oil market would eventually stabilize itself.

What is certain however is that the oil market and the world economy  faces an uncertain outlook in 2015 as tumbling oil prices resulting from global oversupply stoke geopolitical tensions in key producers of crude, analysts say.

In fact, if no one eventually blinks in this rapidly deteriorating volatile energy based geo-political dispute, it potentially has the ability to escalate on a global scale and turn into a military conflict involving all super powers which, without any doubt, would mean the end of civilization as we know it.

EU-Digest

"Politiek Nederland is in feite een kruidenierszaak": Het onpolitieke van de politiek in Nederland - door Arnold J. van der Kluft

De
enige kritisch theoreticus in Nederland die enigszins als “publieke
intellectueel” beschouwd kan worden, Willem Schinkel, heeft rondweg
gezegd en geschreven dat alle politieke partijen in Nederland op D66
willen lijken. Zoals Unilever ooit een stuk of tien, twaalf
margarinemerken in de schappen hield, zo heeft D66 merken variërend van
een goed-christelijke variant als de ChristenUnie tot en met de
proletig-protofascistische PVV in het schap van de Tweede Kamer. Als het
er op aankomt zijn ze allemaal voor privatisering van openbare
voorzieningen en als hervorming aangeduide afbraak van opgebouwde
sociale verworvenheden – of het nu de AOW is of het fenomeen algemeen
bindende CAO. Slechts twee partijen vallen buiten deze consensus, de
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij en de Partij voor de Dieren. Door
constructieve oppositie te zijn bij het huidige kabinet heeft de SGP
zich inmiddels ook aan D66 geconformeerd. De groene, overwegend
vrouwelijke, diervriendelijke partij blijft als enig buitenbeentje over.
De meeste mensen houden zich nu eenmaal aan de margarinemerken van D66,
of ze keren zich af van wat “de politiek” heet. Terecht, omdat “de
politiek” allang niet meer om verschillende mogelijkheden van vormgeving
van de maatschappij gaat. Het ging in Nederland meestal al om tienden
van procenten, nu is zelfs dat niet meer zo – het gaat er nu vooral om:
wie scheldt er het netst of het onnetst op de “allochtoon” – een woord
dat ik nog in “de politiek” geïntroduc - See more at:
http://www.krapuul.nl/overig/blog/833747/het-onpolitieke-van-de-politiek-in-nederland/#sthash.OqKgAES8.dpuf

De
enige kritisch theoreticus in Nederland die enigszins als “publieke
intellectueel” beschouwd kan worden, Willem Schinkel, heeft rondweg
gezegd en geschreven dat alle politieke partijen in Nederland op D66
willen lijken. Zoals Unilever ooit een stuk of tien, twaalf
margarinemerken in de schappen hield, zo heeft D66 merken variërend van
een goed-christelijke variant als de ChristenUnie tot en met de
proletig-protofascistische PVV in het schap van de Tweede Kamer. Als het
er op aankomt zijn ze allemaal voor privatisering van openbare
voorzieningen en als hervorming aangeduide afbraak van opgebouwde
sociale verworvenheden – of het nu de AOW is of het fenomeen algemeen
bindende CAO. Slechts twee partijen vallen buiten deze consensus, de
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij en de Partij voor de Dieren. Door
constructieve oppositie te zijn bij het huidige kabinet heeft de SGP
zich inmiddels ook aan D66 geconformeerd. De groene, overwegend
vrouwelijke, diervriendelijke partij blijft als enig buitenbeentje over.
De meeste mensen houden zich nu eenmaal aan de margarinemerken van D66,
of ze keren zich af van wat “de politiek” heet. Terecht, omdat “de
politiek” allang niet meer om verschillende mogelijkheden van vormgeving
van de maatschappij gaat. Het ging in Nederland meestal al om tienden
van procenten, nu is zelfs dat niet meer zo – het gaat er nu vooral om:
wie scheldt er het netst of het onnetst op de “allochtoon” – een woord
dat ik nog in “de politiek” geïntroduc - See more at:
http://www.krapuul.nl/overig/blog/833747/het-onpolitieke-van-de-politiek-in-nederland/#sthash.OqKgAES8.dpuf

De enige kritisch theoreticus in Nederland die enigszins als “publieke intellectueel” beschouwd kan worden, Willem Schinkel, heeft rondweg gezegd en geschreven dat alle politieke partijen in Nederland op D66 willen lijken.

