While undoing Brexit altogether looks almost as unlikely today as it
did in the immediate aftermath of the referendum last year, those who
think Britain might be better off staying in the European Union are
becoming more vocal as the complexities and potential costs of Brexit
become clearer.
Vince Cable — who was crowned leader of
the Liberal Democrats unopposed Thursday — has never supported leaving
the bloc and is “beginning to think Brexit may never happen.” Former
U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair last weekend suggested the U.K. could
stay in a reformed European Union. Even the director of the Vote Leave
campaign, Dominic Cummings, admitted on Twitter this week that there are
“some possible branches of the future” in which “leaving will be an
error.”
Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister
and European Council president, put it more poetically last month. “You
may say I am a dreamer. But I am not the only one,” he said, channelling
John Lennon.
In Westminster, anti-Brexit dreamers are
scarce but POLITICO spoke to some of those who believe Brexit could yet
be halted. The political odds might be stacked against them, but then
very few correctly predicted the referendum vote in the first place.
Here are nine scenarios in which Britain stays in the European Union:
1. Public opinion changes
Remainers
have been heartened by a number of polls since the June 8 election
which have suggested an uptick in support for staying in the European
Union, including one by Survation that found 54 percent of Brits would
now prefer to remain in the bloc.
However Joe Twyman,
head of political and social research at YouGov, which has been
monitoring public opinion since the referendum, said the shifts in views
had been too small to point of a definitive change of heart. He said
the country was still divided down the middle, much as it was in the
referendum vote itself but added that “things could change massively.”
“It
is almost certain that as things do actually start to occur then there
could be a movement in one way or another. People could say ‘this is
working out really well, yay us.’ And so support for Brexit rises
significantly. The opposite could be true if things go wrong.”
The
main political parties are all monitoring the situation through private
polling, according to Twyman. The “smart ones” understand the fluid
nature of [public opinion] and are aware that polls could change
significantly.
Read more: 9 ways Britain could stay in the European Union – POLITICO