Zoals Unilever ooit een stuk of tien, twaalf margarinemerken in de schappen hield, zo heeft D66 merken variërend van een goed-christelijke variant als de ChristenUnie tot en met de proletig
protofascistische PVV in het schap van de Tweede Kamer.

Als het er op aankomt zijn ze allemaal voor privatisering van openbare voorzieningen en als hervorming aangeduide afbraak van opgebouwde sociale verworvenheden – of het nu de AOW is of het fenomeen algemeen bindende CAO. Slechts twee partijen vallen buiten deze consensus, de Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij en de Partij voor de Dieren. Door constructieve oppositie te zijn bij het huidige kabinet heeft de SGP zich inmiddels ook aan D66 geconformeerd.

De groene, overwegend vrouwelijke, diervriendelijke partij blijft als enig buitenbeentje over. De meeste mensen houden zich nu eenmaal aan de margarinemerken van D66, of ze keren zich af van wat “de politiek” heet. Terecht, omdat “de politiek” allang niet meer om verschillende mogelijkheden van vormgeving van de maatschappij gaat.

\Het ging in Nederland meestal al om tienden van procenten, nu is zelfs dat niet meer zo – het gaat er nu vooral om: wie scheldt er het netst of het onnetst op de “allochtoon” – een woord dat ik nog in “de politiek” geïntroduceerd heb zien worden. Toen ging het er om krakers en actievoerders v/m in de Amsterdamse Nieuwmarktbuurt verdacht te maken: dat waren geen autochtone buurtbewoners. Menigeen moest een woordenboek ter hand nemen om te kijken waar dit over ging. Veertig jaar geleden. -

Klik hier voor het volledige verslag - Het onpolitieke van de politiek in Nederland | Krapuul

Turkey: - Egypt: The Slow Slide Toward Dictatorship Taking Place in Egypt and Turkey

Supporters of the governments of Egypt and Turkey have become adept at telling the world that under presidents Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan respectively, these countries are making progress toward more open and just
political systems.

In reality, they are nothing more than tin-pot dictatorships.< Over the weekend, Egyptian authorities detained, questioned, and deported my friend and colleague Michele Dunne as she sought to enter Egypt at the invitation of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.

Michele, who is the most well-respected Egypt analyst in Washington, has not been shy in her criticism of the Egyptian government.

Not to be outdone, yesterday the Turks arrested 27 people including journalists, TV producers, and police commanders on terrorism charges. All of the detainees are either members or suspected members of the Gulen movement.

Fethullah Gulen and his followers were at one time allied with Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, working together, for example, to subordinate the armed forces to civilian leaders, though at the expense of the rule of law and due process.

Note EU-Digest: the economies of both Egypt and Turkey have also taken a hit and are expected decline even more. The number of unemployed has also steadily increased in both countries.

 read more: The Slow Slide Toward Dictatorship Taking Place in Egypt and Turkey - Defense One

Turkey media arrests: Erdogan rejects EU criticism of Turkey curbing Press Freedom

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lashed out at the European Union after it criticised the mass arrest of opposition journalists at the weekend.

"The EU should mind its own business and keep its own opinions to itself," Mr Erdogan said, denying that the raids had infringed press freedom.

EU leaders have said the arrests were incompatible with "European values".

At least 24 journalists said to have close links with a US-based cleric are being held for plotting to seize power.

Sunday's raids targeted the Zaman newspaper and Samanyolu TV channel, which are described as close to Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, the spiritual leader of the Hizmet movement.

A former ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mr Gulen - who lives in self-imposed exile - is accused of running a "parallel state" within Turkey.

Read more: BBC News - Turkey media arrests: Erdogan rejects EU criticism

EU-Digest Poll on Ukraine election by pro-Russian dissidents shows 50% consider the election legitimate

The latest EU-Digest Poll open to all its readers from the 14th of November  through the 14th of December on the political legitimacy of Ukraine's recent  pro-Russian dissident election showed  the following results.(see illustration)

On the question if the Russian Ethnic population had the right to self determination 50% of those polled said they did.

This month poll, open through January 15, 2015, focuses on torture.

Is torture an acceptable method to extract information during interrogations of suspects?

This poll question is being asked in light of a report from the US Senate Intelligence Committee on the CIA's interrogation techniques after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, which details the methods the agency used against terrorism suspects.

The report says the techniques were ineffective, a point the agency disputes.

EU-Digest

Oil Industry - Royal Dutch Shell and other energy giants say they are for climate reform but finance the lobby to kill reform- by Lee Fang

Several fossil fuel interests are here at the United Nations climate negotiations, putting on their best public face in support of reducing carbon emissions. Despite the lofty rhetoric, with some pledging to lead the way in reducing carbon pollution, the same corporate actors are also fueling efforts to block any substantive reforms.

It’s been called the “Jekyll and Hyde Approach to Climate Change.” In other words, businesses are boosting their brand by appearing to support climate reforms, while working to block policies to achieve these goals at very same time.

Republic Report talked to several corporate lobbyists and business representatives at the summit this week about their ties to pressure groups working to block action on carbon reduction in the United States.

The Edison Electric Institute, a lobbying group that represents utility companies, many of which rely on coal-based power plants, is indicative of this approach. The group claims that it is “committed to addressing the challenge of climate change” and says its member companies, including American Electric Power, Duke Energy, Xcel Energy, and others, “have undertaken a wide range of initiatives over the last 30 years to reduce, avoid or sequester GHG emissions.”

But EEI doesn’t just support both sides of the aisle, they support both sides of the moral spectrum on climate change. Brian Wolff, the executive vice president of the group, told us that his organization is a dues-paying member of the American Legislative Exchange Council, a group that recently released a slew of anti-environmental template legislation to express support for abolishing the EPA, delaying greenhouse gas-related regulations, and undercut the federal government’s ability to enforce climate change rules, including on power plants.

“There are benefits of having stakeholder engagement,” Wolff contends. “We’re involved with many Republican, Democrat organizations,” said Wolff at an event in Lima sponsored by the European Union pavilion. Wolff told us that he sent a staffer to a recent ALEC conference to see “what is going on there and the action coming up,” but said he could not recall if his representative voted to approve ALEC’s new bills focused on climate change.

Shell Oil plays from a similar script. Shell, also a member of ALEC, was revealed recently in a Bloomberg News investigation to be a donor to a campaign in California to attack the state’s landmark climate law, AB32.

Read more: The fossil fuel industry’s Jekyll-and-Hyde trick: Back climate reforms while quietly financing lobby to kill them - Salon.com

Germany: Ifo think tank optimistic about German growth

Germany's Ifo economic institute has said the German economy will pick up steam next year and beyond. In its 2015 outlook, the think tank argued growth would be based on increased domestic consumption.

Germany's gross domestic product will expand by 1.5 percent next year, the Munich-based Ifo institute said Thursday as it presented ts 2015 outlook, revising an earlier estimate of just 1.2 percent growth.

The think tank appeared more optimistic than most of the country's other leading economic institutes, which predicted the German economy would grow by no more than 1.3 percent next year.

Ifo, for its part, argued the stronger pickup would ride on a wave of consumer confidence that had fueled domestic consumption.

Read more: Ifo think tank optimistic about German growth | Business | DW.DE | 11.12.2014